Every NBA team's 2017-18 projected win total
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2017-18 win total projections for every NBA team
Needless to say, it's been a crazy NBA offseason. Marquee players like Paul George, Chris Paul and Gordon Hayward have all changed uniforms, making the upcoming season as unpredictable as any in recent memory.
Luckily, SportsLine is here to help. Data scientist Stephen Oh has crunched the numbers and projected the number of wins for every NBA team for the 2017-18 season. So before you bet on the win total over/unders from Vegas (we've included those as well), use SportsLine's projections as a reference. And, for more, check out Vegas expert Josh Nagel's take on the big winners and losers.
Here we go.
*Projections accurate as of July 5, 2017
Credit: CBS Sports Graphic -
Atlanta Hawks
Our SportsLine projection: 28.2 wins
Vegas line: 34.5 wins
Outlook: Bleak. This looks like the year the Hawks' streak of 10 straight playoff appearances will come to an end. Atlanta traded Dwight Howard, didn't even attempt to re-sign Paul Millsap. Millsap's absence will cost the Hawks 4.5 wins according to our SportsLine model. The Hawks are left hoping that Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince can help at least maintain respectability while they rebuild ... we'll see how it goes.
Credit: USATSI -
Boston Celtics
Our SportsLine projection: 54.0 wins
Vegas line: N/A
Outlook: Vegas needs to regroup after Gordon Hayward decided to spurn the Jazz and sign with the Celtics, so they haven't put out a line yet. According to SportsLine, however, Hayward adds nearly two full wins to Boston's win projection, giving the C's the fourth highest projected win total in the NBA.
Click here for our complete SportsLine Celtics projection and breakdown
Credit: USATSI -
Brooklyn Nets
Our SportsLine projection: 14.2 wins
Vegas line: 21.5 wins
Outlook: Hey, at least they're not in New Jersey anymore! Vegas says the Nets are going to be bad, and SportsLine says they'll be even worse. The addition of D'Angelo Russell could help, but wins will be scarce no matter what.
Credit: USATSI -
Charlotte Hornets
Our SportsLine projection: 42.4 wins
Vegas line: 40.5 wins
Outlook: The Hornets underachieved last season and should see a return to the mean with All-Star point guard Kemba Walker leading the way. Charlotte also traded for Dwight Howard, who added 3.6 wins to SportsLine's projected total for 2017-18.
Credit: USATSI -
Chicago Bulls
Our SportsLine projection: 36.8 wins
Vegas line: 29.5 wins
Outlook: The Bulls traded Jimmy Butler for three relatively unproven young players, dropping their expected win total by six. The SportsLine projection is based on Dwyane Wade still being on the team, but the Vegas line probably anticipates him being traded or bought out. If that's the case, the projection will likely drop significantly. Stay tuned, Bulls fans!
Credit: USATSI -
Cleveland Cavaliers
Our SportsLine projection: 54.2 wins
Vegas line: 56.5 wins
Outlook: The Cavs proved last year that they're willing to sacrifice the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference to be healthy for the playoffs, so SportsLine anticipates a good, not great regular season. Cleveland has been unable to pick up any impact players as of yet this offseason (no offense, Jose Calderon), but they're still expected to win three more games than last season.
Click here for our complete Cavaliers SportsLine projection and outlook
Credit: USATSI -
Dallas Mavericks
Our SportsLine projection: 38.6 wins
Vegas line: 34.5 wins
Outlook: In what could be a victory lap for Dirk Nowitzki (he's suggested he might retire after this season), the Mavs are stuck between rebuilding and competing. SportsLine projects Dallas to win about five more games than last season, in part due to the addition of dynamic rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr.
Credit: USATSI -
Denver Nuggets
Our SportsLine projection: 44.8 wins
Vegas line: 42.5 wins
Outlook: Denver's young core of Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray got a huge boost with the signing of Paul Millsap, who added 2.2 wins to the Nuggets' projection for 2017-18. The team lost Danilo Gallinari, but Millsap is probably a better fit next to Jokic, which means Denver is a serious threat for a playoff spot.
Credit: USATSI -
Detroit Pistons
Our SportsLine projection: 41.4 wins
Vegas line: 40.5 wins
Outlook: The Pistons are crippled in the free agent market this offseason by guaranteed contracts, but they made a huge improvement by trading Marcus Morris to the Celtics for Avery Bradley. According to SportsLine, Bradley added 4.6 wins to Detroit, which is now projected to go over the Vegas line for wins.
