We're less than three weeks out from the actual draft and the closer we get to April 29 the more it feels like certain players will end up with certain teams. The top two selections feel as close to sure things as you'll have this time of year, and the 49ers also appear set to take their quarterback of the future. After that, however, this draft feels, to quote Bruce Arians, color commentator, "wide-ass open."
It's reasonable to expect at least one of the teams in the bottom half of the first round to move up for a quarterback and that's exactly what happens in this week's mock. Former NFL executive Michael Lombardi said last week that the Football Team loves Trey Lance and that he wouldn't be surprised if they traded up to get him. So that's what we have happening -- WFT moves up to No. 8 and Carolina gets No. 18, No. 74 and a 2022 second-round pick. (That's "fair" compensation, according to the trade value chart created by CBS Sports' R.J. White, but if the 49ers are willing to part with an extra first-rounder to move up to No. 3 then perhaps the Panthers can squeeze an extra first-rounder out of WFT. It doesn't matter for our purposes here -- this is where we remind you that this is a mock draft -- but if we don't mention it some folks will inevitably whine about it.)
It's another two-round mock draft this week, and in addition to the Big 5 QBs, two more find their way -- to Chicago and New Orleans in Round 2. To see how all 64 picks unfold, keep reading.
Also, a quick programming note: We'll be rolling out our seven-round mock draft on Monday, April 19.
From Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 3
Mac Jones QB
Alabama • Jr • 6'3" / 220 lbs
The top three players off the mock-draft board likely won't change down the stretch, and while fans and media seem perplexed by Mac Jones going here, if this is who Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch traded up for then Jones is headed for San Francisco.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Ohio State • Jr • 6'3" / 227 lbs
The Falcons are reportedly entertaining offers to trade down, but there are reports that also suggest that the new general manager is considering a quarterback while the new coach is comfortable moving forward in 2021 with Matt Ryan. Put another way: We have no idea what the Falcons will do, but if we were making the decision, it would be incredibly tough to pass up Justin Fields here -- especially since the '22 QB class, at least as we sit here, isn't nearly as stacked.
Round 1 - Pick 5
From Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 6
Kyle Pitts TE
Florida • Jr • 6'6" / 245 lbs
Mike Gesicki, who had 104 receptions the last two seasons, has one more year left on his deal, and while Ja'Marr Chase would be a perfectly reasonable selection here, Kyle Pitts could end up being the best pass catcher in this draft class.
Round 1 - Pick 7
LSU • Jr • 6'0" / 201 lbs
The Lions could target a QB here, but if they truly think Jared Goff can have success, then surrounding him with playmakers -- especially after letting Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones leave in free agency -- makes Chase an easy choice.
Mock Trade from Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 8
Trey Lance QB
North Dakota State • Jr • 6'4" / 224 lbs
Former NFL executive Michael Lombardi said last week that WFT loves Lance and that he could see the team moving up for him. We'll know exactly how much Washington loves Lance later this month, but there could be a handful of teams in the bottom half of Round 1 that will be in the market to move up for a QB. Lance only has 17 starts, all at the FCS level, so there's some projection to how his skills will translate to the NFL, but there is so much to love about his game.
Round 1 - Pick 9
Alabama • Jr • 6'2" / 202 lbs
Surtain is one of the most polished players in this class, and while the Broncos signed Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby, Fuller signed a one-year deal, and Bryce Callahan's contract will also expire after the '21 season.
Round 1 - Pick 10
Jaycee Horn CB
South Carolina • Jr • 6'1" / 200 lbs
We've had Surtain-to-Dallas in many a mock draft, but now that he's off the board the Cowboys could go with a linebacker or offensive lineman ... or another CB. Horn is our CB2 and he's not far behind Surtain in our minds. Put another way: Dallas isn't 'settling' here, they're getting a corner who can come in right away and play.
From Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 12
Alabama • Jr • 6'0" / 170 lbs
The Eagles moved down from the No. 6 spot a few weeks ago, an indication that they're not looking for a QB. There are still plenty of needs, including offensive line or in the secondary, but perhaps getting Jalen Hurts a playmaker on the outside should be atop the to-do list. Smith falls to No. 12 only because NFL teams could be concerned about his 170-pound frame. It wasn't an issue at Alabama, and he's one of the best players in this class.
Round 1 - Pick 13
Northwestern • Jr • 6'4" / 315 lbs
Slater opted out for 2020 but he was dominant in '19, and he more than held his own when he faced off against Ohio State and Chase Young. Slater can play tackle or kick inside to guard, though we feel he's a Day 1 starter on the outside.
Round 1 - Pick 14
Round 1 - Pick 15
Penn State • Jr • 6'3" / 245 lbs
Micah Parsons is a top-5 talent, but maturity concerns could see him slide a little on draft day. Parson addressed those concerns in recent weeks and if an NFL team is comfortable with him, he's a steal at this point in the first round. The Pats addressed a ton of needs in free agency, though they could use a middle-of-the-defense playmaker, which is exactly what Parsons is.
Round 1 - Pick 16
Round 1 - Pick 17
Zaven Collins EDGE
Tulsa • Jr • 6'4" / 260 lbs
The Raiders need to fix this defense, which is why no one would bat an eye if they drafted only defensive players the first two days of the draft. Collins was primarily an off-ball linebacker at Tulsa but he has the size, speed, strength and athleticism to line up just about anywhere.
