October is a great month. I was born in it. It's one of the best sports months of the year.
Oh, and I usually get hot with my NFL picks.
I wouldn't say last week was hot as in fire hot, but maybe more like soup that had been sitting out for a bit after coming off the stove.
I went 9-7 against the spread to raise my season record to 31-31-2 and I went 9-7 straight up to get to 35-29. My Best Bets for the Pick-Six Podcast went 4-3 to raise my season record to 14-12.
It's progress. Now it's time to string together a few good weeks to really get going in October.
Los Angeles Rams (-2) at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle pulled out a tough road victory last week, while the Rams were dominated by the Cardinals at home. The Rams have traditionally played well against Seattle, even in Seattle, which is why I think they will bounce back. The Seattle pass defense has too many busts that will show up here for Matt Stafford. Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 30, Seahawks 19
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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3) in London
The Falcons lost a tough one at home last week to Washington, while the Jets won for the first time this season, beating the Titans. The Falcons are still capable of lighting up a defense, but the Jets are getting better on that side of the ball. The Atlanta defense is awful. I think Matt Ryan will get the best of his battle with Zach Wilson. Falcons win it.
Pick: Falcons 30, Jets 21
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
The Vikings are playing a third straight at home. They must have this game after losing to the Browns Sunday. Detroit has stayed around in games, but this might be one that gets away. Minnesota's offense struggled against the Browns, but they will get back on track in this one. Vikings big.
Pick: Vikings 31, Lions 21
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (+1.5)
The Saints lost at home to the Giants, a game they were big favorites to win. They are a tough team to figure out right now. Washington rallied to beat the Falcons, but their defense remains a major concern. Taylor Heinicke is playing well right now. This is the game the Washington defense finally shows up.
Pick: Washington 21, Saints 17
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+9)
The Texans are awful. The offense is bad with rookie Davis Mills and I can't wait to see what Bill Belichick throws at him. The Patriots offense did some good things against Tampa Bay with Mac Jones. This might be an ugly game to watch, but the Patriots are the better team right now and Jones is the better rookie passer. New England takes it.
Pick: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
Tampa Bay is back home after two road games, splitting both games. They haven't quite looked like the Super Bowl team from a year ago. But the Dolphins are the perfect tonic. Miami is a disaster on offense right now. Look for the Bucs to dominate this game in a big way.
Pick: Bucs 31, Dolphins 20
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
This is a big game for both teams this week. Can you believe it? Both are 3-1, with the Bengals a big surprise. They have extra rest here that will help, but I just don't think they will slow down Aaron Rodgers. This could be a shootout with Joe Burrow also having a big day. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 36, Bengals 30
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
The Steelers have looked lifeless on offense, while the Broncos could be starting backup Drew Lock. That means this will be all about the defenses. That means a low-scoring game with a turnover or two deciding it. I think at home the Steelers will be the team that makes those plays. Even with a pathetic offense, they win it with their defense.
Pick: Steelers 19, Broncos 13
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers suffered their first loss last week, but after two straight on the road they return to face an Eagles team that is 1-3. Philadelphia did some good things on offense against the Chiefs, but the defense had issues. Carolina's defense is coming off a tough game at Dallas, but I think they regroup here. It's close, though.
Pick: Panthers 24, Eagles 23
Tennessee Titans (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans have won seven of eight in this rivalry and Derrick Henry has dominated the series. He has nine touchdowns in the past three seasons with two 200-yard plus rushing games in that time. The Jaguars have been OK against the run, but not here. Henry will continue running over them as the Titans get back on track after the loss to the Jets.
Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 17
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are coming off two impressive showings against two top AFC teams. Now they get a third. The Browns are playing consecutive road games, which will be a challenge. But the Chargers are on a short week. The Browns running game should be able to control the game flow in this one. The score will stay down and the Browns will hang around. Chargers win, but the Browns stay close.
Pick: Chargers 23, Browns 22
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
The Bears and their struggling offense are just what the Raiders need to get back on track after losing to the Chargers. Chicago could go back to Andy Dalton here if he's healthy. If not, it's Justin Fields. The problem is the Bears offensive line will have issues with the Raiders front. That will challenge whoever plays quarterback. Las Vegas big.
Pick: Raiders 27, Bears 13
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
The Cardinals are the best team in football right now and Kyle Murray is playing MVP football. The offense is tough to stop. The 49ers will likely counter with rookie Trey Lance making his first start. He will use his legs a lot more than Jimmy Garoppolo, which will present a real challenge for Arizona. But they practice against Murray. They will be fine defending that style, which will allow them to stay undefeated with an impressive victory.
Pick: Cardinals 30, 49ers 21
New York Giants (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
The Giants are playing consecutive road games after beating the Saints in overtime last week. Daniel Jones was outstanding in that game. The Cowboys have won three straight and are much improved on defense. The Giants, though, will hang around in this game because of Jones. Dallas wins it, but it's close.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Giants 26
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is an enormous game for playoff seeding down the line. The Chiefs have already lost twice, once at home, so they can't afford another loss here. The Bills lost to the Chiefs twice last season, but have addressed their biggest issue in those losses, which is pass rush. I think they've done enough there to slow Patrick Mahomes some and Josh Allen and the Bills will go into Arrowhead and pull off a big upset.
Pick: Bills 30, Chiefs 28
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
This is a third consecutive road game for the Colts against a Ravens team playing home for the first time after two on the road. And it's in prime time? That's a bad combination for the Colts. I think the Ravens will play well on defense again like they did against the Broncos and the Colts won't handle Lamar Jackson. Ravens take it.
Pick: Ravens 30, Colts 13