For the first time all season, the San Francisco 49ers are favored to win a game.
Despite the fact that the 49ers are 0-9 and haven't won a game since December 2016, the team still opened as a 1-point favorite over the Giants when the early odds for Week 10 were released on Sunday. Oddsmakers clearly weren't impressed with the fact that the Giants got hammered by the Rams 51-17 in what was easily New York's most embarrassing performance of the season
The ugliest part about these latest odds is that the Giants opened as an underdog despite the fact that oddsmakers have no idea yet who the 49ers quarterback is going to be on Sunday. Jimmy Garoppolo could make his first start with the 49ers or coach Kyle Shanahan could stick with rookie C.J. Beathard, who has started the Niners' last three games.
The 49ers are 0-3 with Beathard under center, haven't covered the spread a single time with him and haven't topped the 10-point mark since he took over as quarterback, but still, they're favored, which pretty much tells you all you need to know about the Giants season.
The 49ers aren't the only team with some mystery going into Week 10. The Giants could have a few new starters this week. After the beatdown from the Rams, Giants coach Ben McAdoo said he might start trying to get a few of his young players on the field for more reps.
Playing a 49ers team that's favored might actually be the remedy the Giants need for their losing ways. The 49ers were favored in two games last season and lost them both. As a matter of fact, the 49ers have been pretty horrible recently in any game where they're favored. Dating back to November 2014, the 49ers are 3-7 straight up and 1-9 against the spread (ATS) in any game where they were favored.
One other surprising point spread comes from the Cowboys-Falcons game, and that's mainly because this will mark the first time all season that the Cowboys have been an underdog (+3.5 points). The Cowboys haven't been a dog since Week 17 last season when they lost to the Eagles 27-13 in a game where they rested all of their starters because they already had the NFC East title clinched.
Amazingly, if you only count the games where the starters played all four quarters, then the Cowboys went 3-0 last season as an underdog.
NFL Week 10 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Seahawks (5-3) at Cardinals (4-4), Thursday
Opening line: Seahawks, -6.5 points
This has been one of the wildest division rivalries in the NFL over the past three years. In their past seven games, the two teams are 3-3-1 against each other, which is about as even as you can get. Although the series has been close, the Cardinals have been horrible against the Seahawks in Arizona, going winless in their past four tries (0-3-1) and now, they'll be trying to end that streak with a backup quarterback (Drew Stanton) under center. When it comes to covering the spread, the Cards have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, going 2-6, which is tied for the second worst mark in the league in 2017.
Saints (6-2) at Bills (5-3)
Opening line: Saints, -2.5 points
This has been one of the most lopsided series between an AFC team and an NFC team in recent NFL history. Since the turn of the century, the Saints have gone 4-0 against the Bills and have outscored them 105-37. The Saints will come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL against the spread, going 6-0 ATS during their six-game winning streak. Overall, the Saints are 6-2 ATS this season, which is tied for the second-best mark in the NFL. Of course, that doesn't mean you should count out the Bills. For one, Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS in its past six games against NFC teams (5-2 straight up). Also, the Bills are unbeaten at home this year both straight up (4-0) and ATS (3-0-1).
Packers (4-3) at Bears (3-5)
Opening line: Bears, -3 points
If Aaron Rodgers was playing in this game, there's good chance the Packers would be a huge favorite, and that's mainly because Rodgers has been unbeatable against the Bears. Since the beginning of the 2011 season, the Packers have gone 11-2 against the Bears. The Packers are also 7-0 in their past seven trips to Soldier Field, including the playoffs. Of course, none of that matters because the Packers won't have Rodgers on Sunday. Although the Bears have an ugly record, they've actually been impressive when it comes to covering. The Bears are 5-3 ATS on the season, which includes covering in three of their past four games.
Browns (0-8) at Lions (3-4)
Opening line: Lions, -9.5 points
You know it's a bad year for the Browns when they're a 9.5 point underdog to the Lions. Detroit is almost never favored by this much. In the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions have only been favored by nine or more points a total of seven times and none of those have come since 2015. In those seven games, the Lions went 6-1 straight-up and 3-4 ATS. As for the Browns, although they're almost always a bad bet, they're an especially bad bet against NFC teams. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Browns are 1-8 ATS against NFC teams, which is tied for the second-worst non-conference mark over that span. The Browns are also 2-6 ATS this year, which is tied for the second worst mark in the NFL.
Bengals (3-5) at Titans (5-3)
Opening line: Titans, -6 points
Betting on the Titans when they're favored by five or more points has been a great way to burn your money over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Titans are 1-5 ATS when favored by five or more points. However, they are 5-1 straight- up in those games and their one cover came this year when they beat the Colts 36-22 in a game where Tennessee was favored by seven. As for the Bengals, they've only been an underdog of six or more a total of three times since 2014 and they're 2-1 ATS in those games (1-2 straight up). Andy Dalton is 2-0 all-time against the Titans and the Bengals have won four of the past five in this series. One thing you'll want to keep an eye on before this game is whether or not A.J. Green is given any punishment by the NFL for his Week 9 ejection.
Steelers (6-2) at Colts (3-6)
Opening line: Steelers, -10 points
Betting on a team when they're a double-digit favorite hasn't exactly been a safe thing to do this year. Through nine weeks of the 2017 season, there have been a total of 11 teams that were favored by 10 or more points and those teams have gone 4-7 ATS (9-2 straight up). Two of those games have involved the Colts, who are 1-1 ATS this year when they're an underdog of 10 or more points. Although the Colts have had an ugly record this year, they are 3-1 ATS in home games, which is one of the best marks in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Colts, their home has been a second home to the Steelers recently. The Steelers have won three straight in Indy, including a 28-7 win when they covered as an 8-point favorite last season.
