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NBA player prop bets: One best bet for every team

  • By Jack Maloney
  • @jackmaloneycbs
  • Jan 1, 1970
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  • NBA player prop bets

    A new NBA season has finally arrived, and it should be another fun one. But before all the games get started, we still have some time to put down some preseason bets. There are win totals and major awards to bet on, of course, but some of the most fun bets come in the player prop section. 

    So, ahead of opening night, here is one best player prop bet from each team. There are bets on points per game averages, triple-doubles and even 3-point percentages. Find a few you like, and lets cash some tickets, folks. 

    Credit: USATSI
  • Atlanta Hawks

    John Collins' rebounds per game: over/under 8

    When looking into the options for the Hawks, I was initially drawn to Trae Young, for obvious reasons. But the fact that he's a rookie and prone to serious bouts of inefficiency made me a bit nervous. Plus, I believe I've found some solid value elsewhere on the roster. Enter John Collins. The second-year big man is an athletic marvel, and most casual fans probably know him because of his penchant for highlight reel dunks and blocks. But he's also a strong rebounder. Last season, he pulled down 7.3 boards per game, despite playing just 24 minutes a night, and had the 20th best rebounding rate in the entire league as a rookie. Additionally, when he played 27 or more minutes, Collins averaged 8.8 boards, and had double digit rebounding numbers in seven of those 17 games. Assuming even just a slight increase in playing time into the 27-30 minute range, and taking into account this will now be his second season in the league, Collins should have little trouble taking down eight rebounds a night.

    Bet: Over 8 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Boston Celtics

    Gordon Hayward points per game: over/under 18.5

    The Celtics are a tricky team when it comes to player prop bets. Not only do they have a plethora of talented players, but they'll also be reintroducing Gordon Hayward to the lineup, and it's not clear yet how he'll affect other players' numbers. So instead, let's focus on Hayward himself. The over/under for his points per game is set at 18.5, and that looks a bit too high to me. Not only does he have to try and fit in with a group that worked quite well together last season, but he has to do it while trying to return from a horrific injury. Even if Hayward does eventually get back to his All-Star level form, it's going to take him some time, which is good for us in terms of fading his scoring this season. Additionally, the Celtics had seven different players average double figures in scoring last season, but only Kyrie Irving scored more than 14.5 points per game. It seems likely that a similar pattern will follow this season. Plus, Brad Stevens noted that Hayward will be on a minutes restriction early on, which will also lower his scoring average.

    Bet: Under 18.5 (-130)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Brooklyn Nets

    Jarrett Allen points per game: over/under 10

    All aboard the Jarrett Allen hype train! Last season's rookie class was so good, and Allen played for the Nets, so he flew under the radar a bit, but don't expect that to be the case this season. Allen has looked fantastic at times in the preseason, and even appears to have added a little 3-point shot to his game. Which only confirms that we'll be hammering the over here on Allen's points per game -- currently set at just 10. Allen averaged 8.2 ppg as a rookie last season, while playing just 20 minutes per game. Making a slight jump to over 10 points per game is really just one extra basket a night for Allen. That should be little trouble considering he not only has a year of experience under his belt, but should play way more minutes. In the preseason he averaged 13.7 points on 26 minutes a night. Now that is preseason, but then consider this: when he got 26 minutes a night last season, he averaged just over 12 points. Getting to 10 this season should be easy.

    Bet: Over 10 (-160)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Charlotte Hornets

    Tony Parker points per game: over/under 8.5

    Tony Parker being on the Charlotte Hornets is still a pretty strange thing to think about. But when you do, you realize that it might be a pretty good way to make some money. Parker's points per game over/under is currently set at 8.5, and we're going to get down on the under. Age and injuries are catching up with Parker, who is now 36 years old, and has suffered a significant drop-off in production the last few seasons. He scored a career-low 7.7 points per game last season, and that trend should continue in Charlotte. He wasn't brought in to score, he doesn't shoot 3s and he rarely gets to the line anymore. While you don't want to take too much from preseason, Parker scored just 10 points in four games. He'll still probably have a few moments here and there, but the old Tony Parker is gone, and he isn't coming back in Charlotte.  

