John Velazquez can add to his record number of victories by a jockey when he hops aboard the favored Fierceness in the 2024 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The 52-year-old Velazquez has five wins in the Florida Derby, two more than any other jockey. On Saturday, he'll go for No. 6 with reigning 2-year-old champ Fierceness, the 8-5 favorite in the 2024 Florida Derby odds. The Shug McGaughey-trained Conquest Warrior is the 3-1 second choice in the 11-horse 2024 Florida Derby field, while Holy Bull Stakes winner Hades is 7-2.
The 2024 Florida Derby post time is 6:42 p.m. ET. With several lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2024 Florida Derby picks.
A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014.
In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023.
Now, he has handicapped the 2024 Florida Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Florida Derby predictions
One surprise: Weir is low on the chances of Fierceness, even though he is the clear favorite at 8-5. A son of City of Light, Fierceness has been inconsistent in his four-race career. After winning his debut, he finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes. After a sparkling victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he came in a dull third in the Holy Bull Stakes.
In addition, he drew the difficult No. 10 post for the Florida Derby. With a short run to the first turn, Fierceness runs the risk of being caught wide and losing ground to his rivals. "He can win, but he's hard to trust," Weir told SportsLine. Weir prefers two 2024 Florida Derby horses over Fierceness. You can see all of Weir's 2024 Florida Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Florida Derby picks
Moreover, Weir's top pick is a horse who "gives every indication of an improving 3-year-old." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "capable of hitting the board." Weir is including these horses in his 2024 Florida Derby bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Florida Derby 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Florida Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Florida Derby, all from the horse racing insider who nailed last year's exacta, and find out.
2024 Florida Derby odds, contenders
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Frankie's Empire | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Hades | 7-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Bail Us Out | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Grand Mo the First | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Real Macho | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Le Dom Bro | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Catalytic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Seminole Chief | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Conquest Warrior | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Fierceness | 8-5 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Iris's Dream | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
