The Baltimore Ravens have been steamrolling opponents for the past nine weeks, and it appears that oddsmakers in Las Vegas are expecting much of the same this week when they play host to the New York Jets.
In the opening odds for Week 15, the Ravens have opened as a 14.5-point favorite over the Jets, which is notable for two reasons. For one, it's the fourth-largest number the Ravens have ever been favored by in franchise history. Since their first game in 1996, there have only been four prior times where the Ravens have been favored by 14 or more points.
2000: Ravens beat Browns 44-7 as a 15-point favorite
2000: Ravens beat Cardinals 13-7 as a 15-point favorite
2009: Ravens beat Lions 48-3 as a 14-point favorite
2011: Ravens beat Colts 24-10 as a 16.5-point favorite
In those four games, the Ravens went 4-0 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread (ATS). One other reason this point spread is notable is because it's one of the largest Thursday point spreads in NFL history. This game will mark just the ninth time since 1990 that a team has been favored by 14 or more points in a Thursday game. The other eight times it happened, the favored team went 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS (The under has also hit in six of the eight games).
Week 14 is almost in the books and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe right here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
The Ravens aren't the only AFC North team hosting a primetime game this week. The Steelers will be hosting the Bills on Sunday in a game where Pittsburgh has opened as a 1.5-point favorite. This game marks the seventh time that the Bills have been an underdog this year and they've gone 4-1-1 ATS in the six prior games.
For a look at all the other odds and trends for Week 15, let's get to the early odds.
Oh, and if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 15 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 15, make sure to click here.
Alright, now let's really get to the odds.
NFL Week 15 early odds
(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook via VegasInsider.com, all games on Sunday unless noted. All betting trends reflect regular season games only)
Jets (5-8) at Ravens (11-2), Thursday
Opening line: Ravens, -14.5 points
If there's one team you never want to back on the road, it's the New York Jets. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Jets are just 4-18 straight-up on the road and 7-14-1 ATS, which includes going 1-4 ATS in their past five. On the flip side, the Ravens might not be a safe bet either, and that's because they've been having some trouble covering at home. In their past 10 home games, they've gone 9-1 straight-up, but just 3-7 ATS. The Ravens have also had some trouble covering large point spreads. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, they're just 4-12 ATS when favored by 10 or more points (15-1 straight-up). As for the Jets, they're 0-10 straight-up and 4-6 ATS in the last 10 games where they've been a double-digit underdog.
Patriots (10-3) at Bengals (1-12)
Opening line: Patriots, -10 points
The last time we saw the Patriots play the Bengals after a New England loss to the Chiefs was back in 2014 when Bill Belichick gave us the phrase, "We're on to Cincinnati." That year, the Patriots rebounded off their loss to Kansas City with a 43-17 win over the Bengals. This year, it might not be much different. The past 20 times the Patriots have been favored by double-digits, they've gone 19-1 straight-up and 16-4 ATS. As for the Bengals, although they beat the Jets at home in Week 13, they've been pretty bad at Paul Brown Stadium otherwise. In their past 12 home games, they've gone 3-9 straight-up and 2-10 ATS. You probably don't want to bet the upset either, as the Bengals are 0-8 straight-up since 2017 when they're an underdog of 10 or more points.
Buccaneers (6-7) at Lions (3-9-1)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -4 points
Anyone betting on the Lions over the past few weeks has basically been throwing away their money. Not only have the Lions lost six games in a row, but they're 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games. They're also 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven Sunday games. As for the Buccaneers, they've been surprisingly good at covering the spread in December, going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 December games. One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the health of Jameis Winston, who has a slight fracture on the thumb of his throwing hand.
Bears (7-6) at Packers (10-3)
Opening line: Packers, -5 points
The kickoff temperature for this week's game is supposed to be just under 30 degrees, which could actually benefit the Bears, who are 6-0 both straight-up and ATS in their past six games where the kickoff temperature was below 40 degrees. The two knocks on the Bears going into this game is that they're 2-7 ATS in their past nine games and just 4-9 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. As for the Packers, they're 15-3 straight-up in their past 18 games against the Bears (13-5 ATS). However, Green Bay is also just 3-7 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 December games, including Sunday's win over the Redskins.
Texans (8-5) at Titans (8-5)
Opening line: Titans, -3 points
The last three times these two teams have played in Nashville, the Titans have gone 3-0 both straight-up and ATS. Since Ryan Tannehill took over as quarterback, the Titans have gone 4-0 straight-up at home and 3-0-1 ATS. The Titans are also 8-2 both straight-up and ATS In their past 10 home games against AFC South teams. As for the Texans, they've actually struggled on the road against AFC South teams, going 3-6 both straight-up and ATS in their past nine. One other reason to stay away from the Texans is because they're 0-4-1 ATS in December road games since the beginning of the 2017 season (1-4 straight-up).
Broncos (5-8) at Chiefs (9-4)
Opening line: Chiefs, -11.5 points
If we've said it once, we've said it a thousand times: Andy Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since 2015, the Chiefs have gone 25-2 straight up against divisional opponents and 20-7 ATS. That total includes eight straight wins against the Broncos where the Chiefs have gone 7-1 ATS. One thing to keep in mind is that Patrick Mahomes has a banged up throwing hand. Also, Broncos rookie quarterback Drew Lock is 2-0 both straight-up and ATS since taking over the starting job in Week 13. The Broncos are also 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall.
