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NFL Picks - Week 9

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Odds and lines are subject to change.

Today's Top Free Expert Picks

  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +646
    (73%)
    11-4 in Last 15 NFL ATS Picks
    CIN @ ATL • Sun 9:30am
    ATL +3.5
    -129
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 2 @ 11:48pm

    Analysis

    Michael Penix and the Falcons are coming off a humiliating 16-0 loss. They were facing an elite Bucs defense in a rainstorm. Now they travel to Madrid to face the Bengals in a stadium with a retractable roof. The same Bengals who just gave up 36 points to the Titans. In that overtime win, Cincy lost rookie pass rusher Cashius Howell (fractured wrist), No. 1 corner DJ Turner (heel) and defensive end Cedric Johnson (ankle). While Turner and Johnson have a chance to play Sunday, it's not an ideal situation. Atlanta gets back its top pass rusher in James Pearce following his eight-game suspension. He led Atlanta with 10.5 sacks as a rookie last year. Grab the points.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +353
    (57%)
    28-21 in Last 49 NFL Player Props Picks
    CIN @ ATL • Sun 9:30am
    player headshot
    T. Higgins
    Over 70.5
    -122
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 11:13am

    Analysis

    Tee Higgins has exploded for more than 300 receiving yards the past two weeks. This game in Madrid has shootout potential. While I like the Falcons to keep it close and cover, they’ll struggle to contain Higgins. He’s a 6-4 matchup nightmare, and he’s fully healthy. I would play this up to 73.5.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    +177
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
    CIN @ ATL • Sun 9:30am
    player headshot
    T. Higgins
    Over 71.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 11:33am

    Analysis

    FanDuel (1.5u). Tee Higgins has been an absolute monster for the Bengals this season, clearing this line in five of seven games. At 11.9 yards per target he leads the NFL (minimum 25 targets). He’ll face the pass-funnel Falcons defense (sans last week) who are allowing the sixth highest yards per target to receivers aligned out wide (9.1) - Higgins is out wide for 87% of his snaps. Plus, the Falcons run a single-high safety scheme 61% of the time (third highest rate) and that’s where Higgins thrives. Higgins out-produces Ja’Marr Chase by a wide margin against single high looks - 418 yards vs. 219 and 3.4 yards per route run vs. 1.83. Smash spot for Tee.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    +687.5
    (67%)
    10-5 in Last 15 NFL Player Props Picks
    CIN @ ATL • Sun 9:30am
    player headshot
    D. London
    Over 74.5
    -128
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 5:53pm

    Analysis

    Drake London had a big fat dud on Sunday against an elite Tampa defense. The entire Falcon passing attack struggled, but I think they’ll be far more functional against a mediocre Bengals defenses Cincinnati struggles in coverage and do not double team at a high rate, which bodes extremely well for London here. The Bengals are also the most pass heavy team in the league and could easily make this a high volume passing environment which would be optimal for London going over this line. He’s shown great chemistry with Penix outside of one game.
  • expert headshot
    Sia Nejad
    +227
    (62%)
    8-5 in Last 13 NFL Player Props Picks
    CIN @ ATL • Sun 9:30am
    player headshot
    B. Robinson
    Over 17.5
    -119
    Longest Rush
    Picked: Nov 5 @ 5:24pm

    Analysis

    Bijan Robinson has hit this Longest Rush number in 6 of 8 games. He gets a Bengals defense that has been solid but inconsistent against the run. That inconsistency was showcased last week when Pollard rushed for 117 yards, which included a 40 yard TD run. The Bengals interior may stuff some runs (particularly inside), but it's also a unit that is below average in Yards Before Contact Allowed and is no stranger to explosive rushes. Bijan is slated for 19-20 rush attempts and he should spring one of them for 18+. This number is at DK and I'd also play it at 18.5.

Today's Top Free Player Prop Picks

Built using SportsLine's cutting-edge machine learning, predictions and ratings are generated for each player prop by analyzing historical performance, opponent matchup scores, odds, and prop line movements
  • DEN @ CAR • 1:00 pm
    player headshot
    B. Nix
    Under 1.5
    -122
    Pass TDs
    PROJ: 1
  • DEN @ CAR • 1:00 pm
    player headshot
    E. Engram
    Over 18.5
    -113
    Receiving Yards
    PROJ: 22.4
  • NYJ @ KC • 1:00 pm
    player headshot
    R. Rice
    Over 4.5
    -158
    Receptions
    PROJ: 6.5

Latest News

Betting on the NFL has become a key way for fans to enjoy pro football as sports betting comes online in states across the country. Sportsbooks go all out to bring NFL bettors to their apps through an array of profit boosts, same-game parlays and other promotions. NFL odds are a key part of the discourse around the league, whether it’s the spread, money line or total for a particular game, or futures odds like who wins the championship or Rookie of the Year. Each season culminates in the biggest sports betting event of the year with the Super Bowl.

