One horse will take a major step toward the Kentucky Derby when the starting gate opens in the 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs outside Tampa, Fla. The Sam F. Davis Stakes 2023 is the most important prep race for the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby on March 11. Remsen Stakes winner Dubyuhnell is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds. Nashua Stakes winner Champions Dream is second in the odds at 9-2 in the 12-horse Sam F. Davis Stakes 2023 field. Litigate (5-1) and Prairie Hawk (6-1) round out the top four choices. The winner of the Sam F. Davis will receive 20 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby.
Post time is 5:18 p.m. ET. With 12 lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
On Dec. 26, Menez hit the Pick 5 at Santa Anita Park for $798.70. Three weeks ago he cashed the winner of the Lecomte Stakes for $172.50. Two weeks ago he nailed the exacta in the Southwest Stakes for $468, and last week he hit the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes for $180.
Now, he has handicapped the 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Top 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes predictions
One surprise: Menez is almost completely fading 9-5 morning-line favorite Dubyuhnell, even though is a major contender. Trained by Danny Gargan, Dubyuhnell has two wins in three career starts. He is coming off a half-length victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 3 at Aqueduct.
But even though he has won his last two starts, both of those wins came on a sloppy track. "And while there's forecast for rain on Saturday, there's no guarantee that the track will be sloppy for Dubyuhnell," Menez told SportsLine. Menez prefers four horses over the favorite and is using the horse only sparingly in his wagers. See who it is at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks
Menez's top pick is a horse who "will benefit with the added distance." He also is high on a big double-digit longshot whose "price is too good to pass up." He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Check out the latest Sam F. Davis Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds, post positions
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worthington | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Prairie Hawk | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Classic Legacy | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Laver | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Groveland | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Classic Car Wash | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Dubyuhnell | 9-5 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Notah | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Champions Dream | 9-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Dreaming of Kona | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Litigate | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Zydeceaux | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