    Bet: Under 8.5 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Chicago Bulls

    Zach LaVine points per game: over/under 17

    The Bulls are going to be very bad this season, and if there was a way to bet on a team having the worst defense in the league, the Bulls would be worth putting money on. Those kind of bets don't exist though, so we're going to ride with Zach LaVine being able to put the ball in the basket. Even on bad teams, someone has to score, and LaVine should have plenty of chances to do just that -- especially early in the season when Lauri Markkanen is out injured. LaVine will have the ball in his hands all the time, and has never been shy about getting shots up. Even in his return late last season from a torn ACL, LaVine was scoring just under 17 points per game. And that was while he was still trying to get his rhythm back. Now fully healthy, and confident in his game, LaVine should have no trouble clearing 17 points a night.

    Bet: Over 17 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Cleveland Cavaliers

    Kevin Love points per game: over/under 20

    OK, I have to be honest, once I saw this bet out there, I didn't even look at anything else for the Cavs. Kevin Love becoming a 20-point-per-game scorer again seems like the one thing we can count on from what should be a strange season in Cleveland. The Cavs are going to be pretty bad -- or at least much worse than they were last season. But even bad teams need someone to score, and without LeBron James in town, Love is the team's best option in that regard. He put up nearly 18 points per game on just 12 shots and 28 minutes per night last season, and with LeBron and his 19 shots per game gone to Los Angeles, Love should play more, shoot more and score more this campaign. Sure, he might not get the same sort of looks without LeBron to draw the defense, but Love was putting up 26 points a night just less than five years ago on bad Timberwolves teams. He might not reach those kind of numbers this season, but 20 points a night seems more than doable.

    Bet: Over 20 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Dallas Mavericks

    Luka Doncic to win Rookie of the Year

    We're going to move away from stats-based bets for the Mavericks, but not because there aren't some good ones out there. I would have no problem, for example, taking under 12 points per game for Dirk Nowitzki. However, the point of betting is to try and make money and right now we can get nice odds on Luka Doncic to win Rookie of the Year, which he has a strong chance of doing. The Slovenian wunderkind is currently +333 to win the honor, which means if you bet $100, you would win $333. That, of course, would be a pretty good payday if he wins the award, which I happen to think he will. I was in on Doncic taking home ROY on the night of the draft, to be honest, and him showing out in preseason -- he averaged 15 points, five rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game -- only confirmed my pick.

    Bet: Luka Doncic to win ROY (+333)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Denver Nuggets

    Nikola Jokic assists per game: over/under 5.5

    The Nuggets were one of the toughest teams to try and nail down one bet that I was confident in. The way they spread their offensive production out, combined with the numbers that were out there left me a bit perplexed. Eventually, I focused in on Nikola Jokic's assists per game. His over/under is set at 5.5 per game, and I think he has a good chance at going over. Jokic is in a rare position in the league. Not only does he serve as the hub of his team's offense as a center, but he also led his team in assists. Last season that resulted in him finishing with 6.1 assists per game, and nothing figures to be much different this season. Things will run through Jokic, and not only is he one of the best (and most creative) passers in the league, the Nuggets have plenty of scorers to make shots after the big Serbian sets them up. Jokic finishing with right around six assists per game again seems a good bet.

    Bet: Over 5.5 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Detroit Pistons

    Blake Griffin points per game: over/under 21

    The Pistons are going to be one of the more fascinating teams to watch this season. They went all-in on Blake Griffin, acquiring him out of nowhere last season. How he plays will have a big impact on whether they can get back to the playoffs after missing out the past two seasons. And well, I think he's going to play well. Or at least he's going to score points. His over/under for points per game is set at 21, and he hasn't been under that number since 2013, and I don't see that changing this season. The thing with Griffin is he gets to the line so often, and takes so many shots in general that he doesn't even have to be that efficient to get to 21 points a night. Especially with how many 3s he started taking last season. He'll have no problem getting those looks with the Pistons, as he should be their main offensive option.

    Bet: Over 21 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Golden State

    Stephen Curry 3-point percentage: over/under 42 percent

    Due to their vast array of talent, as well as their penchant for not always taking the regular season super seriously, it was tough to find a player prop bet for the Warriors that I was super confident in. But eventually, I decided to take the over on Stephen Curry's 3-point percentage, which is set at 42 percent. The best shooter in the league, Curry has shot below 42 percent from downtown just once in his career, and for his career, he's at 43.6 percent. With nothing else looking too enticing, it made sense to just trust Curry's shooting. That's worked out well for the Warriors through the years, and hopefully it will work out for us as well.

