The country's oldest, continuously held major sporting event returns on Saturday when 20 3-year-old horses leave the starting gate in the 2023 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Equal parts party and pageantry, the Derby has been staged every year at Churchill Downs without interruption since the inaugural running on May 17, 1875.
The storyline of Derby week has been the number of horses scratched from the race, as four were removed from the field in a 24-hour period from Thursday to Friday before morning-line favorite Forte became the fifth horse scratched on Saturday roughly 10 hours before post time. No immediate reason was given for Forte's removal, which came following a morning workout, though the horse stumbled during an on-track workout on Thursday.
With just three alternates available for the Derby, Forte's scratch reduces the size of the field to 18 horses. It will be the smallest field to start the race since 2020, when No. 18 Authentic, who started furthest on the outside, beat No. 17 Tiz the Law. That Kentucky Derby was run in September due to a COVID-19 postponement, so a better parallel may be 2015, when American Pharoah won an 18-horse race that saw four scratches prior to post.
Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move (10-1) was another contender of note but was the first horse scratched from the race on Thursday due to an elevated temperature.
Lord Miles was also scratched Thursday by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission out of precaution after two horses trained by Lord Miles' trainer, Saffie Joseph. Jr., died in races at Churchill Downs earlier this week. Joseph has been suspended indefinitely by Churchill Downs Inc.
Continuar became the third horse scratched on Thursday, with his trainer citing lack of "peak fitness required" to compete in the Derby. On Friday morning, popular Derby underdog Skinner became the fourth horse scratched in a 24-hour period, with the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission citing an elevated temperature as the reason.
As for the horses still scheduled to run in the Derby one year after longshot Rich Strike shocked the world by winning at 80-1 odds, this year's race features another wide-open field. Major contenders include: Tapit Trice, who is the most expensive horse in the race at $1.3 million; Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire, who is trying to become just the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby; and Derma Sotogake (10-1), who is looking to become the first Japan-bred to win the Run for the Roses. Following Forte's scratch, live odds posted on Kentucky Derby's website
Below, we'll take you through everything to know about this year's Derby, from profiles of all the horses involved to info about the race and the Road to the Kentucky Derby, to where to find official betting strategy, including win picks and exotic plays, from a host of SportsLine experts.
What to know about the 149th Run for the Roses
- What 149th Kentucky Derby
- Where Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
- Who 18 3-year-old horses
- Purse $3 million
- Distance 1¼ miles
- Post time 6:57 p.m. ET
- Network NBC
- Weather forecast Cloudy with a high of 74 degrees
Kentucky Derby live odds
As of 10:12 a.m. ET Saturday following Forte scratch. Click here for updated odds throughout the day.
- 1 Hit Show 26-1
- 2 Verifying 17-1
- 3 Two Phil's 7-1
- 4 Confidence Game 16-1
- 5 Tapit Trice 9-2
- 6 Kingsbarns 10-1
- 7 Reincarnate 13-1
- 8 Mage 17-1
9 Skinner SCR10 Practical Move SCR- 11 Disarm 24-1
- 12 Jace's Road 32-1
- 13 Sun Thunder 30-1
- 14 Angel of Empire 9-2
15 Forte SCR- 16 Raise Cain 30-1
- 17 Derma Sotogake 7-1
- 18 Rocket Can 27-1
19 Lord Miles SCR20 Continuar SCR- 21 Cyclone Mischief 33-1
- 22 Mandarin Hero 21-1
- 23 King Russell 32-1
Road to the Kentucky Derby
The road to Louisville began in September and covered 48 races over three continents. Here are the most significant races of the Kentucky Derby trail:
Nov. 4, Breeders' Cup Juvenile This was the coming-out party for Forte, who scored a neck win in the most prestigious 2-year-old race of the year. The victory helped him earn champion 2-year-old honors for 2022 and made him one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
Feb. 18, Risen Star Stakes This race, which was won by Angel of Empire, has been lost with the last round of Derby preps, but it produced the winners of both the Arkansas Derby (Angel of Empire) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (Two Phil's), as well as a third Derby starter in Sun Thunder.
Feb. 25, Rebel Stakes Run on a sloppy track and with a fast early pace, the Rebel was won by Confidence Game, who came from off the pace that day. (Reincarnate finished third and Verifying fourth.) After the race, Confidence Game was not able to recover in time for the last round of Derby preps and enters the Run for the Roses on an unusual 10-week layoff.
March 4, Fountain of Youth Stakes Forte made a smashing 2023 debut, winning by 4¼ easy lengths and beating three other Derby entrants in the process.
March 11, Tampa Bay Derby Tapit Trice overcame a slow start to win but beat a suspect field.
March 25, UAE Derby Japan-bred Derma Sotogake went gate-to-wire in a smashing 5½-length win that speed figure makers widely say was the fastest of all the Derby preps, but he may have benefited from a speed-favoring track and a weak field.
