The NBA playoffs are a mere five weeks away. Teams are starting to lock up spots, seedings are becoming more clear and every team in the hunt is trying to find its best version before the first round arrives. But who are the really dangerous teams? Not the best teams -- you have power rankings and the standings for that. Being good in the regular season is different from being dangerous in a playoff series. Your position impacts it. Some teams are really dangerous to a No. 4 seed but helpless against a No. 2 seed.
With that, hereâs a look at each team in the NBA playoff threat matrix.
THE CANNON FODDER
21. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are in the Westâs eighth seed by a half-game, but all of their competition is playing better right now, so even making it is going to be a problem. Then thereâs their defense. If you have the 30th-ranked defense in the NBA, you are not going to go anywhere. Thatâs just the reality. Could the Nuggets put up some points in a first-round series? Sure. But their inability to stop anyone is going to put a firm cap on their chances at actually coming out with the higher point total.
Best-case scenario: Nikola Jokicâs passing is coupled with an outlier shooting performance from Jamal Murray or Gary Harris and Denver sneaks up and steals two games from Golden State or San Antonio, boosting them into the offseason.
Worst-case scenario: The Nuggetsâ tough schedule to close undoes them, and they squander the chance at the eighth seed, entering a summer where they have to decide whether to invest long term in Danilo Gallinari and other veterans without any real proof of this team being good.
20. Jusuf Nurkic could change everything for Portland. Heâs dominating weak opponents, strong opponents, everyone. The squad trusts him with the ball, and he has rewarded them by being more of a willing passer than he ever was in Denver. With a third legit star and a significant bump in defense since the deadline, Portland might be able to put something together. The Blazers are this low because a certain amount of skepticism for the sample size, combined with their terrible perimeter defense, means Golden State or San Antonio would tear them to pieces. But Nurkic makes it interesting.
Best-case scenario: Nurkic goes hog wild on Draymond Green as Damian Lillard has another prolific series, and Portland pushes Golden State, trying to get Kevin Durant back to full strength, and the Warriors struggle in a seven-game series. And in a Game 7, itâs a coin flip.
Worst-case scenario: Nurkic comes back down to Earth, the Blazersâ defensive carriage turns back into a rotting pumpkin and Portland fails to make the playoffs.
19. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons donât seem to like each other very much, but theyâve put together some decent play in the past few weeks. Their defense is legit, but the offense remains very limited. Their big problem is that their starters are really bad, in terms of outscoring their opponent. Whatâs the formula for their success? Thatâs a tough nut to crack.
Best-case scenario: They slide up (or down) into a matchup with the Celtics, crush them on the glass and pull off a shocker upset in the first round out of nowhere.
Worst-case scenario: Their up-and-down play hits a lull at the wrong time and they canât scramble their way into a playoff spot. Big changes face the Pistons in the offseason.
THE SURGERS
18. Dallas Mavericks
Out of nowhere, the Mavericks have pieced together a good team. Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell, Nerlens Noel, they just keep finding guys to deliver. Theyâve been great since the trade for Noel, and their defense is better than advertised. It turns out there was a good team hidden in here all the time, they just had to unlock the puzzle.
Best-case scenario: Dallas surges into the No. 8 spot, faces the Spurs one more time, and Nowitzki and Harrison Barnes have big series as kind of a bridge between the past and the future in a tough six-game series.
Worst-case scenario: The Mavericks canât sustain their momentum and miss the playoffs, leading to questions about whether this is a core worth committing to.
17. Who has the best defense since the All-Star break? The Wolves. Thatâs right. Look, theyâve been bad. But thereâs more talent on this team than the rest of the contenders for eighth in the West, and with that kind of athleticism, they could make a push. Theyâre barely hanging on, but if they make it, they can attack both No. 1 seed contenders more than their competition.
Best-case scenario: The Wolves surge past a brutal March schedule and find a way into the eighth seed, then shock Golden State by taking Games 1 and 4, completely rewriting the narrative about their season.
Worst-case scenario: The schedule does what it should and buries them. Minnesota goes back to the drawing board with more questions than answers.