Credit: USATSI -
Golden State Warriors
Our SportsLine projection: 65.9 wins
Vegas line: 67.5 wins
Outlook: What can you say? The Warriors are bringing everyone back from a team that barely hit a speed bump all of last season, including the playoffs. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are pretty much worth 60 wins on their own, so SportsLine's win projection is pretty much in line with where the Warriors finished last year.
Click here for our complete SportsLine Warriors projection and outlook
Credit: USATSI -
Houston Rockets
Our SportsLine projection: 55.2 wins
Vegas line: 55.5 wins
Outlook: SportsLine expected a regression to 45.9 wins from the Rockets next season ... but then they traded for Chris Paul. Combining with James Harden to form arguably the best backcourt in the league, Paul bumped up the SportsLine projection nearly 10 wins. That being said, they're still projected to finish with the same amount of wins as last season.
Credit: USATSI -
Indiana Pacers
Our SportsLine projection: 34.1 wins
Vegas line: 30.5 wins
Outlook: The Pacers have traded Paul George and will begin to re-tool with third-year center Myles Turner as the main building block. As you might expect, Indiana is expected to drop considerably from last year's 42 wins, but SportsLine's projection is actually quite a few games higher than the Vegas line. Maybe Darren Collison is better than we thought?
Credit: USATSI -
Los Angeles Clippers
Our SportsLine projection: 34.3 wins
Vegas line: 34.5 wins
Outlook: The Clippers traded Chris Paul and announced that this is now Blake Griffin's team by giving him a massive five-year contract. Since some think Griffin won't return until December due to a toe injury, Paul's loss hurts even more. Vegas is down on the Clippers' playoff chances, but SportsLine projects them right in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference at around 41 wins thanks to the addition of Danilo Gallinari, who gave the Clips a 1.6-win bump.
Credit: USATSI -
Los Angeles Lakers
Our SportsLine projection: 36.2 wins
Vegas line: 36.5 wins
Outlook: The Lakers finished last year hot and drafted the point guard of their future, Lonzo Ball, with the No. 2 overall pick. Trading D'Angelo Russell for Brook Lopez was a positive for the Lakers -- the move added 5.4 wins to their SportsLine win projection. Although still not in playoff contention, the Lakers are projected to improve by 10 wins from last season.
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Credit: USATSI -
Memphis Grizzlies
Our SportsLine projection: 39.9 wins
Vegas line: 42.5 wins
Outlook: The Grizzlies haven't won less than 40 games since the 2008-09 season, but our SportsLine projection has them dangerously close to that mark. The departure of Zach Randolph to the Kings may signal the end of the "Grit N Grind" era in Memphis, but Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are two All-Stars who should keep the Grizzlies in the playoff hunt.
Credit: USATSI -
Miami Heat
Our SportsLine projection: 37.3 wins
Vegas line: 40.5 wins
Outlook: The Heat caught lightning in a bottle in the second half of last season, putting together a miraculous run to nearly make the playoffs after an 11-30 start. Missing out on Gordon Hayward in free agency hurt the Heat big time, as the All-Star forward would have added 5.7 wins to Miami's projection. As it stands, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Co. are expected to regress to around 37 wins.
Credit: USATSI -
Milwaukee Bucks
Our SportsLine projection: 42.1 wins
Vegas line: 42.5 wins
Outlook: Giannis Antetokounmpo and the young Bucks are clearly on the rise, but both the SportsLine projection and the Vegas line have Milwaukee winning pretty much exactly the same amount of games as last year -- 42. The Greek Freak is capable of taking another huge leap forward this season, but it's more likely that he'll steadily improve and the Bucks will fall into the sixth or seventh seed in the East.
Credit: USATSI -
Minnesota Timberwolves
Our SportsLine projection: 47.7 wins
Vegas line: 46.5 wins
Outlook: According to SportsLine, Minnesota had one of the most productive offseasons in the NBA. Adding Jimmy Butler, swapping Ricky Rubio for Jeff Teague and adding Taj Gibson increased the Wolves' projection by nearly eight wins. A lineup featuring Butler, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns is sure to do some serious damage.