    Bet: Over 42 percent (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Houston Rockets

    James Harden assists: over/under 8.5

    The Houston Rockets had a fascinating offseason, and their moves played into the bet I chose. For the Rockets, I decided to fade James Harden's assist numbers. While he's proven to be an elite playmaker over the past few seasons, I think their offseason will have a negative effect on his assists. Harden's over/under for assists per game is currently set at 8.5, a number Harden has surpassed in each of the past two seasons. However, he saw a big drop-off last season with Chris Paul's arrival, going from 11.2 assists per game in 2016-17, to 8.8 last season. Paul re-signed, of course, and that will once again cut into Harden's chances for assists. But so too will the Rockets' other offseason moves, which included losing Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, all of whom shot at least 36 percent from downtown. And they didn't exactly replace them with strong shooters. Harden got nearly two assists a night by passing to that trio for 3-pointers, and nearly three assists per game in total. Other players will replace some of that production, but I don't think quite enough for Harden to reach 8.5 assists per game.

    Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Indiana Pacers

    Domantas Sabonis points per game: over/under 11.5

    I'm all in on Domantas Sabonis, who I think is a really nice player. So I'm going to jump on the over here for his points per game, which is currently set at just 11.5. Sabonis put up 11.6 points per game last season -- his first with the Pacers -- and I don't see him taking a step back in his third season. Even if Indiana does have a slightly crowded frontcourt with the addition of Kyle O'Quinn, Sabonis is just too good, and works too hard, that he shouldn't have to worry about getting crowded out of minutes. With another season of experience under his belt, and assuming he gets the same level of playing time (possibly even more), Sabonis should clear 11.5 points per game without too much trouble.

    Bet: Over 11.5 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Los Angeles Clippers

    Tobias Harris points per game: over/under 17

    Tobias Harris is really good. He's played for the Bucks, the Magic and the Pistons for most of his career, and has been to the playoffs just once, so he probably doesn't get the recognition he should from casual fans. But that could change this season now that he's preparing for his first full campaign with the Clippers. Between the Pistons and Clippers last season, Harris put up 18.6 points per game while shooting over 41 percent from downtown, and he did so on just 15 shots per game. As the main offensive option on this Clippers team, Harris should have plenty of opportunities to put up similar numbers this season. Which is why we're going to take the over on Harris' points per game number -- currently set at 17. Even allowing for the potential of a slight decrease in production, Harris would have to score nearly two points less per game for us to not cash this bet. I don't see that happening.

    Bet: Over 17 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Los Angeles Lakers

    LeBron James triple-doubles: over/under 16.5

    This was another case where I took one look at a line and didn't even bother searching out other options. There was no way I was passing up taking the under on LeBron James' triple-doubles, which is currently set at 16.5. Last season was the only season LeBron has really ever come close to getting 17 triple-doubles, and he only just barely got there with 18. And that was with him playing nearly 37 minutes a night, and doing just about everything for the Cavaliers. I don't think he plays that much for the Lakers this season, nor do I think he'll have the ball in his hands quite as much with Rajon Rondo and Lonzo Ball on the roster. I have no doubt that LeBron will have another strong season, but back-to-back seasons with 17 triple-doubles just seems unlikely.

    Bet: Under 16.5 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Memphis Grizzlies

    Chandler Parsons games played over/under: 52.5

    Chandler Parsons' first two seasons in Memphis were pretty much the worst case scenario. He suffered numerous injuries, only played 70 combined games and didn't produce when he was on the floor. So it might come as a surprise to see that I'm actually going to take the over on his number of games played this season, which is set at 52.5. Yes, history is not with us on this one, but this is the first time in a few years that Parsons didn't spend the offseason recovering from a knee surgery, and he was able to fully participate in training camp. Plus, during the summer he went over to Germany to get PRP injections in his knees -- the same procedure that helped extend Kobe Bryant's career. Now, I'm not sure what kind of player Parsons is going to be after all these injuries, which is why I wouldn't bet on any of his statistical based lines. However, I do think he'll be able to suit up in at least 53 games. Especially considering he's beginning the season healthy, which will get us off to a great start on this bet.