March 25, Louisiana Derby The lightly raced Kingsbarns improved to a perfect 3-for-3 in a gate-to-wire victory, but the victory has been questioned because of the glacially slow fractions he set on the lead.
March 25, Jeff Ruby Steaks Two Phil's had his breakthrough race with a 5¼-length romp, but the performance came on a synthetic surface, not dirt.
April 1, Florida Derby Forte confirmed his status as the Kentucky Derby favorite with a win over the lightly raced Mage, but the victory came with some uneasy moments for his connections as he looked beaten until the final strides.
April 1, Arkansas Derby Angel of Empire stamped himself as a strong contender for the Run for the Roses with a powerful finish in a convincing win, but the quality of that field has been questioned.
April 8, Blue Grass Stakes Tapit Trice showed a new ability to get into a race early and chased down Verifying, who received a perfect trip up front, in what arguably was the best performance of the Derby preps.
SportsLine expert picks
SportsLine has four great horse racing experts who have locked in their Derby picks. Here's a preview of each:
Michelle Yu, an on-air host and reporter with a background training horses who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, crushed the Saudi Cup, riding a 15-1 winner, nailed Derma Sotogake to win the UAE Derby and hit the exacta in the Santa Anita Derby, all since February. In the Derby, Yu is fading Tapit Trice, even though he's one of the top 2023 Kentucky Derby favorites and just won the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. She also has her eye on a longshot who "will get more ground to work with in the Derby, which is what he is crying out for." Check out Yu's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.
Bob Weir, a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas who is a member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team, crushed the Kentucky Derby prep races last year, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes and exactas in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby, as well as multiple exactas over the last five weeks at SportsLine. Weir is high on Verifying at the Derby but his top pick bypasses the favorite and keys in on a double-digit underdog who "could end up with a perfect stalking trip." Get Weir's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.
Jody Demling, who has hit the Derby-Oaks double 10 times in the last 14 years, is also fading Tapit Trice, who he has finishing eighth on his projected leaderboard. He's especially high on a massive longshot who has looked outstanding training at Churchill Downs and will be there with a shot in the end. Find Demling's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.
Gene Menez -- who has hit six of his last seven races for SportsLine, all since Jan. 21 -- is fading Tapit Trice, the 5-1 favorite. But Menez is high on Two Phil's, a 12-1 longshot. "He is improving at the right time, and he has looked like a million bucks in the morning, turning in back-to-back bullet workouts in preparation for the Derby," Menez told SportsLine. Menez's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy is available at SportsLine.
Kentucky Derby horses (morning-line odds)
1 Hit Show (30-1)
- Trainer Brad Cox
- Jockey Manny Franco
- Last race Second in the Wood Memorial by a nose
- Career record 5 starts: 3 wins, 1 second
- Career earnings $404,375
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 93 (2023 Wood Memorial)
- Sire Candy Ride
Considered the third strongest of trainer Brad Cox's four Kentucky Derby entrants, Hit Show enters the 2023 Kentucky Derby a bit under the radar. He's coming off a second place finish in a Wood Memorial that's the slowest of the Derby prep races. In that race he was nosed out by 59-1 longshot Lord Miles in a three-way blanket photo finish. He received a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 93 for the performance.
But that effort may be better than it looks on paper. In the Wood, he drew post 12 out of 12 runners and was forced to be used early and run wide on both turns, covering more ground than the winner. Hit Show also was bumped repeatedly down the stretch. The Beyer Speed Figure does not factor in ground loss or traffic trouble in its formula, so perhaps that 93 number can be looked at somewhat favorably.
In addition, despite the slow time of the Wood, his last two races have been the fastest of his career; he received a 91 in winning the Withers Stakes on Feb. 11. Supporters of Hit Show are getting a horse who might be slightly slower relative to the field, but is at least moving in the right direction.
Post-draw analysis
After the drawing the far outside in the Wood Memorial, Hit Show drew the dreaded No. 1 post in the Kentucky Derby. No horse has won the Derby from the No. 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. To be fair, Churchill Downs has used a new, slimmer starting gate since 2020, so the rail draw is not as bad as it used to be, but it's still not ideal.
The good news for Hit Show is that he does his best running late, so getting a forward position is not critical for him. Also, after losing all of that ground in the Wood with the No. 12 post, he gets to save all of the ground on Saturday from the rail.
Those who like Hit Show shouldn't be too discouraged after he drew the rail, but he still needs to get faster to contend on Saturday.