16. Milwaukee Bucks
I know, this is crazy. Theyâre currently in 10th place in the East. Theyâre without Jabari Parker. But the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo, and thatâs a better player than almost any team in this junk bracket has. Their defense has been all over the map, but if they wind up in an opportune spot with momentum, theyâre more dangerous than the others. They are only four games back in the loss column from the fifth seed, for crying out loud.
Best-case scenario: They surge into the sixth seed and catch Boston, Toronto or Washington by surprise, as the Greek Freak puts on a spectacular performance that cements him as one of the real superstars in this league.
Worst-case scenario: They just muddle through the rest of the season and come up short, firmly entrenched as nothing more than a mediocre team stuck in the messy middle.
15. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are as inconsistent as all get out, but theyâve had stretches where theyâve looked downright good. Theyâre also great at home, which could help in a series. The trick is finding matchups that favor them. If they could steal the fifth seed, they might be able to make a ruckus, which would certainly help with calming the Paul George waters.
Best-case scenario: Indiana has a similar performance against Toronto in a 4-5 or 3-6 matchup as last year, only this time with an injured Kyle Lowry the Pacers are able to take the Raptors down behind a prolific George performance, which changes the whole image and chemistry of the team.
Worst-case scenario: They suffer a deep funk to end the season, either falling out of the playoffs or into eighth, where Cleveland runs over them.
14. Chicago Bulls
This was a lot easier to defend before the Taj Gibson trade, but look. The Bulls lose to bad teams and beat good teams. They have Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, who both know how to deliver in the playoffs. If they get a surprise performance from any of their young guys, they can be a pain. Their ceiling is higher than Indianaâs, but their floor is also lower.
Best-case scenario: Butler goes supernova in a first-round series and shocks a team as Bobby Portis (or whoever) comes out of nowhere to make a name for himself. Wade hits a winner in Game 3 at United Center.
Worst-case scenario: They slump to the finish, miss the playoffs, or worse, get beat by LeBron James for the zillionth time, and the whole thing gets blown to pieces in the offseason.
NOT ENOUGH FIREPOWER, BUT ADMIRABLE
13. Miami Heat
Look, I didnât think they were legit, but they are. The Heat have defense, three big-time playmakers, guys contributing all over and great coaching. They have been one of the best teams in the East over the past two months. I donât see where any of this is really going, but itâs working.
Best-case scenario: They surge to a No. 7 seed and catch Boston or Washington off guard. Hassan Whiteside goes berserk and Dion Waiters hits two winners, scaring fans of the opposing team for life, before falling in the second round.
Worst-case scenario: They plummet back to Earth like a failed satellite and miss the playoffs, wasting what could have been excellent draft positioning for nothing.
12. Atlanta Hawks
There are good things about this team, but itâs unclear if itâs a good team. Can Dennis Schröder step up like the guy the Hawks positioned him to be? Does Dwight Howard have one more strong series in him? And whatâs the point in any of this if we all know they canât beat the Cavs no matter what?
Best-case scenario: Boston steals the No. 1 seed, Atlanta plays better defense and out-executes Toronto or Washington in a 4-5 matchup and Atlanta gets a favorable series vs. Boston where it hangs on to the end.
Worst-case scenario: Toronto dismisses them in the first-round, or maybe worse, they win, and then have to deal with getting swept by the Cavs for a third straight year, this time with Kyle Korver bombing 3s on them.
11. Man, the West is unfair. The Thunder would be a fourth or fifth seed in the East and primed for a run. But no. The Thunderâs defense is legit, and they have Russell Westbrook. Remember that this team looked way better, not just with their stars, but the whole roster, in last seasonâs playoffs. They could be more dangerous than this. But, man, their offense just doesnât have the firepower to sustain.
Best-case scenario: The Thunder wind up in a four-way tie with the Grizzlies, Jazz and Clippers and their division win puts them in the No. 4 spot, where home court and Westbrook push them past the Clippers. They avoid the Warriors, with the Spurs getting the No. 1 seed, and have a nice, admirable five-game loss to the Spurs.
Worst-case scenario: They wind up in seventh, Golden State gets the second seed and Kevin Durant humiliates them in four games. Insult to injury.