    Bet: Over 52.5 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Miami Heat

    Dwyane Wade points per game: over/under 11.5

    Like a few other teams, the Heat were tricky to make a decision on due to the fact that their production is spread out among so many different players. Plus, there's the possibility of a Jimmy Butler trade, which would really impact things. So in the end, I think the thing to do here is go back to old reliable: fade an old guy. Dwyane Wade is not going to be a part of a Butler trade, nor would a deal affect his role. Wade's points per game over/under is set at 11.5, and we're going to take the under. Wade had a huge drop-off last season, scoring just 11.4 points per game, his lowest total since his rookie season. He's more inefficient than he's ever been, still can't really shoot 3s, and doesn't get to the line much anymore. He'll have his nights, because he's not afraid to get shots up, but I can't see him consistently putting up nearly 12 points a night -- especially on a Heat team that will have plenty of other options.

    Bet: Under 11.5 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Milwaukee Bucks

    Giannis Antetokounmpo to win MVP

    I know, I know, you can't take too much from the preseason, but man did Giannis and the Bucks look amazing. And when you can get these kind of odds on an MVP favorite, you almost have to take them. The Greek Freak currently has the third-best odds to win MVP, and he's still as high as +500. Which, again, means if you bet $100 and it hits, you'd win $500. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished sixth in MVP voting last season, and that was under Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. Now, Giannis has another year of experience under his belt, and will play in a much friendlier offensive system under Mike Budenholzer. He's going to put up crazy numbers, he impacts the game on both ends of the floor and the Bucks' record should be much improved. Those are all the factors you need to get in the MVP conversation. I personally think Giannis will win MVP this season, but even if he isn't your first choice, it's still worth putting a few bucks on him at these odds.

    Bet: Giannis to win MVP (+500)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Minnesota Timberwolves

    Games Jimmy Butler will play for the Timberwolves this season: over/under 27.5

    The Timberwolves are a complete mess, and I have no idea how their season is going to go, nor how players will react to this situation. So instead of trying to take a shot at predicting how much Karl-Anthony Towns or Andrew Wiggins will score, I'll stick to a bet that just makes too much sense. We're going to take the under on how many games Jimmy Butler will play with the team this season. The over/under is currently set at 27.5, and to hit the over, Butler would have to still be on the team in the middle of December. Tom Thibodeau's stubbornness does make me slightly nervous, but it would be absurd for Butler to still be on the team at that point. Butler will probably end up playing at least a few games for the Wolves, considering the season starts in a few days, but I can't see him getting to almost 30. Do the smart thing Wolves; trade Butler. Not only because it's what's best for the team, but so we can cash some tickets.

    Bet: Under 27.5 (-140)

    Credit: USATSI
  • New Orleans Pelicans

    Elfrid Payton points per game: over/under 12.5

    When you woke up this morning, you probably didn't think you'd be getting advice to bet on Elfrid Payton's scoring numbers. And to be honest, I never thought I'd be writing about it. So hey, it's a new experience for all of us. New experiences are good though, especially when they can make you money. Which is why I think we should all get down on the under on Payton's points per game, which is set at 12.5. Payton has always been a fascinating player, but he's never been much of a scorer. Even on bad teams, his career high is 12.8 points per game with the Magic in 2016-17. Now on a playoff caliber Pelicans team, and coming off the bench behind Jrue Holiday, I don't see Payton getting back to that number. He can't shoot 3s and doesn't get to the line much, which means he has to make a lot of shots to get up to nearly 13 a night. With the options the Pelicans have on the offensive end, I simply don't think he'll even get the looks necessary to score that much.

    Bet: Under 12.5 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • New York Knicks

    Tim Hardaway Jr. points per game: over/under 16.5

    So… uh… how about the Knicks? It's going to be a strange season at MSG. The Knicks will be without their star big man Kristaps Porzingis, but still have some intriguing young players in Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox and also an odd assortment of competent but not great veterans. And that group is where we're going to try and make some money. With Porzingis not expected back for a while, they're going to need someone to put the ball in the basket. And who better than Tim Hardaway Jr.? The sixth-year swingman proved he could do it last season, putting up 17.5 points a night. That performance, along with Porzingis' injury, and the fact that Hardaway should get somewhere around 30 minutes and 15 shots a night, gives me enough confidence to pull the trigger on him averaging over 16.5 points per game. Even if he's slightly less inefficient than last season, he'd have to average a whole point less per game to not hit the over.

