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NFL Picks - Week 4

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Odds and lines are subject to change.

Today's Top Free Expert Picks

  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +703
    (59%)
    32-22-3 in Last 57 NFL Picks
    PIT @ CLE • Thu 8:15pm
    PIT -2.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Sep 28 @ 9:55am

    Analysis

    These two teams are 2-1, a surprise to many, including myself. The Steelers made changes to their offensive line prior to last week and responded with their best offensive performance by far, and I'm counting on that upgrade to help neutralize the Browns' quality defensive front. On the other side, I still don't trust the Browns offense at all after throwing for just 127 net passing yards at home against a questionable Panthers defense. This is a serious upgrade in opposing defense, and I don't have confidence in the Browns backdooring a cover. I also like fading the inexperienced head coach on a short week. I'm getting in now in case this goes to 3.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    #3
    +441
    (69%)
    9-4-1 in Last 14 NFL ATS Picks
    PIT @ CLE • Thu 8:15pm
    PIT -2.5
    -112
    Spread
    Picked: Sep 28 @ 7:25pm

    Analysis

    Playing a depleted and suspect Carolina defense, the Browns averaged 3.8 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per play. They allowed a 38 percent pressure rate. Now they face a much tougher Pittsburgh pass rush. Look for Deshaun Watson to make critical mistakes against a Steelers' defense that ranks fourth in sack rate and is tied for the lead with 19 tackles for loss. Mike McCarthy changed two starters on his offensive line entering Week 3, and the moves paid off. Pittsburgh averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three TDs while being sacked just twice.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +336
    (63%)
    10-6 in Last 16 NFL Player Props Picks
    PIT @ CLE • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    J. Warren
    Over 15.5
    -112
    Carries
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 9:45am

    Analysis

    Rico Dowdle is unlikely to make it back on the short week, and that means Warren should be in for another big workload. The two backs combined for 18 carries in each of the first two games, but with Dowdle sidelined last week, Warren had 17 carries while virtually no one else rushed the ball. RBs have combined for 25, 19 and 23 carries against the Browns in their first three games, and with the Steelers favored, the script is there for Warren to get a lot of second-half work and get into the range of 18-20 carries.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    +115
    (55%)
    23-19 in Last 42 NFL Player Props Picks
    PIT @ CLE • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    D. Washington
    Over 15.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 8:06pm

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Coming off a 67-yard performance against the Bengals, in which he saw a season high 49% route participation, I'm backing Darnell Washington to clear this low receiving yards line against the Browns. It's all about opportunity with the big tight-end, as he's cleared this line in 9/10 games with at least a 35% route share in the Aaron Rodgers Era (averaging 36.4 yards per game). Besides the fact he's coming off a big game, this is a good spot for him situationally. Cleveland is the most man-heavy defense, and Washington grades out well against the scheme. Michael Pittman is historically poor against man (yet to record a catch this season), and DK Metcalf has just been poor, period. I like this to over 17.5.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    The Maestro
    PIT @ CLE • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    K. Concepcion
    Over 3.5
    -133
    Receptions
    Picked: Sep 29 @ 10:46pm

    Analysis

    The box score shows that Browns wideout KC Concepcion caught two of nine targets last week. What it doesn't show you is how inaccurate Deshaun Watson was, often giving the rookie no chance. Watson likely will play another uneven game, but the Steelers are seriously banged-up at nickel corner. And Concepcion continues to gain quick separation. With Watson needing to account for the Steelers' pass rushers, I'm expecting many quick throws to the dynamic rookie.

Today's Top Free Player Prop Picks

Built using SportsLine's cutting-edge machine learning, predictions and ratings are generated for each player prop by analyzing historical performance, opponent matchup scores, odds, and prop line movements
  • PIT @ CLE • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    D. Watson
    Over 18.5
    -130
    Pass Completions
    PROJ: 18.6
  • PIT @ CLE • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    A. Rodgers
    Over 20.5
    -114
    Pass Completions
    PROJ: 24.2
  • PIT @ CLE • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    P. Freiermuth
    Under 3.5
    -174
    Receptions
    PROJ: 2.9

Latest News

Betting on the NFL has become a key way for fans to enjoy pro football as sports betting comes online in states across the country. Sportsbooks go all out to bring NFL bettors to their apps through an array of profit boosts, same-game parlays and other promotions. NFL odds are a key part of the discourse around the league, whether it’s the spread, money line or total for a particular game, or futures odds like who wins the championship or Rookie of the Year. Each season culminates in the biggest sports betting event of the year with the Super Bowl.

