What if we're wrong? That's the question I focused on all week as I prepared to write my latest mock draft. As we approach the NFL Draft later this month, there has been an avalanche of acceptance when it comes to the theory that the first four picks could all be quarterbacks.
On the one hand, it's understandable. Quarterbacks are important, and plenty of teams with the opportunity to grab one need one. But then there's the other part of this equation: the one that says we've never seen anything like that happen before. In 2021, the first three picks were all QBs (how's that working out, by the way?), and last season saw three go in the top four, but four straight? That would be unprecedented.
So what if we're wrong? What if we're all caught in an echo chamber about this QB class, and the teams don't feel the same? What if those teams are happy to let the rest of us believe it will happen so they could trade down or see players they want fall to them?
That's the approach I took for this mock. That we're all idiots who know nothing. If you're one of the 5% of people who read this intro, you'll understand what you're about to see. The other 95% can assume I'm a clueless moron. I'm fine with that.
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NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
I remain unchanged here. Caleb Williams will be a Chicago Bear. Not only do we know Williams was in Chicago this week for his team visit, but we know what restaurant the team brass took him to. The Bears are dropping any pretense of mystery surrounding the pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
While I'm taking a different approach to this mock with the QBs, I'm not changing the top two. The Bears and Commanders will take a QB. The only question is whom the Commanders take, and I'm going with Drake Maye because he's No. 2 on my board.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Now the fun begins. What if the Patriots don't want a QB? What if nobody is interested in trading up for one here? What if the Patriots decide they'd rather solve the left tackle spot for the next decade and take Joe Alt? There's been plenty of talk about how great this draft class is for tackles. If it's that good, it would make sense for one to go in the top three, wouldn't it?
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Round 1 - Pick 4
I've seen smart people speculate that the Cardinals may trade down and trade back up to get Marvin Harrison Jr. That seems overly complicated, and the kind of theory you concoct when you've spent far too much time thinking about the draft. If the Cardinals want Harrison, and he's on the board when they pick, just take Harrison.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
If things break this way, the Chargers would likely love to trade down with a team racing to get a quarterback, but it doesn't break that way here. A receiver makes sense, given the needs, but I'm holding firm to my theory that Jim Harbaugh will address the LOS first and then get a receiver later.
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Mock Trade from
New York Giants
Round 1 - Pick 6
Wait a second, what if a team did try to trade with the Chargers, but the Chargers were asking for too much to make a deal with a division rival? No problem: the Raiders find a trade partner in the Giants that allows them to come up to get Jayden Daniels.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
I've had the Titans going tackle in this spot in most of my mocks, but with two already drafted, they opt to take the top EDGE rusher on their board in Dallas Turner.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
I don't rate this EDGE class all that highly, as I see a lot of potential quality starters, but not guys who strike me as game-changers. That said, Atlanta has a need, and Verse may not be an elite prospect, but he's well-rounded and improves the defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Given the picks they've traded away this offseason, I felt the Bears were obvious trade-down candidates to add more picks. However, recent comments from GM Ryan Poles have caused me to reconsider. Reading between the lines, I don't think the Bears love this class at their positions of need, so they add Malik Nabers to a WR corps that already includes D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. What more could Caleb Williams ask for?
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Maybe the Jets go tackle in this situation, but the idea of pairing Rome Odunze with Garrett Wilson was just too enticing to pass up. Their games compliment each other so well, and would give the Jets an incredible array of talent on offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
The Vikings have two first-round picks and didn't have to package them together to move up to get the QB they want. Can you imagine? Opinions on McCarthy vary, but what he's shown an ability to do well lines up with what Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings ask their QB to do. The reason you keep seeing the Vikings connected to McCarthy is because it just makes sense.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
This is a best player available situation for the Broncos. They may move up to grab a QB, but it seems unlikely, given their lack of trade assets. Instead, they get Bowers, who immediately upgrades their thinning cadre of pass-catchers.