    Bet: Over 16.5 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Oklahoma City Thunder

    Russell Westbrook rebounds per game: over/under 10

    Russell Westbrook will absolutely average more than 10 points per game this season, and he'll likely get to 10 assists per game as well. So with his over/under for rebounds per game set at 10, it's basically asking if you think Westbrook will average a triple-double for the third straight season. And no, I do not. For one, that is just an absurd thought. Before Westbrook pulled off the feat in the 2016-17 season, no one had done it since Oscar Robertson in 1962. Westbrook doing it three seasons in a row is preposterous. And here's why. For starters, Westbrook is coming off knee surgery that may force him to miss the Thunder's first few games. Even if he's cleared for opening night, it's going to take him a bit to get back to peak Westbrook after missing training camp and preseason. Plus, Westbrook only got over 10 rebounds a game last season by pulling down 76 in the Thunder's final five games, which was a bit ridiculous. It will be close -- I don't think he drops down to seven rebounds a night or anything -- but I don't see him grabbing over 10 per game again.

    Bet: Under 10 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Orlando Magic

    Nikola Vucevic points per game: over/under 15.5

    You can't count on much when it comes to the Orlando Magic -- well, except for them losing a lot of games -- but you can count on Nikola Vucevic. The big man is pretty much a walking double-double, averaging at least 14.2 points and at least 8.9 rebounds in each of the past five seasons. You rarely hear about him, but damn if Vucevic isn't going to go out there and be productive every single night. That consistency is why we're going to take the over on his points per game, which is set at 15.5. He's easily cleared that mark in three of the past four seasons, and now has a 3-point shot in his repertoire. Even with the Magic's slightly crowded frontcourt, there's no reason Vucevic shouldn't get his 25-30 minutes, and 12-15 shots. And that should be more than enough to get him up near 16 points a night.

    Bet: Over 15.5 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Philadelphia 76ers

    Ben Simmons points per game: over/under 15

    This was one of the easier bets to make a decision on. We're going to hammer the over on Ben Simmons' points per game, which is currently set at just 15. In his Rookie of the Year campaign last season, Simmons put up 15.8 points a night, and he did so without really being to do anything consistently besides finish at the rim. Now he's had an entire offseason and training camp to work on his game, and even if he doesn't make a huge scoring leap, I don't see how he takes a step back this season. He's going to play something like 30-35 minutes a game and have the ball in his hands all the time. And because he does most of his work in the paint and around the rim, he's super efficient. Yes, the Celtics gave him a tough time in the playoffs last season, but most teams can't guard like the Celtics. Over the course of the season, Simmons is just too much for most opponents, and should have little trouble breaking 15 points a night.

    Bet: Over 15 (-145)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Phonenix Suns

    Deandre Ayton to win Rookie of the Year

    Look, I know I told you earlier to bet on Luka Doncic to win Rookie of the Year, and he is my pick. However, if he doesn't get the honor, it will be because Deandre Ayton takes it from him. And with great value on Ayton as well -- and no other Suns bets that intrigued me -- it's not a bad idea to bet on the big man as a hedge. Ayton is very big, very strong and very athletic, and the Suns will feed him the ball constantly. He looked solid in the preseason, and is going to put up numbers, which may very well be enough to get him the honor. And with Ayton currently sitting at +375, it's worth betting on him as well as Doncic (+333). That way you're guaranteed money if either one if these two wins ROY -- a highly likely scenario.

    Bet: Deandre Ayton to win ROY (+375)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Portland Trail Blazers

    Damian Lillard points per game: over/under 26.5

    Initially, I was a bit scared off by the high number for Damian Lillard's points per game. But the more I thought about it, Lillard should be able to get there. For one, he's averaged more than that in each of the past two seasons, so he's clearly capable. Two, the Trail Blazers are Lillard's team. When they need a bucket, they go to Lillard. Late game situations? Lillard gets the ball. Everything rests on his shoulders, which means all the shot attempts he wants, which is good for us. And speaking of those shots attempts, he's efficient from 3-point land, and gets to the free throw line a ton, both of which are crucial components to being a big-time scorer. Finally, Lillard and the Trail Blazers are coming off a devastating playoff performance, which should give him and the team plenty of motivation. For those reasons, we're going to ride with the over on Lillard's points per game. (Along these lines, Lillard at +1200 to lead the league in scoring is an interesting longshot bet.)

