And just like that, it's Thanksgiving. We're nearly two-thirds of the way through the 2022 regular season and we can now treat ourselves to a little bit of turkey and stuffing to celebrate. We also have a great trio of games on Thanksgiving Day to sink our teeth into once the tryptophan kicks in and we submerge into our couches.
Of course, a few of those Thanksgiving games have made their way into my five locks of the week for Week 12 along with a few other games on deck later on this weekend, which include a "Monday Night Football" matchup and a team we're backing that is laying double digits at home.
2022 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 25-26-4
ATS: 72-86-6
ML: 97-67
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Giants at Cowboys, Thursday
This has the makings of a Cowboys rout, almost in identical fashion to Dallas' 40-3 win over Minnesota just a few days ago. New York showed some cracks in its foundation in the loss to Detroit and lost several key contributors, including top cornerback Adoree' Jackson. That should allow the Cowboys offense to continue to hum, but it's their defense that could really put the game away. The Giants are allowing the second-highest pressure rate (45%) in the NFL this season, while the Cowboys are applying the most pressure to opposing quarterbacks in the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 times in the win, which is the third-most of any game this season. With the Giants as banged up as they are and Dallas playing at a championship-caliber level, they'll win this by double digits.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
The pick: Cowboys -9.5
Texans at Dolphins
The Texans could very well make a change at quarterback before or during this game, but the view of this matchup largely stays the same. Miami is coming off its Week 11 bye and is currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC and are still undefeated (7-0) when Tua Tagovailoa plays an entire game. Hard Rock Stadium has also been kind to the Dolphins as of late as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins have already shown us that they can pile up points, scoring 30 or more in the three games leading into the bye and there's no reason to think they won't get there again as they face a Texans defense that ranks 29th in DVOA. Meanwhile, Houston's offense hasn't exceeded 20 points since Week 7.
Projected score: Dolphins 33, Texans 17
The pick: Dolphins -13
Steelers at Colts, Monday
Yes, I'm stubborn. I've faded the Colts the last two weeks in my locks and Jeff Saturday has burned me both times. Well, I'm going back to the well again which may be cause to call me clinically insane, but the Steelers are the club to back in this spot. Pittsburgh should be able to apply pressure on Matt Ryan as Indy's O-line did show a few cracks, allowing pressure on 11.1% of Ryan's dropbacks on Sunday against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Steelers blitz as much as any team in the league entering Week 12, which means T.J. Watt should feast with this favorable matchup. On top of that, Pittsburgh's run-defense ranks top 10 in the NFL in DVOA, which suggests the unit has the capability of slowing down Jonathan Taylor.
Projected score: Steelers 23, Colts 21
The pick: Steelers +2.5
Bills at Lions, Thursday
The Lions have been rolling the past few weeks, but I just have a hard time betting against Josh Allen with this line under double figures. Yes, Detroit's defense has played better in its previous three games, but that was against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo's offense is a different animal entirely. Allen has historically played well on Thanksgiving as the Bills are 2-0 SU in both games and the QB registered a 100+ passer rating in each contest. While I believe Buffalo's offense can get into the 30s indoors at Ford Field, I don't see the Lions doing that in this setting. Specifically, I have my doubts because of the protection in front of Jared Goff. Detroit grades as the 24th-ranked pass-blocking team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the third-best pass rush team in the league under the same grading system.
Projected score: Bills 33, Lions 21
The pick: Bills -9.5
Buccaneers at Browns
Tampa Bay did seem to turn a corner just before the bye. After rallying to beat the Rams in Week 9 and then edging out the Seahawks -- who were a 2.5-point favorite -- in Germany, it does feel like the Bucs are on the verge of fully righting the ship. They ran the ball well in Week 10 (161 yards on 44 attempts) and Tom Brady looked sharp with his complement of receivers healthy. Meanwhile, they get a Browns team that may be in for a letdown after giving the Bills a run for their money on Sunday and are on the doorstep of getting Deshaun Watson back next week. Since Kevin Stefanski arrived in Cleveland, the club is 17-26 ATS, which is the second worst ATS mark in the NFL over that span.
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Browns 20
The pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Rest of the bunch
Patriots at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 24, Patriots 17
The pick: Vikings -2.5
Bengals at Titans
Projected score: Titans 24, Bengals 23
The pick: Titans +1.5
Bears at Jets
Projected score: Jets 26, Bears 20
The pick: Jets -4.5
Falcons at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 26, Falcons 20
The pick: Commanders -4.5
Broncos at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 23, Broncos 17
The pick: Panthers +2.5
Ravens at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Ravens 23
The pick: Jaguars +4
Chargers at Cardinals
Projected score: Chargers 30, Cardinals 23
The pick: Chargers -4.5
Raiders at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Raiders 23
The pick: Seahawks -3.5
Rams at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Rams 20
The pick: Rams +14.5
Saints at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Saints 23
The pick: Saints +9
Packers at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 33, Packers 23
The pick: Eagles -7