2 Verifying (15-1)
- Trainer Brad Cox
- Jockey Tyler Gaffalione
- Last race Second in the Blue Grass Stakes by a neck
- Career record 6 starts: 2 wins, 2 seconds
- Career earnings $489,900
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 99 (2023 Blue Grass Stakes)
- Sire Justify
Recent Kentucky Derby history is littered with the less-heralded of a trainer's horses winning the Run for the Roses ... Get the full breakdown of Verifying at SportsLine.
3 Two Phil's (12-1)
- Trainer Larry Rivelli
- Jockey Jareth Loveberry
- Last race First in the Jeff Ruby Steaks by 5¼ lengths
- Career record 8 starts: 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third
- Career earnings $683,450
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 101 (2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks)
- Sire Hard Spun
Two Phil's hasn't done a lot of running on the inside, so the No. 3 post will be a new experience for him ... Get the full breakdown of Two Phil's at SportsLine.
4 Confidence Game (20-1)
- Trainer Keith Desormeaux
- Jockey James Graham
- Last race First in the Rebel Stakes by one length
- Career record 7 starts: 3 wins, 1 seconds, 2 thirds
- Career earnings $785,525
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 94 (2023 Rebel Stakes)
- Sire Candy Ride
The last time Confidence Game started in a race, the calendar was still on February. The exact date was Feb. 25 when the colt took advantage of a pace meltdown ... Get the full breakdown of Confidence Game at SportsLine.
5 Tapit Trice (5-1)
- Trainer Todd Pletcher
- Jockey Luis Saez
- Last race First in the Blue Grass Stakes by a neck
- Career record 5 starts: 4 wins, 1 third
- Career earnings $883,650
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 99 (2023 Blue Grass Stakes)
- Sire Tapit
This may be more frivolous than fruitful, but watch a replay of the stretch run of Tapit Trice's Blue Grass Stakes win and the stretch run of his sire, Tapit, winning the 2004 Wood Memorial. They're almost exactly the same ... Get the full breakdown of Tapit Trice at SportsLine.
6 Kingsbarns (12-1)
- Trainer Todd Pletcher
- Jockey Jose Ortiz
- Last race First in the Louisiana Derby by 3½ lengths
- Career record 3 starts: 3 wins
- Career earnings $657,300
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 95 (2023 Louisiana Derby)
- Sire Uncle Mo
Todd Pletcher trains the Kentucky Derby favorite, Forte, and the second-choice on the morning-line, Tapit Trice. So Pletcher's "third-best" contender is merely an undefeated colt who was purchased for $800,000 ... Get the full breakdown of Kingsbarns at SportsLine.
7 Reincarnate (50-1)
- Trainer Tim Yakteen
- Jockey John Velazquez
- Last race Third in the Arkansas Derby by 4¾ lengths
- Career record 7 starts: 2 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds
- Career earnings $345,650
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 95 (2023 Sham Stakes)
- Sire Good Magic
Originally trained by Bob Baffert, Reincarnate emerged as a major contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby after he won the Sham Stakes on Jan. 8 under Baffert's training with a fast Beyer Speed Figure of 95 ... Get the full breakdown of Reincarnate at SportsLine.
8 Mage (15-1)
- Trainer Gustavo Delgado
- Jockey Javier Castellano
- Last race Second in the Florida Derby by one length
- Career record 3 starts: 1 win, 1 second
- Career earnings $247,200
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 94 (2023 Florida Derby)
- Sire Good Magic
When Ramiro Restrepo saw this son of Good Magic being offered at an auction last year, he was smitten. So he set his budget for the horse at $200,000. When the price soared over that number, he eschewed the budget and decided to pay whatever it took ... Get the full breakdown of Mage at SportsLine.
9 Skinner (20-1)
Scratched on Friday. See profile at SportsLine.
10 Practical Move (10-1)
Scratched on Thursday. See profile at SportsLine.
11 Disarm (30-1)
- Trainer Steve Asmussen
- Jockey Joel Rosario
- Last race Third in the Lexington Stakes by 4¾ lengths
- Career record 5 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
- Career earnings $327,850
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2023 Louisiana Derby and Lexington Stakes)
- Sire Gun Runner
A dead ringer of his sire, Gun Runner (who finished third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby), Disarm enters this year's Derby with a relatively light résumé. He has only one win in five career starts, and that came back in August ... Get the full breakdown of Disarm at SportsLine.
12 Jace's Road (50-1)
- Trainer Brad Cox
- Jockey Florent Geroux
- Last race Third in the Louisiana Derby by 6¼ lengths
- Career record 6 starts: 2 wins, 2 thirds
- Career earnings $238,050
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2022 Gun Runner Stakes)
- Sire Quality Road
The least heralded of trainer Brad Cox's four Kentucky Derby entrants, Jace's Road may not have a good chance of winning the race, but he may play a role in who does ... Get the full breakdown of Jace's Road at SportsLine.