10. They are struggling right now and look like the same team theyâve always been: a tough out, but an out nonetheless. Their offense has shown signs of life, but their defense is the worst in the league since the All-Star break. However, this team still has talent, and the formula is much better suited to the playoffs than the regular season. You still donât want to deal with them in a first-round series.
Best-case scenario: They shock the Rockets, who canât find their 3-point shot. The Grizzlies give the Warriors all they can handle for the second time in three years, as Tony Allen makes Durantâs life miserable again, and Memphis takes Golden State to seven games.
Worst-case scenario: They stay in seventh, and the Spurs obliterate them with precision. Everything feels meaningless for this team.
THE NEAR-THE-TOPS
9. The Kyle Lowry injury is tough here, but you also have to remember last seasonâs playoff run. Yes, they made the conference finals. But they looked bad from the start, and it took 14 games to get to the Eastern Conference finals, where they never really challenged the Cavs. They have to prove it to me.
Best-case scenario: The deadline additions improve the defense, Lowry gets healthy, they sneak into the third seed, take care of business in the first round, bust the Celtics in the second and give the Cavs a real challenge in a 7-game loss this time.
Worse-case scenario: Lowry doesnât get healthy and Toronto gets knocked out in the first round for the third time in four years.
8. Utah Jazz
Higher floor, lower ceiling. This team is good. Itâs really good. It relies on defense, which helps. The Jazz are not reliant on one guy. They have rim protection and versatility. But are they really ready to make that jump? Whoâs going to take over in a playoff series if you need a big quarter? Can they get buckets when they need to, when the pressure mounts? Does experience matter?
Best-case scenario: They outclass the Clippers in the first round and go toe to toe with Golden State, winning Games 2, 4 and 6 before falling in a Game 7 at Oracle.
Worst-case scenario: They wind up in a tie, lose tiebreaker, slip to the sixth seed and get tossed by the Clippers or Thunder in the first round as they look like just a good regular-season team.
7. The Celtics are the second-best team in the East with wins over the Warriors and Cavs in the past week, and Iâm still not buying. Theyâre going to have to show that their formula is made for the playoffs. Al Horford talked about the problems with how the Celtics were configured in the past, and this core has still yet to win a playoff series. Letâs see it before we buy in, especially behind a 5-foot-9 superstar in a physical environment.
Best-case scenario: They handle business in a 2-7 matchup versus whoever, Thomas goes nuts in the second round, solidifying him as a true superstar, and the Celtics go toe to toe with the Cavs in a seven-game series. They show they are one superstar away, with the No. 1 lottery spot and assets to still make that fateful deal.
Worst-case scenario: Indiana or Chicago gives them a nightmare as it turns out this team canât really hang in a playoff series. Theyâre proven to be a great regular-season team with a hard playoff ceiling.
6. Iâm gonna keep buying them until theyâre done. They have Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick, and the bench has been better this season. For all the talk about their playoff failures, theyâve beaten the Grizzlies, Warriors and Spurs in the playoffs with this team. They might never put it together, but Iâm not going to stop believing they can.
Best-case scenario: Everything falls into place. They outclass the Jazz in Round 1, topple the Spurs in Round 2 and somehow, out of nowhere, beat the Warriors State in the Western Conference finals to advance to the NBA Finals, finishing the idea you canât win with Chris Paul.
Worst-case scenario: They get ousted in the first round and the team has to accept that this just doesnât work. Or worse, they bring back everyone anyway, just prolonging the âmehâ-ness.
5. Iâm buying. The Wizards have big guards who can match up with anyone in the East. They have scoring punch with Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Bojan Bogdanovic. They have a superstar two-way player in John Wall. They have great defensive big men in Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi. Depth matters less in the playoffs. And, unlike Boston, theyâve actually won playoff series with this core. The Wizards are the best threat to the Cavs in the East.
Best-case scenario: A dominant first-round sweep gives them the edge along with home court they steal late in the regular season in toppling Boston. After stealing Game 1 against the Cavaliers, they win two at home to go up 3-1. They become the fourth team in three years to give up a 3-1 lead after LeBron goes supernova, because Wizards fans canât have nice things.
