A week that began as a potential two-horse race may have materialized into such at the 2023 Mexico Open. Finishing 1-2 atop the 2022 Mexico Open leaderboard, Jon Rahm and Tony Finau will duke it out once again at Vidanta with the latter possessing the 54-hole lead this time around.
Firing a course-record 61 in Round 3, the world No. 1 tried his damnedest to erase Finau's margin but will instead enter the final round two strokes off the pace of his Scottsdale playing partner at 17 under. Looking for his fifth victory before the calendar flips to the fifth month of the year, Rahm will need more of the same on Sunday as Finau looks unflappable through the first three days of action.
Signing for rounds of 65-64-65, Finau stands at 19 under with eyes on utilizing the Mexico Open as a launching pad for his summer just as he did last year. While his runner-up result fell short to Rahm in 2022, Finau's play in Mexico proved to be a spark plug as he has claimed three victories and 11 top-10 finishes in his 26 worldwide starts since.
If the pair of marquee names are to falter, one of the brightest young stars in the game will be waiting in the shadows. Former prodigy Akshay Bhatia finds himself with a great chance at 17 under to claim his first career victory on the PGA Tour. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Bhatia will join Finau and Rahm in what will be a must-watch final group.
Jon Rahm surges up the leaderboard on Saturday and Tony Finau continues his strong play. Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme recap Moving Day and setup a Sunday shootout between two of the game's best. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The leader
1. Tony Finau (-19)
Finau has been the model of consistency in 2023 with no finish worse than T31 in 10 starts with eight of those results residing inside the top 25. Despite this quality, Finau's name has been absent from the first page of the leaderboard as the putter has yet to really heat up. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach during this stretch and ranks inside the top five in strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained total. Through 54 holes, he ranks inside the top 20 in strokes gained putting, and if able to continue to hole putts with regularity, he should be able to claim his fourth victory since July.
Other contenders
T2. Jon Rahm, Akshay Bhatia (-17)
4. Brandon Wu (-16)
5. Will Gordon (-13)
6. Austin Smotherman (-12)
T7. Andrew Putnam, Eric Cole, Erik Van Rooyen (-11)
That could have easily been a 59, but the world No. 1 will instead settle for a 10-under 61. Missing chances from 12 feet and 6 feet on Nos. 15-16, Rahm came to the finishing hole needing an eagle to join the sub-60 club. His chances were dashed when his tee ball found the lip of the fairway bunker, but he still played himself back into this tournament. It was at this tournament in 2022 that Rahm's current hot streak began, and it could be at this tournament where he joins the five-win company with much of the season still to go.
"Honestly, I didn't think about it [shooting 59] until later on 18," said Rahm. "Obviously, it wouldn't change anything — my strategy wouldn't have changed in any single one of the shots I hit. It was just on 18 when I realized this could have been 60 or 59, right. It's not the easiest finishing stretch. 16 and 17 are very, very difficult and 18 tee shot with that left-to-right wind is not easy at all."
Rahm's run contextualized
Rahm will go for his fifth win of the season before the calendar flips to the fifth month of the year. Five-win seasons aren't necessarily unordinary as Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Tiger Woods have all accomplished the feat since 2013. However, the rate at which Rahm is potentially completing the task is unordinary. Each of the four players mentioned claimed their fifth victories in the months of August or September. Rahm is a bit ahead of pace with eyes on more than just five.
A bit of déjà vu
This year marks only the second playing of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, but the leaderboard resembles that of last season. While Rahm was the ultimate winner, both Finau and Wu finished runner up and signed for the then-course record of 8-under 63 on the final day. Each of these three players currently reside inside the top four with oddsmakers favoring either Rahm or Finau raising the trophy by week's end.
2023 Mexico Open updated odds and picks
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Tony Finau: 5/7
- Jon Rahm: 19/10
- Akshay Bhatia: 8-1
- Brandon Wu: 14-1
I love Finau, but it is hard to look past Rahm at plus money. Finau flashed some uneasiness on the greens Saturday, which may be cause for concern. He ranked outside the top 60 in strokes gained putting in Round 3, and while his tee-to-green steadiness will be difficult to overcome, the Spaniard will be up to the task. This tournament will be won on the greens which bodes well for the defending champion as Rahm currently leads the field in strokes gained putting.