NFL Sports Betting Terms:

  • The NFL’s popularity in American sports betting and the nature of each team having just one game per week allows for bettors to dive into each matchup and look for ways to predict the outcome better than the sportsbooks. Here are a few terms you need to know if you want to learn more about NFL betting:

  • Lines:

    Lines refer to the odds for any bettable outcome in an NFL game, and they can include spreads, money lines and totals. The most standard NFL lines are spreads, in which one team is given a scoring margin they have to beat in order to win the bet, which is also known as covering. For a three-point spread, the team that’s favored will be listed as -3 and will cover if they can win by four or more points. The underdog will be listed at +3 and will cover if it wins or loses by 1 or 2 points. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, the outcome is a push, and all spread bets will be refunded their original stakes. The money line involves betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin. The odds associated with each team will be correlated with the spreads, so that betting on the underdog returns a higher profit on the same amount bet should they pull off the upset. Money line odds tell you either how much you have to bet to win $100 if the listed odds are negative, or how much can be won by betting $100 if the listed odds are positive. A -200 favorite would require a $200 bet to win $100 (or a $2 bet to win $1). A +200 underdog would pay $200 for a $100 wager (or a $1 bet would win $2).

  • Total:

    The total refers to the total number of points scored. The standard total listed for each game allows bettors to take a position on how many points will be scored over the course of the entire game. Bettors also have the option to bet total points in each half or any of the four quarters. Totals will be listed with a line and bettors can choose over or under the total listed, with payouts tied to the odds given for each side of the wager. A total of 45 with an Over of -115 and an Under of -105 will pay out $100 for every $115 wagered on the Over if the final combined score is 46 points or more, while it will pay $100 for every $105 wagered on the Under if the final combined score is 44 or less. A final score of 45 combined points will be graded a push and wagers will be refunded their original stakes.

  • Props:

    Prop betting allows bettors to take positions on any number of outcomes in a game. Those can include player props, like which players will score touchdowns; game props, like whether there will be overtime; or team props, like whether one team will go over or under a point total unique to them. Player props are one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL and are typically a core component of building same-game parlays. Key players on each team will have lines assigned to statistical outcomes, and bettors can make wagers on whether they will go over or under the line. For example, a quarterback could have props on whether they will have over or under 250.5 passing yards, or 1.5 touchdown passes, or 0.5 interceptions. Game props allow for betting on certain events happening in each game, like each team scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal. Bettors can also take positions on the winning margin, which team scores 10 points first and other variations of potential outcomes during the course of the game. Team props give bettors the opportunity to focus on one team’s point total, taking it over or under the line the sportsbooks provide. Team totals can also be available for individual halves and quarters of the game. Bigger games may also offer a number of additional team props like total yards gained as a team or sacks recorded.

  • Live Betting:

    Sportsbooks will allow bettors to make live bets during NFL games, adjusting the odds on spreads, totals, money lines and props in real time as each play happens. This allows bettors to take stock of team or player performance as the game goes along and react to certain matchup advantages they identify, injuries that impact the expected performance of the rest of the team, and even to wager on improbable comeback wins at high potential payouts. There is often an opportunity to bet on the outcome of specific drives as well, like wagering on the team that gets the ball first in the second half to score a field goal or a touchdown. Or, if two offenses appear to be struggling, bettors can back the next drive to end in a punt. Live betting also allows bettors to hedge some of their pregame bets to guarantee a profit if their wagers get out to strong starts but they want a bit of insurance. For example, an underdog that is catching 7.5 points on the pregame spread will see that line drop if they get out to an early lead, and if the sportsbooks make that underdog +2.5 on the live line, a bettor can then take the other side and know they’ll win at least one bet with a chance of hitting both if the favorite wins by 3-7 points.

  • Futures Betting:

    Futures betting refers to bets placed on future outcomes rather than a single game. These could involve which team will win a division, conference or championship, or even just whether they will make the playoffs. One popular NFL futures bet is a win total, where bettors can play whether a team will win more (over) or less (under) games than the line given by sportsbooks. A win total of 9.5 will pay to the Over if a team wins 10 or more games, while the Under will cash if that team wins nine or fewer games. Season-long awards also provide a way to take a position on certain players reaching their top outcomes. MVP, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year are just some of the awards that could be available at sportsbooks, depending on state regulations. Player props have a futures betting component as well, where bettors are predicting whether a player will finish higher or lower than the line set by the books in a particular statistical category. For example, a running back could be listed with a total of 1000.5 rushing yards or 9.5 rushing touchdowns.