Not the best week for me against the spread. Fortunately bad weeks against the spread are like interceptions or Thursday night losses to Georgia Tech. You just have to forget they happened, move on and fire some more shots at the net. Or something.
Whatever. There was bound to be a little market correction after coming out at 70 percent plus for the year and it's happening now. The key is to stabilize and not do stuff like -- *checks notes* -- take two 10-point favorites as your best bets? OY. What a bad move by me last week. Two double digit faves, including the Raiders laying 10 against a winless team. Come on. That's too obvious. Bad stuff.
Back to the basics this week. Make sure and check out our full breakdown on the Pick Six Podcast in the player below and keep scrolling for a couple parlays that are, uh, due to hit.
Dolphins-Browns Over 44.5
Nothing could be sexier than a matchup of the Browns and Dolphins in Week 12, right? I actually think this could be a very interesting game, however, because of the attrition that's hit both defenses over the last week or so. The Browns' situation is well-documented: Myles Garrett is going to be suspended for the rest of the season. He won't be back on the field this week against Miami. That takes away the Browns No. 1 pass rusher. Also missing will be Larry Ogunjobi, the Browns' top interior defensive lineman. That's a problem. The Dolphins just put Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain on injured reserve this week, so an already depleted defense is even thinner. This is a big-time, get-right spot for the Browns offense, especially Odell Beckham. If Cleveland gets a lead, expect a hefty dose of Nick Chubb, who is capable of ripping off long touchdown runs. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a points-scoring zombie who will be leading meaningless scoring drives when there's nothing but cockroaches roaming the earth.
Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 12 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 12 cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Steelers-Bengals Under 39
The Bengals offensive woes have been well documented this season, with Andy Dalton struggling to generate points well before Ryan Finley took over. Now with Finley under center, the Bengals aren't doing anything on offense. They have scored 23 points total in the last two weeks. One game against the Ravens is fine, but the offense couldn't move against the Raiders on the road. I don't think it will move against the Steelers at home either. The Steelers are averaging 20 points per game scored this season and 19.3 over their last four games. However, if you take out the defensive touchdowns in their last four games they're averaging 15.8 points per game. I think both teams will be hyper conservative here so it should limit defensive scoring. The weather looks like it should be fine, albeit with some decent wind, so I think this is a total under play, especially without playmakers like James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster, both of whom are likely to miss this game.
Buccaneers-Falcons Over 51.5
This over feels a little too obvious but I'm taking it anyway. Tampa Bay is the biggest pass funnel in the league (they stop the run and force everyone to pass on them and they're terrible at stopping it, it's the cool new fantasy lingo of 2019, just roll with it). Atlanta's defense is great again? Maybe? I think the Falcons got a sleepwalking Saints team and a questionable Panthers offense that didn't come to play. The Buccaneers are like the boxer who will just keep getting off the mat and throwing it deep no matter what the score. Jameis Winston plus Mike Evans plus Chris Godwin are going to put up some points with Bruce Arians pulling the trigger. There's some sneaky juice with Dan Quinn and Bruce Arians going back to their NFC West days here. Quinn's Seahawks defenses only gave up 45 points in four games to Arians' Cardinals teams. I don't think Atlanta has the firepower to slow Arians down here, but I do think Arians will remember Quinn holding him to three points twice in 2014.
Seahawks +2 at Eagles
The wrong team is favored here. It scares me to see the public all over the Seahawks for sure. And I get worried that Brian Schottenheimer will try and make this a physical run game instead of attacking the Eagles at their weak point, the secondary (a much maligned group that has played substantially better in recent weeks). But Tyler Lockett is back, Josh Gordon should get a full game in after working with Russell Wilson on the bye and D.K. Metcalf has been a revelation as a rookie. Additionally, Carson Wentz tends to struggle -- and the Eagles as a whole struggle -- when Lane Johnson is out. It appears the right tackle is going to miss this game, unless he manages to get out of the concussion protocol by Friday afternoon. If he doesn't play, Jadeveon Clowney, who is coming on like gangbusters in a contract year, could have a field day in this spot. I like Seattle to get the lead, make the Eagles one dimensional and tee off on Wentz. Pete Carroll and Wilson have won their last nine 1 p.m. ET games as well.
Jets +3 vs. Raiders
Again, wrong team favored here. The Jets aren't suddenly good or anything, but the offense has scored 34 points in each of the last two games. The Raiders struggle on defense because of injuries and youth. Sam Darnold should be able to move the ball in this game fairly well (I actually like the over as well, provided the weather is fine here). Conversely, the Jets have been good against opposing ground games so far this year. New York is giving up just 62.4 rush yards per game over its past five games and just 42.3 rush yards per game over the last three. The Raiders are much stiffer test and have run the ball well, but I don't know if they can audible and challenge the Jets vertically with Derek Carr. We'll see! I do think they'll score some points, but I would back the Jets to win this game and certainly think they'll cover as home dogs, especially with it being an early start and Oakland thinking ahead to next week's game against the Chiefs for division supremacy.
Obviously would prefer to get this at (-3) instead of having to deal with the hook, but I'm pretty confident in the 49ers either way. The Packers run defense is simply not good right now and the 49ers rush offense is as creative and dangerous as they come. I'm not particularly worried about Matt Breida missing the game, although obviously I would prefer he plays. Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert can do enough damage against Green Bay to set up play action for Jimmy Garoppolo to hit (hopefully, assuming they play) Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle (the latter was spotted looking sharp in practice, I think he goes). This is a statement game for Kyle Shanahan who should know plenty about the tendencies of Matt LaFleur, who worked under him in Washington. Long story short, I think the 49ers roll in this game. But I also like the over a ton in this spot, primarily because Aaron Rodgers will be able to get his enough to a degree that it should hit fairly easily. San Francisco's defense is excellent but Rodgers holds a grudge against this franchise and he'll be looking to put up points in prime time. He averages 300 yards and two touchdowns per game against the 49ers for his career.
Week 10 best bets ATS record: 3-4, -1u
2019 best bets ATS record: 37-29-2, +8u
Pick Six Podcast Parlay of the Week
We're the Bengals of parlays. Winless thus far. But we roll on unabated! In fact we're going to turn TO the Bengals to help us get our first winning parlay of the year. We all love that under and a couple of blue collar teams no one cares about.
Steelers-Bengals Under 38.5
Jets +3 vs. Raiders
Titans -3 vs. Jaguars
Season record: 0/11, -2.5u
Moneyline Parlay of the Week
I personally started a parlay with the Chiefs (Monday) and Texans (yay!) but you can't do that (boo) so let's see if I can't put something together featuring the last two legs of it -- the Saints and the Patriots -- and then beef it up a little with two other teams to finally hit something. We need the Jets to come through here but otherwise I like this a lot. We've got a short home dog, two big home favorites against inferior competition and the two best teams by DVOA at home, undervalued on the moneyline because of stiff competition. (I also like taking a little risk out of it and going with the 49ers, Saints and Patriots for +156 if you're so inclined.)
.5u to win 3.12u
Season Record: 0/11, -3.5u