13 Sun Thunder (50-1)
- Trainer Ken McPeek
- Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
- Last race Fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes by 6½ lengths
- Career record 6 starts: 1 win, 1 second, 1 third
- Career earnings $247,500
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 89 (2023 Blue Grass Stakes)
- Sire Into Mischief
Entering last year's Kentucky Derby, no traditional handicapping maxim pointed to Rich Strike, which is why he went off as the longest shot in the field, at 80-1. But there was one obscure stat that may have hinted at Rich Strike's shocking, late-running win ... Get the full breakdown of Sun Thunder at SportsLine.
14 Angel of Empire (8-1)
- Trainer Brad Cox
- Jockey Flavien Prat
- Last race First in the Arkansas Derby by 4¼ lengths
- Career record 6 starts: 4 wins, 1 second
- Career earnings $1,069,375
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 94 (2023 Arkansas Derby)
- Sire Classic Empire
Angel of Empire has surprised even trainer Brad Cox. When this $70,000 purchase (a relatively modest amount in the "sport of kings") was ready to make his career debut last summer, Cox did not have the colt with his A string of 2-year-olds at Saratoga ... Get the full breakdown of Angel of Empire at SportsLine.
15 Forte (3-1)
Scratched on Saturday. See profile at SportsLine.
16 Raise Cain (50-1)
- Trainer Ben Colebrook
- Jockey Gerardo Corrales
- Last race Fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes by 6¾ lengths
- Career record 7 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
- Career earnings $296,328
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2023 Gotham Stakes)
- Sire Violence
If the Kentucky Derby were run at one mile around one turn on a muddy track, then Raise Cain might be one of the major contenders. The best performance of his career came two starts ago in the one-mile, one-turn Gotham Stakes on a muddy track ... Get the full breakdown of Raise Cain at SportsLine.
17 Derma Sotogake (10-1)
- Trainer Hidetaka Otonashi
- Jockey Christophe Lemaire
- Last race First in the UAE Derby by 5½ lengths
- Career record 8 starts: 4 wins, 2 thirds
- Career earnings $1,162,164
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure N/A
- Sire Mind Your Biscuits
No horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby is coming off a bigger margin of victory than Derma Sotogake. The Japan-bred went gate-to-wire in the UAE Derby and crushed his rivals by 5½ expanding lengths. How good was that performance? ... Get the full breakdown of Derma Sotogake at SportsLine.
18 Rocket Can (30-1)
- Trainer Bill Mott
- Jockey Junior Alvarado
- Last race Fourth in the Arkansas Derby by 4¾ lengths
- Career record 7 starts: 2 wins, 2 seconds
- Career earnings $383,413
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 91 (2023 Fountain of Youth Stakes)
- Sire Into Mischief
Rocket Can entered the month of April as a promising Kentucky Derby contender. In February he won the Holy Bull Stakes, and one month later he finished second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes behind Forte ... Get the full breakdown of Rocket Can at SportsLine.
19 Lord Miles (30-1)
Scratched on Thursday. See profile at SportsLine.
20 Continuar (50-1)
Scratched on Thursday. See profile at SportsLine.
21 Cyclone Mischief (30-1)
- Trainer Dale Romans
- Jockey TBD
- Last race Third in the Florida Derby by three lengths
- Career record 7 starts: 2 wins, 3 thirds
- Career earnings $246,350
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 91 (2023 Florida Derby)
- Sire Into Mischief
After a decent 2022, Cyclone Mischief exploded onto the scene with a win in an allowance race in January at Gulfstream Park over next-out winner Litigate. The victory earned a career-best 90 Beyer Speed Figure ... Get the full breakdown of Cyclone Mischief at SportsLine.
22 Mandarin Hero (20-1)
- Trainer Terunobu Fujita
- Jockey Kazushi Kimura
- Last race Second in the Santa Anita Derby by a nose
- Career record 6 starts: 4 wins, 2 seconds
- Career earnings $386,854
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 100 (2023 Santa Anita Derby)
- Sire Shanghai Bobby
First, let's not confuse Derma Sotogake with Mandarin Hero. While the former was competing on the top racing circuit in Japan last year and earning champion dirt 2-year-old honors, the latter was running on the second-tier circuit ... Get the full breakdown of Mandarin Hero at SportsLine.
23 King Russell (50-1)
- Trainer Ron Moquett
- Jockey Rafael Bejarano
- Last race Second in the Arkansas Derby by 4¼ lengths
- Career record 6 starts: 1 win, 3 seconds
- Career earnings $322,350
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 87 (2023 Arkansas Derby)
- Sire Creative Cause
A $60,000 purchase two years ago, King Russell has earned more than $322,000 in his career, so he already has given his owners a great return on their investment. He started his career at Churchill Downs in September, running fifth in his only start on the track. ... Get the full breakdown of King Russell at SportsLine.