Dolphins (3-10) at Giants (2-10)
Opening line: Giants, -3.5 points
For the second straight week, the Dolphins are playing at MetLife Stadium, and for the second straight week, they'll be looking to cover (They covered as s 5.5 point underdog in a 22-21 loss to the Jets on Sunday). The Dolphins have actually been one of the best bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine games (3-6 straight-up). As for the Giants, they're 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS in their past five games against AFC teams. They're also 2-11-1 ATS in their past 14 home games (3-11 straight-up).
Eagles (5-7) at Redskins (3-10)
Opening line: Eagles, -6 points
The Eagles have absolutely owned the Redskins lately, winning five straight against Washington and going 4-1 ATS in those games. The Redskins have also lost seven straight to divisional opponents, going 1-6 ATS in those games. The fact that this game is being played in Washington is good news for the Eagles, because the Redskins have had some serious trouble winning at home, going 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games.
Seahawks (10-3) at Panthers (5-8)
Opening line: Seahawks, -6 points
Since Pete Carroll was hired in 2010, the Seahawks have absolutely dominated the Panthers, going 6-1 straight-up. The Seahawks have also been nearly unstoppable in the eastern time zone, winning six straight out east, while going 5-1 ATS in those games. For the season, the Seahawks are 6-1 straight-up on the road (5-2 ATS). As for the Panthers, they've turned into an utter disaster over the past few weeks, going 1-6 straight-up in their past seven games (2-5 ATS). The Panthers have also lost five in a row, going 1-4 ATS in those games. Firing Ron Rivera last week didn't seem to spark anything Panthers on Sunday as they got blown out by the Falcons 40-20 on Sunday.
Jaguars (4-9) at Raiders (6-7)
Opening line: Raiders, -5.5 points
This game could be the final one that the Raiders ever play in Oakland, which means emotions could be high. Last year when the Raiders played their home finale thinking it might be their final game in Oakland, they covered as a 2.5-point underdog in a 27-14 win over the Broncos. Although the Raiders lost to the Titans on Sunday, they've won seven of their past nine home games, while also going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games. As for the Jaguars, they're one of the worst December road teams in NFL history. Since 2008, they've gone 3-20 straight-up in December road games and they haven't been much better against the spread, going 7-16. One thing to keep in mind about the Jags is that they've lost five straight games by 17 or more points, making them the first team to hit a stretch like that since 1986.
Browns (6-7) at Cardinals (3-9-1)
Opening line: Browns, -2.5 points
The Cardinals might want to consider asking the NFL if they can play all their games on the road next year, because they've been horrible at home. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Cards have gone 2-12-1 straight-up at home and 6-9 ATS. That being said, the Browns might be the one team they can beat, and that's because Cleveland seems to struggle with NFC teams. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Browns are 2-13 straight-up and 4-11 ATS in games against NFC teams. The Browns are also just 2-19 straight-up in their past 21 games played in the pacific or mountain time zone.
Vikings (9-4) at Chargers (5-8)
Opening line: Vikings, -3 points
If there's one place the Vikings can never seem to win, it's out west. In their past 10 games played in the pacific time zone, the Vikings are just 2-8 straight-up (4-6 ATS), with their last win coming in 2015. The good news for the Vikings is that Los Angeles might be the one place where they can actually win, and that's because the Chargers are 2-5 straight-up in their past seven home games and 2-8-1 ATS In their past 11. The other good news for the Vikings is that they're 16-6 ATS in their past 22 games against AFC teams.
Rams (8-5) at Cowboys (6-7)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3 points
As you've probably heard, the Cowboys have yet to beat a team this year that currently has a winning record, and the Rams have a winning record. In games against teams that are above .500, the Cowboys have gone 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 ATS. They've also lost three straight games overall and seven of 10. As for the Rams, they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games. The Rams are also 9-4 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Rams are also 6-1 straight-up in December road games under Sean McVay.
Falcons (4-9) at 49ers (11-2)
Opening line: 49ers, -11 points
Although some teams seem to struggle on the west coast, the Atlanta Falcons definitely aren't one of them. In Matt Ryan's career, he's gone 9-3 straight-up in the pacific time zone and 10-2 ATS. Not only are the Falcons good out west, but they'll be playing a 49ers team that seems to struggle when it comes to covering double-digit point spread. In their past five games where they've been favored by 10 or more, the 49ers have gone 4-1 straight-up, but just 0-4-1 ATS. For the season, the 49ers are 8-4-1 ATS, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL.
Bills (9-4) at Steelers (8-5)
Opening line: Steelers, -1.5 points
If there's one team the Steelers have absolutely dominated this century, it's the Bills. Since 2000, the Steelers are 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 ATS against Buffalo. The Steelers have been especially dominant at home with the Bills last win in Pittsburgh coming in 1975. The Steelers have also been nearly unbeatable in December home games, going 13-2 straight-up in their past 15 (9-6 ATS). The Steelers are also 12-3 straight-up in their past 15 primetime home games (9-6 ATS). As for the Bills, they won't be intimidated and that's because they've been one of the best road teams in football this year. Not only are the Bills 5-1 on the road in 2019, but they're also 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven road games overall dating back to last season
Colts (6-7) at Saints (10-3), Monday
Opening line: Saints, -8 points
We just mentioned the Steelers impressive record in home primetime games, and the crazy thing is that the Saints might actually be better. In their past 20 primetime games played at home, the Saints have gone 17-3 straight-up and 16-4 ATS. The Saints have also won nine straight games against AFC teams, although they're just 5-4 ATS in those games. One thing that's not so great about the Saints is that they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five December games. As for the Colts, they've actually been covering machines against NFC teams, going 12-4 ATS In their past 16 games. The Colts are also 3-0 ATS in their past three primetime games (2-1 straight-up).