2019 PGA Championship odds, best picks: Tiger Woods projection from top-rated model that called four majors
SportsLine simulated the entire 2019 PGA Championship 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard
The par-71 Bethpage Black Course in Farmington, N.Y. has hosted the U.S. Open and Barclays twice, and it will host the Ryder Cup in 2024. Beginning Thursday morning, it will be the site of the 2019 PGA Championship, marking the first time this challenging venue has been home to this historic major. Players like Tiger Woods (8-1), Brooks Koepka (10-1) and Jordan Spieth (30-1) will look to climb the list of majors won, while the current 2019 PGA Championship odds also feature plenty of contenders looking to break through in a major for the first time like Rickie Fowler (16-1), Xander Schauffele (25-1) and Jon Rahm (18-1). The first 2019 PGA Championship tee times are bright and early at 6:45 a.m. ET on Thursday. Whether you're leaning towards picking a proven champion or searching for a player who could record a career-defining victory this week, you need to see the 2019 PGA Championship picks and predictions from the advanced golf model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the last PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.
Now that the 2019 PGA Championship field is set, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a four-time champion, reigning Masters winner, and the top Vegas favorite, doesn't even crack the top five.
Woods completed a remarkable comeback with a thrilling victory last month at the Masters. His win at Augusta marked his 15th major title, which now puts him three behind Jack Nicklaus' record of 18. It was his first major title in 11 years and he'll look to capture multiple majors in a single season for the first time since 2006 starting with the PGA Championship 2019.
However, Woods has not played in a PGA Tour event since capturing his fifth green jacket in April. That doesn't bode well for the 43-year-old golfer who underwent spinal fusion surgery two years ago, especially at an extremely challenging course like Bethpage Black. In two major tournaments held at Bethpage, only six players have finished under par. And with no competitive rounds under his belt over the last month, Woods could struggle like he did in 2012 at The Barclays, his last start at Bethpage. Woods shot 5-over in his final round of that tournament, finishing 1-over and 11 shots behind the winner, Nick Watney.
Plus, Woods has never won the Masters and PGA Championship in the same year. SportsLine's model isn't calling for back-to-back major victories and sees far better values in this loaded field than the 8-1 premium he's commanding, lower than the 14-1 he was fetching at the Masters.
Another surprise: Jon Rahm, an 18-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
The 24-year old Spanish golfer is No. 8 in the FedEx Cup standings and enters the PGA Championship 2019 as the No. 11 player in the world. Driving distance could be the x-factor for him at the 7,468-yard Bethpage Black. Rahm is in the top 20 on the PGA Tour this season in average drive length at 305.8 yards, which could help him avoid many of the pitfalls at this challenging course. At the 2009 U.S. Open, the last time a major was held at Bethpage Black, only five players finished under par.
Rahm has been on the cusp of breaking through in a major. He took fourth at the 2018 Masters and at last year's PGA Championship. Overall, he's finished in the top 10 in three of his last five majors and has all the skills to make a run this week in golf's second major of the year. Look for him to fly up the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard in short order.
Also, the model says five other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.
So who will win the 2019 PGA Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 PGA Championship odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 PGA Championship projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors.
Tiger Woods 8-1
Dustin Johnson 10-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Brooks Koepka 10-1
Rickie Fowler 16-1
Jon Rahm 18-1
Justin Rose 18-1
Francesco Molinari 20-1
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Jordan Spieth 30-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Patrick Cantlay 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Adam Scott 50-1
Sergio Garcia 60-1
Webb Simpson 60-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-1
Bubba Watson 60-1
Henrik Stenson 60-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Gary Woodland 60-1
Ian Poulter 60-1
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