Mock Trade from Washington Football Team
Round 1 - Pick 19
Northwestern • Jr • 6'0" / 192 lbs
The Panthers have tied their (near-term, anyway) future to Sam Darnold, so they could be comfortable trading down for picks. At No. 19 they still land a top-flight cornerback in Greg Newsome, who would immediately upgrade the secondary in Carolina.
Round 1 - Pick 20
Oklahoma State • Jr • 6'6" / 320 lbs
The Bears appear set on moving forward with Andy Dalton so we'll take that as a sign that they won't move up in Round 1 for a quarterback. If so, fixing the offensive line is important and Jenkins, who can line up on the right or left side, plays with an edge and urgency NFL teams love.
Round 1 - Pick 21
Azeez Ojulari EDGE
Georgia • Jr • 6'3" / 240 lbs
DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston were No. 1 and No. 2 in sacks for Indy last season. Buckner is a defensive tackler and Houston, an edge rusher, is a free agent. While offensive tackle is on the to-do list, Ojulari, who is the most complete edge rusher in this class, makes sense here.
Round 1 - Pick 22
Kwity Paye EDGE
Michigan • Jr • 6'3" / 265 lbs
Paye is long on physical tools, but could fall to the bottom third of Round 1 only because he's growing into the position. That said, he still upgrades a Titans pass rush that was nonexistent a season ago. It's a move Tennessee makes even after signing Bud Dupree.
From Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 23
Greg Rousseau EDGE
Miami (FL) • Jr • 6'6" / 266 lbs
Rousseau opted out in 2020 and in the process saw his draft stock fall with the emergence of Ojulari, Paye and his Miami teammate Phillips. Still, Rousseau is a high-upside prospect who hasn't played the position long, and he will continue to improve with experience and coaching.
Round 1 - Pick 24
Odafe Oweh EDGE
Penn State • Jr • 6'5" / 257 lbs
The same as last week. The Steelers need a QB, offensive tackle, RB and CB. But given the way the board fell, they opt for pass rusher. Oweh is raw but has the physical tools the Steelers covet, and in a few years we could be talking about him the way we were talking about Bud Dupree once he grew into his role.
From Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 25
Samuel Cosmi OL
Texas • Jr • 6'6" / 309 lbs
The Jags could go any a number of directions here and the good news is that this team is flush with picks, so if they don't address a particular need at the bottom of Round 1 they can circle back in Round 2 or 3 to fill the hole. For now, we have Jacksonville taking Cosmi, who was a solid presence on the left side of the Longhorns O-line.
Round 1 - Pick 26
Jamin Davis LB
Kentucky • Jr • 6'4" / 234 lbs
While NFL teams certainly knew about his talents, for the media, Davis was one of the best-kept secrets of this draft class until late in the process. But he's a special talent who's made just 11 career starts. Put another way: his best football is in front of him.
Round 1 - Pick 27
Boogie Basham Jr. EDGE
Wake Forest • Jr • 6'3" / 274 lbs
The Ravens could go with a safety, wideout or offensive lineman here, but their biggest need remains at pass rusher. Basham, who is coming off a good 2020 campaign, just feels like a Raven.
Round 1 - Pick 28
Caleb Farley CB
Virginia Tech • Jr • 6'2" / 197 lbs
Farley was our CB1 until he underwent a back procedure several weeks ago. His camp says he'll be ready in time for the season. If he's healthy, the Saints could find one of the best players in this draft class at the bottom of Round 1.
Round 1 - Pick 29
Washington • Jr • 6'3" / 290 lbs
The Packers have Kenny Clark but they could use some depth in middle of the defense; Onwuzurike opted out in '20 but didn't show any rust at the Senior Bowl or his pro day, and his blend of speed and strength make him an attractive late-first-round option for teams looking to bolster their D-lines.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Georgia • Jr • 6'1" / 195 lbs
Tre White is one of the best CBs in the NFL but there's not much depth behind him. Taron Johnson is coming off a good season but has just one year left on his current deal. Campbell would add a long, physical playmaker to a secondary that improved over the course of the 2020 season.
Round 1 - Pick 31
Notre Dame • Jr • 6'2" / 221 lbs
The Chiefs need to upgrade the offensive line, but with players already off the board the Chiefs bolster the defense with Owusu-Koramoah, who weighed 221 at his pro day and whose future could either be at linebacker or safety.
Round 1 - Pick 32
Clemson • Jr • 5'10" / 215 lbs
The Bucs are returning everyone save Antonio Brown for the '21 season, so there aren't a lot of needs here. But if they go with best player available, they could certainly do worse than Etienne, who would add another layer of dynamism to this offense.
33. Jaguars: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
34. Jets: Javonte Williams, RB, UNC
35. Falcons: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
36. Dolphins (via HOU): Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
37. Eagles: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
38. Bengals: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
39. Panthers: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
40. Broncos: Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
41. Lions: Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
42. Giants: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
43. 49ers: Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky
44. Cowboys: Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
45. Jaguars (via MIN): Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
46. Patriots: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
47. Chargers: Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma
48. Raiders: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse
49. Cardinals: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
50. Dolphins: Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana
51. WFT: Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
52. Bears: Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
53. Titans: Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF
54. Colts: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
55. Steelers: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
56. Seahawks: Aaron Banks, OL, Notre Dame
57. Rams: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
58. Ravens: Richie Grant, S, UCF
59. Browns: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
60. Saints: Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
61. Bills: Jabril Cox, LB, LSU
62. Packers: Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State
63. Chiefs: Kendrick Green, OL, Illinois
64. Buccaneers: Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama