The stakes might not be as high for the Alabama Crimson Tide in Saturday's 2022 Iron Bowl, but a home loss to the arch-rival Auburn Tigers would make a down year exponentially worse. Of course, a "down" year for the Crimson Tide means they are 9-2, while the Tigers (5-6) come into the game at Bryant-Denny Stadium with problems of their own. Alabama is almost certain to miss a shot at the national title for just the second time in the past nine years. A stretch of four straight games against ranked teams produced two losses, meaning they will be home as Georgia and LSU battle for the SEC title next week. One of the losses was to LSU, and the other was to then-No. 6 Tennessee. They bounced back with victories against No. 11 Ole Miss and a 34-0 rout of Austin Peay last Saturday. The Tigers are 2-1 since former star running back Cadillac Williams took over as interim coach for the fired Bryan Harsin, and they cruised past Western Kentucky 41-17 last Saturday. 

Kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide are 22-point favorites in Caesars Sportsbook's latest Auburn vs. Alabama odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 50. Before finalizing any Auburn vs. Alabama picks or bets, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Auburn vs. Alabama and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Alabama vs. Auburn:

  • Auburn vs. Alabama spread: Crimson Tide -22 
  • Auburn vs. Alabama over/under: 50 points 
  • Auburn vs. Alabama money line: Crimson Tide -2000, Tigers +1050 
  • AUB: Their six losses are by an average of 16.5 points 
  • ALA: Their two losses are by a total of three points 
  • Auburn vs. Alabama picks: See picks here
  • Auburn vs. Alabama streaming: Paramount+
Featured Game | Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers

Why Alabama can cover

Alabama has won all five of its home games, going 4-1 against the spread, and it remains one of the nation's best on both sides of the ball. It is in the top 20 in FBS in total offense and defense and both scoring categories. The Tide outscore opponents by an average of 22.8 points per game and the offense averages 466.5 yards (17th) while the defense yields just 313.5 (13th). The Tigers average 365 (79th) and give up 395.6 (78th), and their strength is in the run game. Alabama has the fourth-best run defense in FBS, allowing 108 rushing yards per game.

Auburn has one of the worst passing games in FBS (178.3 yards per game), and All-American Will Anderson (eight sacks) will be after Robby Ashford all day. Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young (2,644 yards, 24 TDs, four INTs) leads a Bama offense that averages 40.6 points (fourth in FBS). The running game should find success, as Auburn is 93rd in allowing 175 rushing yards per game. Tide backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan have combined for 1,343 rushing yards. Alabama has lost once in its past 112 against unranked opponents.

Why Auburn can cover

Auburn is 4-3 ATS in its conference games this year, and it will look to pound the ball. Ashford has not been successful in the passing game, but he has rushed for 589 yards and five touchdowns, so he could present an unfamiliar challenge for the Tide. Junior running back Tank Bigsby is a load to bring down, and he ranks 36th in the nation with 907 rushing yards (5.5 per carry) and has scored 10 TDs. Backfield mate Jarquez Hunter also could be a handful for the Tide defense, as he has 750 total yards and has scored nine TDs.

Bigsby rushed for 110 yards against the Hilltoppers last week, while Hunter rushed for 109 (8.4 per carry) and threw a 20-yard TD pass. Receivers Koy Moore and Ja'Varrius Johnson both average more than 15.5 yards per reception, so they could find some space downfield if Bama stacks up against the run. Auburn is 4-0 ATS in its past four games in November, and the Tigers have some talent on the defensive side. Derick Hall has 6.5 sacks, and the team has 28, while it has 12 takeaways. Cornerback D.J. James returned an interception for a touchdown last week.      

How to make Auburn vs. Alabama picks

The model has simulated the Alabama vs. Auburn matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is going Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 58 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's CFB picks at SportsLine

So who wins the Auburn vs. Alabama matchup on Saturday in Tuscaloosa? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Auburn spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model that has been crushing its top-rated college football picks, and find out, and don't forget to stream on Paramount+.