Credit: USATSI -
New Orleans Pelicans
Our SportsLine projection: 39.1 wins
Vegas line: 43.5 wins
Outlook: Can the twin tower lineup of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins work in New Orleans? SportsLine says no way. The Pelicans brought back Jrue Holiday, but that won't be enough to get themselves into the playoffs, as the projection falls well under the Vegas line of 43.5.
Credit: USATSI -
New York Knicks
Our SportsLine projection: 36.3 wins
Vegas line: 34.5 wins
Outlook: Sigh. Well, at least they "parted ways" with Phil Jackson. The Knicks have a long way toward relevancy, and it all starts with Kristaps Porzingis. If the Knicks end up trading or buying out Carmelo Anthony, the win projection is sure to fall, but that may be the best thing for the franchise right now.
Credit: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports -
Oklahoma City Thunder
Our SportsLine projection: 48.4 wins
Vegas line: 46.5 wins
Outlook: What happens when you give MVP Russell Westbrook a new All-Star teammate? The win projection goes up by nearly seven wins. Paul George will give OKC a whole new dimension, and the addition of Patrick Patterson fills a hole for a team that can now make some serious noise come playoff time.
Credit: USATSI -
Orlando Magic
Our SportsLine projection: 27.9 wins
Vegas line: 40.5 wins
Outlook: This is a pretty huge discrepancy between the SportsLine projection and the Vegas line. The Magic drafted well with Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon may continue to develop, but they're not going to add 11 wins to a team with largely the same roster as last season. On this one your best bet is to stick with SportsLine and bet the under.
Credit: USATSI -
Philadelphia 76ers
Our SportsLine projection: 41.9 wins
Vegas line: 40.5 wins
Outlook: Trust. The. Freaking. Process. Both SportsLine and Vegas project that this is the year the Sixers actually start trying to win. Armed with No. 1 picks Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons, along with potential franchise center Joel Embiid and newly added sharpshooter J.J. Redick, Philly has an 80.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. Believe it.
Credit: USATSI -
Phoenix Suns
Our SportsLine projection: 22.8 wins
Vegas line: 25.5 wins
Outlook: There's no sugar coating it -- the Suns are going to lose a lot of games. But they're probably OK with that, as they continue to try to develop young players like Devin Booker, who dropped 70 in a game last year. What they'll lack in victories, they'll make up for in youthful exuberance.
Credit: USATSI -
Portland Trail Blazers
Our SportsLine projection: 44.1 wins
Vegas line: 38.5 wins
Outlook: The Blazers took a step back last season, and SportsLine thinks they're coming back strong. Led by the prolific backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, the Blazers look to improve on the 41 games they won last season and get back to the second round of the playoffs.
Credit: USATSI -
Sacramento Kings
Our SportsLine projection: 34.7 wins
Vegas line: 31.5 wins
Outlook: The Kings had a great offseason, adding dynamic rookie De'Aaron Fox and proven vets George Hill and Zach Randolph, but it won't necessarily add up to a lot of wins. SportsLine projects Sacramento do go over the Vegas line, but they're still nowhere near playoff contention.
Credit: USATSI -
San Antonio Spurs
Our SportsLine projection: 52.4 wins
Vegas line: 55.5 wins
Outlook: SportsLine projects Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs to have a massive drop-off from their 61-win season in 2016-17. It's never a good idea to count out Gregg Popovich, but we'll have to see if the Spurs can keep their mojo from last year going.
Credit: USATSI -
Toronto Raptors
Our SportsLine projection: 49.3 wins
Vegas line: 47.5 wins
Outlook: After re-signing Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the Raptors are bringing back the exact same core they had to end last season. The loss of Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker hurts, but if DeMar DeRozan can keep up his All-Star level play, the Raptors should be good enough to approach last season's 51 win total.
Credit: USATSI -
Utah Jazz
Our SportsLine projection: 38.3 wins
Vegas line: N/A
Outlook: Utah's win projection was hit by a sledgehammer when Gordon Hayward decided to sign with the Celtics. According to SportsLine, the Jazz dropped seven games by losing Hayward, and they now have just a 21 percent chance to make the playoffs after earning the No. 5 seed last season.
Credit: USATSI -
Washington Wizards
Our SportsLine projection: 45.8 wins
Vegas line: 45.5 wins
Outlook: The SportsLine computer is right in line with the Vegas line in picking the Wizards to have a slight drop-off from last season's 49-win total. Assuming they match Otto Porter's offers sheet, the Wizards have basically the same team coming back to try to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals after falling just short last season.
Credit: USATSI
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