Fantasy Football 2023: Projected Strength of Schedule for QBs shows concerns for Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers

Don't draft a quarterback until you read this

I've always believed that Fantasy Football is all about the matchups, and I've always hated the concept of Strength of Schedule. But one day about four years ago, I thought about what it would take to make a Strength of Schedule that would be beneficial to Fantasy managers.

Obviously it meant analyzing each defense. Because, hello, defenses are what make the matchups.

But it had to be more than that. It meant having to dig into every single defensive player, how they fit into the defensive scheme they're playing in, who they're playing for, who's backing them up, how each team defends certain positions, and so on.

That seemed like a lot of work.

But I tried it. And it wasn't perfect, it did help.

In the years since I've perfected the process, and while injuries and surprising play -- both in a good way and in a bad way -- will alter how defenses do, I like the concept of what I've built: The Projected Strength of Schedule (or PSoS) for every position on every team. At minimum, it will give you a potential tiebreaker when debating between two players in your drafts. At most, it's a warning sign to avoid certain position groups across the league.

If you're reading this, you're on the page that breaks down the PSoS for quarterbacks. You'll find out about the players who have easy projected schedules, difficult projected schedules, and everyone in between. If you're interested in the methodology behind these numbers, you should read this. 

For now, here's a look at how each offense's quarterback ranks in terms of PSoS, with 1 being the easiest and 32 being the toughest. There's a table for the whole season, the first four weeks of the season (who might get off to a hot start?!) and Weeks 15 through 17 (Fantasy playoffs).

• Full PSoS rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE  

I'll highlight some players after these ranks so please remember to scroll all the way through.

Season-long PSoS for QBs

GB	1	JAX	17
NO	2	SEA	18
ATL	3	LV	19
HOU	4	KC	20
CLE	5	LAR	21
IND	6	LAC	22
CAR	7	DEN	23
TB	8	ARI	24
SF	9	DAL	25
DET	10	PHI	26
CHI	11	WAS	27
TEN	12	NYJ	28
CIN	13	BUF	29
PIT	14	MIA	30
BAL	15	NE	31
MIN	16	NYG	32

Weeks 1-4 PSoS for QBs

SF	1	NO	16
GB	2	PIT	18
JAX	3	CLE	19
KC	3	DET	19
IND	5	PHI	19
HOU	6	NYG	22
SEA	7	WAS	22
CAR	8	CHI	24
DEN	9	LV	25
BAL	10	TEN	26
LAC	10	BUF	27
TB	10	MIN	27
ATL	13	MIA	29
CIN	14	ARI	30
DAL	14	NYJ	31
LAR	16	NE	32

Weeks 15-17 PSoS for QBs

ATL	1	LAC	17
PHI	2	KC	18
CHI	3	DEN	19
CLE	4	LAR	20
IND	5	DET	21
TEN	6	NYG	22
SF	7	MIN	23
NO	8	ARI	24
PIT	9	WAS	25
GB	10	SEA	26
CAR	11	BAL	27
LV	12	NE	28
HOU	13	DAL	29
CIN	14	NYJ	30
TB	15	BUF	31
JAX	16	MIA	32

Biggest winners

Anthony Richardson, Colts: Assuming Richardson begins the season as the Colts' starter, he'll play divisional games against the Jaguars and Texans followed by a step up in competition at Baltimore before stepping back down against the Rams and Titans at home, then the Jaguars again. It's a great start for a promising talent against defenses that are shaky versus the run as well as the pass.

Deshaun Watson, Browns: The Browns quarterback has the fifth-easiest projected schedule, a surprise given how strong the AFC North usually is. Blame it on the Steelers and Ravens not having dominant pass-coverage units as in the past, along with the Bengals replacing both starting safeties from last year. If Watson's pass protection is top-notch, he may re-emerge as a must-start, obviously improving the prospects for Amari Cooper and David Njoku, too.

Jordan Love, Packers: Green Bay's first two games are on the road against improved defenses in Chicago and Atlanta, but neither is especially difficult and both are ripe for Love to take off for ground gains as well as attack deep downfield. The rest of the schedule, thanks in part to a watered-down NFC North and a non-first-place schedule, will give Love enough chances to break out.

Biggest losers

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: I love Dallas' defense, but I also think the other defenses in the NFC East will be tough to beat. Tack on showdowns against the 49ers, Chargers and the entire AFC East and it leaves only five games where Prescott won't see much pass rush pressure. Being fair, he has the O-line to handle tough blitzes, but it's worth bringing up that Prescott's completion rate sank from 72.1% to 50.5% and his Expected Points Added (EPA) collapsed from 0.22 to minus-0.22 when pressured last year.

Aaron Rodgers, Jets: Playing against Bill Belichick, Vic Fangio and Sean McDermott-coached defenses twice each tends to lead to some projected issues. Tack on tough pass defenses in the Cowboys, Eagles, and Browns and you've got a schedule riddled with challenge after challenge. The first three games against Buffalo, Dallas and New England certainly could make for a disappointing start. The Jets' schedule forced me to push Rodgers down in my rankings.

Daniel Jones, Giants: The Eagles twice, the Cowboys twice, the Commanders twice, the AFC East once each, the 49ers, Packers and Saints once each. This is the Giants' reward for their good-enough-to-make-the-playoffs run last year. No team in the league comes close to this tough a slate. This is what keeps me from wanting to take a chance on Jones, who scored more than 22 Fantasy points just five times in 2022, none against his division rivals.

Don't draft them, trade for them

Justin Fields, Bears: Chicago's schedule really isn't that hard, but the first four weeks of the season include the Packers, Buccaneers and Chiefs, each of which figure to cause some problems. If you don't mind those matchups and want to commit to Fields for the long haul, then draft him. But if you don't, or if you just miss out on Fields on Draft Day, be ready to pounce on him in a trade if he starts the year slowly.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings: There are maybe three matchups in the first 10 weeks of the season that are recognizably favorable: the Panthers, the Bears and the Falcons. Everything else is tough including the Buccaneers, Eagles and Chargers in the first three weeks of the season (with the Chiefs, 49ers, Packers and Saints looming). It's hard to not like Cousins considering his safe floor and really enticing receiving corps, but at the very least do not prioritize him.

Draft them, then consider selling high

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: The schedule is easy early for Lawrence, who you'll obviously draft as a weekly starter. And he should be a top-12 passer on the season. But if he catches fire and you can turn him and someone else on your squad into a top-three QB before he plays the likes of the Bills, you just might punch your ticket to the Fantasy playoffs.

Geno Smith, Seahawks: Opening the year against the Rams, Lions, Panthers and Giants pass rushers and secondaries should result in some good numbers, particularly since everything the Seahawks have done this offseason has improved the targets and protection around Smith. He's one of my favorite Draft Day bargains since those who draft him can stream him early and then move him for help elsewhere on the roster.

This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.