Jets (4-5) at Buccaneers (2-6)
Opening line: NO LINE
This game is currently off the board because oddsmakers have no idea if the Bucs will be rolling with Jameis Winston (shoulder) or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston was pulled at halftime of the Bucs' Week 9 loss after he re-injured his shoulder against the Saints. If Fitzpatrick gets the nod, it would give him a chance to get revenge on a team that let him walk in free agency this offseason, just one year after he led them to a 10-6 record in 2015. The Jets have won eight in a row in this series and haven't lost to the Buccaneers since 1984. If the Jets are favored, they might be the smart bet. The Jets are 5-2-1 ATS this year, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL. On the other hand, the Bucs are an NFL worst 1-6-1 ATS this season.
Vikings (6-2) at Redskins (4-4)
Opening line: Vikings, -2 points
This game involves two coaches who happen to know each other pretty well. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and Redskins coach Jay Gruden were on the same staff in Cincinnati from 2011 to 2013 when both served as coordinators under Marvin Lewis. One thing we don't really know about this game is who the Vikings quarterback is going to be. Both Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford could be ready to play soon, which means Zimmer could make the call to move Case Keenum back to the bench. The Vikings have struggled to cover on the road recently. Since the beginning of 2016, Minnesota is 3-7 ATS on the road, which is the third worst mark in the NFL over that span. That total includes a game last season where the Vikings didn't cover as a 2.5-point underdog in a 26-20 loss to the Redskins in Washington.
Chargers (3-5) at Jaguars (5-3)
Opening line: Jaguars, -4.5 points
Although these teams aren't in the same division, you'd think they are based on how often they play. This game will mark the fifth straight year that the Chargers and Jags have played each other and the seventh time in eight years. The bad news for the Jags is that the Chargers have won every single one of those meetings. Since 2010, the Chargers have gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS against the Jags, which includes a game last season where the Chargers covered as a three-point favorite in a 38-14 win. Of course, the Jags were pretty bad during those past six years, which isn't the case this year. Jacksonville is 5-3 ATS in 2017, which is tied for the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
Texans (3-5) at Rams (6-2)
Opening line: Rams, -10.5 points
It looks like the Rams have finally earned some respect in Vegas. The point spread in this game marks just the second time since 2005 that the Rams have been a double-dight favorite in a game. That's what happens you have the hottest team in football going up against a team that just lost its starting quarterback (Deshaun Watson) for the season. Although the Texans are 3-5 this season, they are 5-3 ATS, which is tied for the sixth-best mark in the NFL. Of course, all the covers came with Watson under center, so maybe the smart bet here is the Rams, who are also 5-3 ATS this season.
Cowboys (5-3) at Falcons (4-4)
Opening line: Falcons, -3.5 points
If there's one month where you don't want to run into Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, it's November. Including Sunday's win over the Chiefs, Prescott is now 5-0 all-time in November, which includes a 4-1 mark against the spread. As for the Falcons, they haven't been good in any month against the spread this year. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS this season, which is tied for the second worst mark in the NFL. The Falcons are also 0-5 ATS since Week 4. As always, one thing to keep an eye in all Cowboys games is whether or not Ezekiel Elliot is going to play. The Cowboys running back has been suspended, unsuspended so many times this year, it's hard to keep track of what's going on. Currently, Elliott is allowed to play in Week 10, but that could change with one simple court ruling.
Giants (1-7) at 49ers (0-9)
Opening line: 49ers, -1 point
A lot has changed in the past five and a half years. Back in January 2012, these two teams played in the NFC title game for the right to play the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. Now, here we are in 2017 and we're about to get a game between two teams that are a combined 1-16 on the season. Although the Giants have been horrible this season, they have been covering the spread on the road. In four games this year, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on the road, which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. Of course, they're only 1-3 straight up on the road, so betting them might be a little risky. As for the 49ers, even though they're not winning, they have covered a few games. The 49ers are 4-5 ATS on the year, but just 1-3 ATS at home.
Patriots (6-2) at Broncos (3-5)
Opening line: Patriots, -7 points
With the Broncos on a four-game losing streak, it's not a total surprise to see such a big point spread here, but it is kind of shocking to see the Broncos as a touchdown underdog at home, something that almost never happens. This game marks just the third time since 1988 that the Broncos have been an underdog of seven or more points at home. It's not hard to see why the Broncos aren't being given a chance here: They don't know who their starting quarterback is, their defense just got destroyed by the Eagles and the Patriots are coming off a bye. The Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS this year, which is the second-worst mark in the AFC (ahead of only the Browns). The crazy thing about this game is that if Brock Osweiler starts, he's already beaten the Patriots on Sunday night before. Back in 2015, in a game where the Broncos were a 2.5-point underdog, Osweiler led the Broncos to a 30-24 upset win in just the second start of his career. Of course, you should never bet against Tom Brady. Since the beginning of last season, the Patriots are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Dolphins (4-4) at Panthers (6-3), Monday
Opening line: Panthers, -8.5 points
For the third week in a row, America gets a primetime game involving the Dolphins, which is bad news for us, and bad news for the Dolphins. Miami has struggled in night games recently, going just 1-6 straight up since the beginning of the 2015 season. Although the Dolphins struggle under the lights, they've been pretty good against the NFC since Adam Gase took over as coach last season. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Dolphins are 4-2 straight-up and 4-1-1 ATS, which is the second best mark of any AFC team against the NFC over the span. As for the Panthers, they're 5-4 ATS this season, but they're just 1-3 when it comes to covering the spread at home. Also, the Panthers have never beaten the Dolphins in Charlotte (0-2 all-time).