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Mock Trade from
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 13
I love Quinyon Mitchell. I love his size. I love his length. I love his athleticism. I love his tenacity. I want to get all that out of the way before I say the dumb thing I'm about to say. I love all of it, but am I the only one concerned about a corner from the MAC? There isn't exactly a long list of success stories! The concern isn't enough to keep me from drafting him, but my big dumb brain has big dumb thoughts it wants to share.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
I'm constantly caught in an internal dialogue about Olu Fashanu. I have concerns about Fashanu returning to school last season and not improving as a run-blocker. At the same time, he's still very young, and perhaps he needs to get on an NFL roster to learn how to be better at it. Either way, he's immediately one of the 10 best pass blockers at left tackle in the league.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
It's not the most pressing need for the Colts, but it's a need, and the way this mock has played out, I can see the Colts addressing the pass rush now instead of waiting until later when this class thins out significantly.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
I've heard so many conflicting opinions on Graham Barton that it's hard to know where he'll end up. I'm coming around on him. I don't know that he has elite traits, but he's versatile and doesn't show any glaring weaknesses. He also shows better recovery balance than some of the other highly rated tackles in this class, and it's an important trait to have.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
I consider myself a charter member of The Terrion Arnold Fan Club, so I'm a little surprised it took this long to see him come off the board in this mock. Don't worry, I shall be writing an angry letter to the author about it!
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Round 1 - Pick 18
I watched Johnny Newton play his entire college career because I'm one of maybe 10 people who actively watch Illinois football games on Saturdays regardless of their opponent. In that time, I saw Newton dominate games -- not opposing linemen, games -- from the defensive tackle position far more often than I've seen any other tackle not named Aaron Donald or Jalen Carter do at the college level.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Byron Murphy II could easily be the first defensive tackle off the board, and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes a lot earlier than this. With Aaron Donald's retirement, taking Murphy (or Newton) here makes sense for the Rams.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
If I could design my ideal center, it'd be Jackson Powers-Johnson. Everything from his size, shape and demeanor aligns perfectly with what I want from the position. He's also much more athletic than his build would have you believe at first glance. He can handle himself in open space.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
The Dolphins could go any number of directions with this pick. Here I have them taking Nate Wiggins, whom I've been moving between No. 1 and No. 2 on my CB board with Terrion Arnold for a month now.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Maybe it isn't Kool-Aid McKinstry, but I'll be surprised if the Eagles don't begin their draft by addressing the secondary. It was just too big a problem for them last year.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 23
The Vikings have added a couple of edge rushers in free agency after losing Danielle Hunter, but you can never have enough. Chop Robinson could be the best pure pass-rusher of the class, and while he's not as well-rounded as others, Minnesota wouldn't need him to be a three-down player right away.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Amarius Mims doesn't have the reps of other tackles in the class, but they lack his size, athleticism and potential. This would be a tremendous value for a Cowboys team that needs reinforcements up front.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Iowa has produced plenty of productive defensive backs over the years, some of whom have become solid NFL players. But Cooper DeJean feels different than those who came before him in the program. There's a juice and electricity to his game that stands out, and if it weren't for the broken leg that kept him from being at full strength in the pre-draft process, there would be a lot more buzz around him.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 27
Want a late first-round surprise? Look no further than Max Melton, whose name I've heard come up a few times lately as somebody to watch in the first round. He's improved throughout his career and held up well in games against guys like Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Have you looked at Buffalo's WR depth chart following the Stefon Diggs trade? I'd be shocked if the Bills don't select a receiver in the first round. They may even trade up to get one, but I don't think they'll have to, given how deep the class is.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
The Lions have shown they aren't as concerned about positional value when they feel there's a player available at a position of need. Tyler Nubin could be that player. He's my favorite safety in the class and would be an upgrade for the Lions secondary.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
In most years, Troy Fautanu isn't likely to get past No. 20, but in this draft class, the Ravens could find a potential All-Pro falling into their laps late in the first.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
I do not understand the lack of hype surrounding Jordan Morgan. He has some of the most impressive tape of any OT in the class. The 49ers have to address their offensive line in this draft, and Morgan would be a steal at 31.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Tall, fast, and can catch a deep ball? Can you imagine one of those in the Kansas City offense? Brian Thomas Jr. is the final pick of this mock, but he could go much earlier. He didn't run a complete route tree at LSU but didn't need to in his role. There may be an adjustment period, but Thomas has more in his bag than he showed in Baton Rouge.
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The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
