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A field of 11 three-year-olds will try to take the final step towards the Kentucky Derby when they leave the starting gate in the 2022 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Since the inaugural Florida Derby in 1952, 24 horses have won both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, including Spectacular Bid in 1979. The Florida Derby 2022 has attracted the top field of any Kentucky Derby prep race so far, led by Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Simplification, the 5-2 favorite in the 2022 Florida Derby odds. White Abarrio, who won the Holy Bull Stakes, is 3-1 in the 2022 Florida Derby field, while Charge It and Classic Causeway are 7-2.

Post time for the $1 million Florida Derby 2022 is 6:38 p.m. ET. With very little separating the top four choices on Saturday, you'll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any Florida Derby picks of your own.

A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes, with the Tampa Bay score returning $1,414. Those were just some of his scores in 2021.

This year, he has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and Louisiana Derby, the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores.

Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Florida Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.

Top 2022 Florida Derby expert picks

One surprise: Weir is down on the chances of White Abarrio, even though he is one of the top favorites. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., this gray/roan colt has three wins and one third in four career starts. In his last race, he won the Holy Bull Stakes, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, the best in the field.

However, White Abarrio drew outside of the other speed horses on Saturday and will have to use his speed from post No. 7. "He may be forced to either stalk from the outside of Charge It or Classic Causeway or be hard used to clear those," Weir told SportsLine. Weir will not use White Abarrio on top and prefers three 2022 Florida Derby horses over him.

How to make 2022 Florida Derby picks

Weir's top pick is a "big horse who should appreciate the stretch-out in distance." He also is high on a double-digit long shot to make waves late. Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Florida Derby picks, and so should you. He's only sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Florida Derby? What double-digit long shot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers? Check out the latest Florida Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Florida Derby, and find out.

2022 Florida Derby odds, contenders, horses, lineups, post positions

Prg #HorseOddsProjection
1Strike Hard20-1 SEE PICKS HERE
2Classic Causeway7-2 SEE PICKS HERE
3Simplification5-2 SEE PICKS HERE
4King of Truth50-1 SEE PICKS HERE
5Pappacap10-1 SEE PICKS HERE
6Charge It7-2 SEE PICKS HERE
7White Abarrio3-1 SEE PICKS HERE
8Cajun's Magic30-1 SEE PICKS HERE
9O Captain20-1 SEE PICKS HERE
10Clapton30-1 SEE PICKS HERE
11Steal Sunshine30-1 SEE PICKS HERE