Sierra Leone has finished no worse than second with three victories over four career races entering the 2024 Kentucky Derby. He was stretched out from early on in his racing career, with his last three races coming at 1 1/8 miles, close to the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby distance at Churchill Downs. In comparison, Fierceness, the 5-2 favorite in the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, has only run one race at 1 1/8 miles, with two of his four victories coming in significantly shorter races than the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Will Sierra Leone's training and experience in longer races allow him to blow past other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses?
Sierra Leone is 3-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds 2024, the second-shortest mark in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. Should you include Sierra Leone in your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets or are there 2024 Kentucky Derby sleepers to target? The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. The two-year-old champion extended his lead throughout the Florida Derby, earning the highest speed figure (107) of any horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. He also posted a speed figure of 106 when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November.
However, consistency has been an issue for the Todd Pletcher-trained horse, as he finished a distant seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October and was third in the Holy Bull in February. He has established himself as the horse to beat due to the high ceiling that he showcased in the Florida Derby, but Demling is having a hard time justifying his odds against this strong field. Ultimately, Demling is going in a different direction with his pick to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Resilience comes from one of the most successful bloodlines in recent Kentucky Derby history. Resilience is the son of Into Mischief, who has sired two of the last four Kentucky Derby winners (Authentic in 2020, Mandaloun in 2021).
Resilience is a proven winner from that bloodline. In fact, he has won two of his last three races. The colt has finished third or better in four of six career races and has recently run against some of the top horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. Although Resilience finished fourth behind Kentucky Derby horses such as Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom at the 2024 Risen Star on Feb. 17, he was running at the front for the majority of the race on a sloppy racetrack that evening. Better conditions could favor Resilience, who had a drastic rise in HRN speed from an 89 in the poor conditions to a 97 score while winning the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 6. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
