The 2018 NASCAR season rolls on at 2 p.m. ET Sunday with the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Brad Keselowski is the Vegas favorite at 6-1. Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are right behind him at 9-1, followed by NASCAR at Talledega pole-sitter Kevin Harvick at 10-1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy NASCAR tournament on sites like DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model was all over the Toyota Owners 400 last week, calling seven of the top 10 finishers and placing winner Kyle Busch and third-place finisher Denny Hamlin in his top three before the race began. Anybody who followed those picks cashed in huge.

Now that the 2018 GEICO 500 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

We can tell you the model says Keselowski, the odds-on favorite, falls short of the NASCAR at Talladega 2018 title. In fact, it says he doesn't sniff the top three.

Keselowski has just one top-10 finish in his last four starts and finished outside the top 20 at both Bristol and Texas. He'll start 10th in the GEICO 500 and isn't worth 6-1 odds in a loaded field.

Another shocker: Clint Bowyer, who is getting just the 10th-best Vegas odds at 18-1, makes a serious run at the title. Bowyer won at Talladega in 2010 and 2011 and led laps in the spring race last year.

Bowyer has four straight top-10 finishes, including a win at Martinsville. He's a driver you should be all over on Sunday.

The model also says three other drivers going off at 15-1 or longer will make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these long shots could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that was all over the Toyota Owners 400 last week.

Brad Keselowski 6-1
Denny Hamlin 9-1
Joey Logano 9-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1 
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 15-1
Kurt Busch 15-1
Clint Bowyer 18-1  
Martin Truex Jr. 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1