NFL Sports Betting Terms:

  • The NFL’s popularity in American sports betting and the nature of each team having just one game per week allows for bettors to dive into each matchup and look for ways to predict the outcome better than the sportsbooks. Here are a few terms you need to know if you want to learn more about NFL betting:

  • Lines:

    Lines refer to the odds for any bettable outcome in an NFL game, and they can include spreads, money lines and totals. The most standard NFL lines are spreads, in which one team is given a scoring margin they have to beat in order to win the bet, which is also known as covering. For a three-point spread, the team that’s favored will be listed as -3 and will cover if they can win by four or more points. The underdog will be listed at +3 and will cover if it wins or loses by 1 or 2 points. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, the outcome is a push, and all spread bets will be refunded their original stakes. The money line involves betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin. The odds associated with each team will be correlated with the spreads, so that betting on the underdog returns a higher profit on the same amount bet should they pull off the upset. Money line odds tell you either how much you have to bet to win $100 if the listed odds are negative, or how much can be won by betting $100 if the listed odds are positive. A -200 favorite would require a $200 bet to win $100 (or a $2 bet to win $1). A +200 underdog would pay $200 for a $100 wager (or a $1 bet would win $2).

  • Total:

    The total refers to the total number of points scored. The standard total listed for each game allows bettors to take a position on how many points will be scored over the course of the entire game. Bettors also have the option to bet total points in each half or any of the four quarters. Totals will be listed with a line and bettors can choose over or under the total listed, with payouts tied to the odds given for each side of the wager. A total of 45 with an Over of -115 and an Under of -105 will pay out $100 for every $115 wagered on the Over if the final combined score is 46 points or more, while it will pay $100 for every $105 wagered on the Under if the final combined score is 44 or less. A final score of 45 combined points will be graded a push and wagers will be refunded their original stakes.

  • Props:

    Prop betting allows bettors to take positions on any number of outcomes in a game. Those can include player props, like which players will score touchdowns; game props, like whether there will be overtime; or team props, like whether one team will go over or under a point total unique to them. Player props are one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL and are typically a core component of building same-game parlays. Key players on each team will have lines assigned to statistical outcomes, and bettors can make wagers on whether they will go over or under the line. For example, a quarterback could have props on whether they will have over or under 250.5 passing yards, or 1.5 touchdown passes, or 0.5 interceptions. Game props allow for betting on certain events happening in each game, like each team scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal. Bettors can also take positions on the winning margin, which team scores 10 points first and other variations of potential outcomes during the course of the game. Team props give bettors the opportunity to focus on one team’s point total, taking it over or under the line the sportsbooks provide. Team totals can also be available for individual halves and quarters of the game. Bigger games may also offer a number of additional team props like total yards gained as a team or sacks recorded.

  • Live Betting:

    Sportsbooks will allow bettors to make live bets during NFL games, adjusting the odds on spreads, totals, money lines and props in real time as each play happens. This allows bettors to take stock of team or player performance as the game goes along and react to certain matchup advantages they identify, injuries that impact the expected performance of the rest of the team, and even to wager on improbable comeback wins at high potential payouts. There is often an opportunity to bet on the outcome of specific drives as well, like wagering on the team that gets the ball first in the second half to score a field goal or a touchdown. Or, if two offenses appear to be struggling, bettors can back the next drive to end in a punt. Live betting also allows bettors to hedge some of their pregame bets to guarantee a profit if their wagers get out to strong starts but they want a bit of insurance. For example, an underdog that is catching 7.5 points on the pregame spread will see that line drop if they get out to an early lead, and if the sportsbooks make that underdog +2.5 on the live line, a bettor can then take the other side and know they’ll win at least one bet with a chance of hitting both if the favorite wins by 3-7 points.

  • Futures Betting:

    Futures betting refers to bets placed on future outcomes rather than a single game. These could involve which team will win a division, conference or championship, or even just whether they will make the playoffs. One popular NFL futures bet is a win total, where bettors can play whether a team will win more (over) or less (under) games than the line given by sportsbooks. A win total of 9.5 will pay to the Over if a team wins 10 or more games, while the Under will cash if that team wins nine or fewer games. Season-long awards also provide a way to take a position on certain players reaching their top outcomes. MVP, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year are just some of the awards that could be available at sportsbooks, depending on state regulations. Player props have a futures betting component as well, where bettors are predicting whether a player will finish higher or lower than the line set by the books in a particular statistical category. For example, a running back could be listed with a total of 1000.5 rushing yards or 9.5 rushing touchdowns.