    Bet: Over 26.5 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Sacramento Kings

    De'Aaron Fox points per game: over/under 12.5

    Ahh, the Kings, the team with approximately 17 big men on their roster. With that group sure to split minutes and stats, we'll turn to the guards to try and find some value. Specifically, we'll zero in on De'Aaron Fox. I'm a believer in the second-year guard, and think he should take a bit of a leap this season. So we'll take the over on his points per game, which is set at 12.5. He was at 11.6 points per game last season, so even just one more bucket per game will get us the over. And considering he'll now be the full-time starter, which will mean more minutes and more shots, that shouldn't be a problem. Last season, when Fox played at least 30 minutes a night, he averaged 15.4 points per game. He should be up around that level of playing time this season, especially considering the Kings' back-up point guard options are Yogi Ferrell and Frank Mason III.

    Bet: Over 12.5 (-125)

    Credit: USATSI
  • San Antonio Spurs

    DeMar DeRozan points per game: over/under 23.5

    Boy, the Spurs have sure had a rough stretch of injuries, losing three key members of their backcourt. At least they still have DeMar DeRozan, who will now have to carry an even heavier load than he was already expecting. Still, despite the injuries, we're going to fade DeRozan's scoring this season. His over/under is set at 23.5, a number DeRozan has reached just once in his career. That was in the 2016-17 season, when he put up nearly 21 shots a night. It's hard to see him getting that many looks on a Gregg Popovich-coached team -- especially with the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay around. In fact, in the past 10 seasons, no Spurs player has averaged that many shots, and only Kawhi Leonard in 2016-17 has scored more than 23.5 points per game. And that doesn't even take into account that DeRozan will have to adjust to a new city and new team in a harder conference. He should still have a good season, but I don't see DeRozan scoring quite that much.

    Bet: Under 23.5 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Toronto Raptors

    Kyle Lowry points per game: over/under 20.5

    Just as we faded DeMar DeRozan's scoring output, we're going to do the same with his good buddy Kyle Lowry. Heading into the season, Lowry's points per game over/under is set at 20.5, and that looks like a strong under candidate. There's a few reasons for that. First, Lowry saw a reduction in minutes, shots and points last season. His 16.2 points per game were the lowest for him since 2013. Not only is he getting older, but the Raptors have a dynamite bench that allowed them to lessen Lowry's load last season. With that bench still in tact, and Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green now in town as well, it seems unlikely that Lowry is going to see a big uptick in production this season. Even if he averaged four more points per game than last season, he'd still hit the under. That gives us plenty of breathing room, and thus plenty of confidence in hammering this under.

    Bet: Under 20.5 (-135)

    Credit: USATSI
  • Utah Jazz

    Joe Ingles 3-point percentage: over/under 43.5 percent

    Joe Ingles looks more like a substitute teacher than an elite athlete, which is probably a big reason why he keeps getting overlooked, but the man can play. And he can really shoot. Recently, Ingles has become one of the league's truly elite 3-point shooters, knocking down 44 percent of his 3-pointers in each of the past two seasons. In fact, among players who took as many 3-pointers as Ingles last season (462), only Klay Thompson shot as well. But despite all of those stats, we're going to fade Ingles' 3-point percentage this season. Because, as I just mentioned, Ingles launches a ton of 3s now, and when you're shooting nearly 500 a season, it's just really tough to stay that efficient. His over/under for 3-point percentage is 43.5 percent, and just don't think he shoots quite so well this season. That would require him to be up near 44 percent again for a third straight season, and that's just really rare for guys among the top-20 in 3-point attempts.

    Bet: Under 43.5 percent

    Credit: USATSI
  • Washington Wizards

    John Wall assists per game: over/under 10

    I would be lying if some of the offseason pictures of John Wall gave me a little pause in taking the over on any of his statistical bets this season, but I think Wall will come through. Last season was the first since 2014 that Wall didn't average at least 10 assists per game, and he still put up 9.6 a night despite battling knee trouble. He's healthy now, will play tons of minutes -- during which he nearly always has the ball in his hands -- is one of the best playmakers in the game and has enough shooting around him to knock down shots. I'm not sure I trust the Wizards as a team, but I do trust Wall to have a bit of a bounce back season. Let's take that over on Wall's assists per game.

    Bet: Over 10 (-115)

    Credit: USATSI
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