The Kentucky Derby's field is larger than it used to be, so the history for some post positions isn't as long as others. However, that doesn't mean that we can't see some trends develop either way. The post positions were set on Tuesday, and with them came the morning line odds. Omaha Beach is the favorite out of post 12, so while it's a tough outside track, the horse still has a good shot based on its speed.
The horses on the inside three posts have 20-1 odds, and Roadster has 6-1 odds out of No. 17. If Bob Baffert's Roadster were to pull off a win, it would be the first time the horse out of the 17th position managed to win the Derby.
Here's a look at the full history of each post in the Kentucky Derby, along with the horses occupying this year and their odds.
| Post Number | No. of wins (and last win/horse) | 2019 horse (and odds) |
|---|---|---|
1 | 8 winners (1986/Ferdinand) | War of Will (20-1) |
2 | 7 winners (1978/Affirmed) | Tax (20-1) |
3 | 5 winners (1998/Real Quiet) | By My Standards (20-1) |
4 | 5 winners (2010/Super Saver) | Gray Magician (50-1) |
5 | 10 winners (2017/Always Dreaming) | Improbable (6-1) |
6 | 2 winners (1993/Sea Hero) | Vekoma (20-1) |
7 | 7 winners (2007/Street Sense) | Maximum Security (10-1) |
8 | 8 winners (2009/Mine That Bird) | Tacitus (10-1) |
9 | 4 winners (1972/Riva Ridge) | Plus Que Parfait (30-1) |
10 | 9 winners (2005/Giacomo) | Cutting Humor (30-1) |
11 | 2 winners (1988/Winning Colors) | Haikal (30-1) |
12 | 3 winners (1971/Canonero II) | Omaha Beach (4-1) |
13 | 5 winners (2016/Nyquist) | Code of Honor (15-1) |
14 | 2 winners (1961/Carry Back) | Win Win Win (15-1) |
15 | 3 winners (2000/Fusaichi Pegasus) | Master Fencer (50-1) |
16 | 5 winners (2013/Orb) | Game Winner (5-1) |
17 | N/A | Roadster (6-1) |
18 | 2 winners (2015/American Pharaoh) | Long Range Toddy (30-1) |
19 | 1 winner (2012/I'll Have Another) | Spinoff (30-1) |
20 | 1 winner (2008/Big Brown) | Country House (30-1) |
Improbable, Vekoma, Maximum Security, Tacitus Plus Que Parfait and Cutting Humor are sitting pretty in posts 5 through 10, which have produced 40 Derby winners As for why post position matters so much, in a race as short as the Derby (1 1/4 miles), every little bit matters, especially a clean start.
Omaha Beach has his work cut out for him, but his odds appear to be in good shape. We've seen horses come screaming around the outside before, including eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the No. 18 post in 2015.
We'll see how it all shakes out on Saturday, once the race gets underway. For the time being, however, it's easy to see why jockeys, owners and trainers alike tend to sweat the draw so much. Ultimately, the horses win the race, but a good starting spot helps.