Worst-case scenario: Beal gets injured, and a fall to the fourth seed creates a grueling seven-game series against Atlanta, followed by the Cavs downing them in a sweep.
THE CONTENDERS
4. Call me a hater. I have doubts about the Spurs. Yes, their defense is the best in the land. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is a killer robot sent to destroy mankind. Yes, Gregg Popovich. Yes, Spurs, Spurs, Spurs. But their defensive numbers are boosted by their bench units, which are unproven in playoff environments. They have two key players in Pau Gasol and Tony Parker who cannot be played together in a series defensively under any circumstances. Weâve still not seen Leonard take over and win a playoff series mostly on his own. There are some defensive concerns with LaMarcus Aldridge that werenât there last season. Their role players are guys who excel because theyâre Spurs, but how does that look in a series? And theyâre still built for 2-pointers. What if the Rockets get hot? What if the Warriors are at full strength?
If the Spurs win the West, no one would be shocked. But you also shouldnât be surprised if they wind up on the short end, just like last yearâs second-round exit.
Best-case scenario: Leonard proves heâs the leagueâs Most Valuable Player, San Antonio gets home court, breezes through two rounds and then eliminates Golden State at home in Game 7 as Kawhi shuts down K.D. The Spurs go to 3-1 against LeBron James in the Finals and Popovich earns his sixth ring.
Worst-case scenario: Theyâre revealed as a regular-season team by the Thunder or Clippers in the second round, prompting more questions about whether they can win a title without Tim Duncan.
3. The best version of the Rockets is a tough, tough team to beat. They defend better than advertised, outpace you with 3-pointers and James Harden infuriates you. They have a lot of answers for whatever you throw at them; this is no one-trick pony. Mike DâAntoni teams couldnât win in the playoffs in the mid-00âs. But the game is different now, and these Rockets are different, too.
Best-case scenario: They stun the world by outscoring Golden State from 3-point territory in a record-breaking performance in the second round, and DâAntoni finally topples the Spurs with a brilliant performance from Harden. They lose to the Cavs in six tough games, but itâs still an incredible season.
Worst-case scenario: The Rockets go cold in a 3-6 matchup with the Grizzlies or Thunder and suffer a major letdown after a brilliant season, as everyone says the same thing they always say: âMike DâAntoni canât win in the playoffs.â
2. Durant. Thatâs why theyâre not No. 1. We just donât know. We donât know when K.D. will be back, what heâll be back as, how long it will take him to recover, what impact thatâs going to have. We donât know. Until we know more about Durant, you just canât give them the top spot. The Warriors are the best team in the league when healthy. Theyâre not healthy. Until they are, theyâre not the best. Especially given how theyâve struggled without Durant the past week-plus.
Best-case scenario: Durant gets healthy, everything clicks, the Warriors cruise to a dominant and ultimately kind of a letdown NBA championship, validating Curry and Durant as all-time greats and getting revenge for the 3-1 collapse.
Worst-case scenario: Durant isnât back until the second round and isnât himself. They have to struggle in the first round, wearing them out, and the Rockets, Clippers or Grizzlies catch them flat-footed in the second round for a humiliating postseason exit. If they were up 3-1 and then lost, that would actually be the worst-case scenario.
1. Kevin Love still isnât back. Their defense is the second-worst since the All-Star break, and hasnât been good all season. They lost Andrew Bogut. LeBron James has had to play heavy minutes, and most of their rotation is very old. But two years in a row the Cavs looked vulnerable in the regular season, and then absolutely tore the hinges off the playoffs. They have a switch, and they know how to flip it.
In the end, itâs this simple: With Durant less than 100 percent, the Cavaliers are the champs and deserve to hold their spot. Plus, they have a way easier path to the Finals than Golden State.
Best-case scenario: LeBron James once again proves that he is an all-time great, capturing his fourth title, sending Kevin Durant back to that No. 2 spot, and bringing a second title to Cleveland.
Worst-case scenario: The Wizards bite them unexpectedly and Cleveland has to face facts that maybe last year was a one-time special occurrence and this team isnât actually that great.
