Congratulations for clicking on this article. Jordan Dajani is 69-53-1 on his NFL against-the-spread picks this season, and currently ranks first out of the 10 CBS Sports analysts/writers who pick every NFL game each week. He's an astounding 13-2 on his top five picks over the last three weeks -- which is something he will probably never be able to replicate in his life.
No, but in all seriousness, we are still on this absurd heater. It's a weird feeling to have virtually everything hit, and I hope you all have made some money off of me. We have officially reached the halfway point of the 2022 regular season, and things in the NFL are about to get wild.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 22-18
Overall ATS record: 69-53-1
Straight up record: 80-42-1
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Two weeks in a row I took the underdog Commanders to win straight up as a best bet, and two weeks in a row, I've cashed that plus money. However, this week I'm going to be fading Taylor Heinicke and Co. This Sunday, the Commanders are actually hosting a legitimate squad.
The Vikings are on a five-game win streak for the first time since 2017. The biggest difference between the 2022 Vikings and the 2021 Vikings is how Minnesota has fared in close contests. The Vikings are 5-0 in one-score games this season, after going 6-8 in one-score games last season. We know the famous weapons the Vikings possess on offense, but the defense is coming along as well. They forced three turnovers vs. the Arizona cardinals last week, and Za'Darius Smith is an underrated player we should be talking about more. He has recorded 15 pressures and five sacks in the last two games!
This is a revenge game for both quarterback Kirk Cousins and head coach Kevin O'Connell. Both spent time in Washington before the franchise decided they didn't want to commit to them longterm. Now, they are both thriving elsewhere. I'm taking the Vikings -3.
The pick: Vikings -3
Projected score: Vikings 24-17
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts lost the first game of the Sam Ehlinger era to the Commanders. While the former Texas QB passed for just 201 yards and lost a fumble, the defense allowed a game-winning drive from Heinicke. Indy just isn't in a good spot right now. The Colts offense is averaging 16.1 points per game this season, which ranks third-worst in the league, and shockingly, they have the fourth-worst rushing offense this year after finishing last season with the second-best rushing attack. To make matters worse, Jonathan Taylor did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to an ankle injury.
There aren't many worse places for a young quarterback to play than in Foxborough against Bill Belichick. Ehlinger would be the least experienced quarterback to EVER win on the road in the Belichick era if he finds a way to win this weekend. Mac Jones hasn't been playing great football, but this Patriots defense got back on track last week against the New York Jets. They pressured Zach Wilson on virtually every drop back and forced three interceptions. I'll lay the points with the Patriots at home.
The pick: Patriots -5
Projected score: Patriots 23-13
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bills have played seven games this season. Three of their six wins have come by at least 21 points. Buffalo didn't cover the big number against the Green Bay Packers on "Sunday Night Football," but I think the Jets are trending downwards, and I'll lay the big number. The Patriots were up 12 points on the Jets last week before New York scored a touchdown after the two-minute warning. The final score of 22-17 was not an accurate representation of how that game went.
The Jets' winning formula is running the ball and playing good defense. Breece Hall being injured is a huge hit to the run game, and then it's almost impossible to hold this Bills offensive attack in check. If the Jets can't control tempo with the ground game, they will lose. If the Jets have to rely on Zach Wilson to win with his arm, they will lose. Wilson has completed just 9-of-47 attempts under pressure this season, has been sacked more times than he has completed a pass when under pressure, is the only quarterback in the NFL to complete fewer than 30 percent of his passes under pressure and averages an NFL-worst 3.0 yards per attempt under duress. This Bills defense is going to pressure him, and be successful in doing so.
The pick: Bills -11.5
Projected score: Bills 31-17
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Panthers have covered the spread in two straight games after starting the season 1-5 ATS, but I wonder if that overtime loss to the Atlanta Falcons took some juice out of this squad. The Bengals aren't anything to boast about either, as they were embarrassed by Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns on Halloween night, 32-13, but this could serve as a bounce-back spot at home. After all, the Panthers have lost seven straight road games while the Bengals have won five out of their past six games in Cincinnati.
The offensive line is going to have to protect Joe Burrow better and either Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd is going to have to break out in Ja'Marr Chase's stead, but I like this spot for Cincinnati with the spread at seven.
The pick: Bengals -7
Projected score: Bengals 26-13
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
Last week, I made the underdog Saints a best bet to win straight up against the Las Vegas Raiders. I didn't bring any kind of advanced statistics to the table. I simply mentioned that the Saints have one of the best offenses in the league, and that Andy Dalton now has some certainty with his role on the team as starting quarterback. The Saints came through for me with a 24-0 blowout victory. Alvin Kamara scored three touchdowns, and the defense finally showed up. Not only did they allow just 183 yards of total offense from Derek Carr and Co., but the Raiders offense didn't cross midfield until there were just two minutes left in the game!
I'm calling my shot with the Saints this week -- not only in their Week 9 matchup -- but just in general. This week, I wrote a piece attempting to predict the playoff picture. I chose the Saints to win the NFC South over the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If this Saints defense is going to play like they did last week for the rest of the season, they are going to have a real shot. I think that if the Saints win on Monday night, you'll see the national narrative around this team change.
The Saints are averaging 29.6 points per game this season with Dalton under center, while the Ravens average 26 points per game. I expect this one to be close, but I like New Orleans at home.
The pick: Saints +2.5
Projected score: Saints 30-27
Other Week 9 picks
Eagles (-14) 28-10 over Texans
Lions (+3.5) 29-23 over Packers
Dolphins (-4.5) 24-14 over Bears
Chargers (-3) 30-23 over Falcons
Jaguars (+1.5) 23-21 over Raiders
Cardinals (-2) 27-23 over Seahawks
Buccaneers (-3) 24-20 over Rams
Chiefs (-12.5) 31-14 over Titans
