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Doyt Perry Stadium hosts an intriguing MACtion matchup on Wednesday evening. The Bowling Green Falcons welcome the Toledo Rockets to town in the 10th game of the 2021 season for both sides. Bowling Green is just 3-6 overall, but the Falcons put up 56 points in a win last week. Toledo is 4-5 but aiming to bounce back from a close-fought loss to Eastern Michigan

Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 10.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 50 in the latest Toledo vs. Bowling Green odds. Before locking in any Bowling Green vs. Toledo picks or MACtion bets, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on a 31-20 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Toledo vs. Bowling Green and just released its coveted MACtion picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Bowling Green vs. Toledo:  

  • Toledo vs. Bowling Green spread: Toledo -10.5
  • Toledo vs. Bowling Green over-under: 50 points
  • Toledo vs. Bowling Green money line: Toledo -420, BG +320
  • TOL: The Rockets are 5-4 against the spread in 2021
  • BG: The Falcons are 7-2 against the spread this season
Featured Game | Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets

Why Toledo can cover

Defense has carried Toledo this season, but the Rockets also have a capable and effective offense. The Rockets are averaging 30.8 points per game for the season with above-average metrics in both the run and pass compared to MAC competition. Toledo is also facing a Bowling Green defense that is giving up 30.6 points per game, and junior running back Bryant Koback is enjoying a productive season. Koback is No. 2 in the MAC with 822 rushing yards, and he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. 

As a team, Toledo is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 17 rushing touchdowns, and Bowling Green is allowing 194 rushing yards per game. With the fewest interceptions (two) in the MAC and a top-five passing offense in the conference, Toledo poses a dual-threat on offense with the ability to put pressure on a below-average Bowling Green defense.

Why Bowling Green can cover

Bowling Green's offense has struggled at times this season, but there are strengths for the Falcons on that side of the ball. Bowling Green exploded for 56 points last week and, in the last five games, the Falcons are averaging 29.2 points per contest. Quarterback Matt McDonald ranks No. 3 in the MAC with 2,127 passing yards this season, and Bowling Green has three pass-catchers with at least 360 receiving yards. 

On defense, Bowling Green leads the MAC in passing resistance, giving up only 181.6 passing yards per game. The Falcons are also a top-tier passing defense in completion rate allowed (58.6 percent), yards per pass attempts allowed (6.8), interceptions (eight), touchdown passes allowed (10) and sacks (23). 

How to make Bowling Green vs. Toledo picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting 55 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's MACtion picks at SportsLine

So who wins Toledo vs. Bowling Green? And which side of the spread is hitting over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back Wednesday, all from the advanced model on a 31-20 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.