College football picks, odds, lines for Week 4: Florida at Kentucky an easy call

Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.

Last week, I went 2-0 on the picks with one push, plus another win in the upset special. Duke beat Baylor by 14 for the push, but Notre Dame and Virginia Tech were winners.  I was confident that Purdue could beat Missouri, but even I didn't see 35-3 coming. After three weeks, I am now 7-1-1 on the regular picks and 2-1 on the upset special.

Week 3 Picks

Florida at Kentucky (O/U 44): Kentucky is a 2.5 point underdog at home to the Gators as the Wildcats look to end a 30-year losing streak to Florida. Both teams have been led by their defenses as their respective offenses struggle to put points on the board. Florida's offense still has fewer touchdowns (two) than its defense (three). Kentucky has scored in the mid-20s in each of its games so far, but not against a defense as good as Florida's. I like the Gators to win and cover that 2.5, but the real best bet here is the under. Pick: Under (44)

TCU at Oklahoma State (-11): Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has played his way into early Heisman Trophy contention, leading his team to an average of 54 points per game over the first three weeks. That includes a pair of 59-point efforts, most recently at Pittsburgh. TCU is better equipped to slow down Oklahoma State than any team they have played so far, but after surrendering only 7 points their first two weeks, the Frogs gave up 36 to SMU. TCU is a decent offensive team, but the Horned Frogs will not be able to keep up with OSU. Pick: Oklahoma State (-11)

Utah at Arizona (+3.5): Arizona has been able to generate a lot of offense against the bad teams they have played so far, but lost by three at home to Houston in what turned out to be the Cougars' season opener because of Hurricane Harvey. I think the Utes are every bit as good as Houston, if not better. Their defense should be a problem for Arizona in particular. I am not expecting a blowout or anything like that, but Utah should win comfortably. Pick: Utah (-3.5)

Upset of the Week

UCLA at Stanford (-7.5): UCLA will score. They will score early and score often. That is what the Bruins do. They have done that to everybody they have played so far and while Stanford's defense will be a step up in class from those UCLA has faced to this point, it is not a world-beater. Stanford will score too, because that is also what UCLA does -- give up points, but will the Cardinal score 50?  It may need to. Stanford will be playing at an unfamiliar site this week -- Palo Alto. It is finally the Cardinal's home opener. Stanford has yet to beat a competent opponent though and UCLA is that.  Pick: UCLA (+7.5)

Other CFP candidates in action

CBS Sports Senior Writer

Jerry Palm started writing about sports on the Internet right after Al Gore invented it. He was the first to bring RPI out in the open and is one of the pioneers of predicting the March Madness bracket.... Full Bio

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