The 2021 PGA Championship begins Thursday on the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort. After adding 200 yards since the PGA Championship was last played on the world-class course, it will be the longest layout in major championship history. With unpredictable winds blowing off the Atlantic Ocean, players have been advised to practice from multiple tees since 14 holes could play from any tee box based on wind. With the PGA Championship 2021 players heading to the tees starting at 7 a.m. ET, who can you trust with your golf picks?

Rory McIlroy has never had any trouble with distance and navigated the wind brilliantly in 2012 to win the PGA Championship by eight strokes at this same venue. Accordingly, he's the 11-1 favorite in the 2021 PGA Championship odds from William Hill Sportsbook coming off a win two weeks ago. Jordan Spieth is fresh off his seventh top-10 in his last nine starts and is listed at 16-1. Before locking in your 2021 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2021 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it's up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm's (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing. In fact, McClure's best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger's win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland's (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he's made in the past few months.

This same model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model's top 2021 PGA Championship predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2021: Bryson DeChambeau, the fifth-ranked player in the world and the 2020 US Open champion, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. The 2020 US Open champion is the fifth-ranked player in the world and leads the tour in driving distance.

Excelling at the Ocean Course relies more on accuracy than distance, and that's where DeChambeau falls short. He ranks 172nd in driving accuracy percentage and is also outside the top 50 in greens in regulation percentage. With much of the course bordering the Atlantic Ocean, fierce winds can affect ball flight, so precision is mandatory to performing well.

DeChambeau also won't enter the PGA Championship 2021 with momentum since he's struggled in recent tournaments. He's coming off a 55th-place finish at last week's AT&T Byron Nelson and has finished outside the top 40 in three of his last four tournaments. DeChambeau is always impressive off the tee, but that alone won't carry him at Kiawah Island, so your 2021 PGA Championship bets may be better served elsewhere.

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a 22-1 long shot in the latest PGA Championship 2021 odds, makes a strong run at the title. Schauffele has a much better chance to win than his PGA odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 27-year-old is a four-time PGA Tour winner and becoming a fixture near the top of major championship leaderboards in four years as a pro.

Schauffele has eight top-10 finishes in just 15 career starts in majors, including runner-up finishes at the 2018 Open Championship and 2019 Masters as well as third-place finishes at the 2019 U.S. Open and 2021 Masters. Schauffele currently ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained per round (1.890) and is fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking thanks to top-20 finishes in 12 of his last 14 starts. See who else to back here.

Watch the 2021 PGA Championship beginning Thursday with Rounds 3-4 streaming live over the weekend on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+. Check out the updated PGA Championship schedule for how to watch the year's second major all week long.

How to make 2021 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting four golfers with odds longer than 20-1 to make a strong run at the title, including an epic underdog. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the 2021 PGA Championship? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that is up almost $10,000 since the restart.

2021 PGA Championship odds

Rory McIlroy 11-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Jon Rahm 14-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 16-1
Dustin Johnson 18-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Daniel Berger 30-1
Collin Morikawa 30-1
Brooks Koepka 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 35-1
Webb Simpson 35-1
Cameron Smith 35-1
Patrick Reed 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Scottie Scheffler 40-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Tyrrell Hatton 45-1
Will Zalatoris 50-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Abraham Ancer 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 55-1
Sung-Jae Im 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Justin Rose 66-1
Shane Lowry 66-1
Sergio Garcia 66-1
Corey Conners 66-1
Adam Scott 70-1
Keegan Bradley 70-1
Brian Harman 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Max Homa 80-1
Matt Wallace 80-1
Garrick Higgo 80-1
Jason Day 80-1
Si-Woo Kim 80-1
Charl Schwarzel 90-1
Bubba Watson 90-1
Robert Macintyre 100-1
Jason Kokrak 100-1
Lee Westwood 100-1
Harris English 100-1
Matt Kuchar 100-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Rickie Fowler 125-1
Cameron Tringale 125-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 125-1
Cameron Champ 125-1
Charley Hoffman 150-1
Branden Grace 150-1
Russell Henley 150-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Alex Noren 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Stewart Cink 150-1
Ian Poulter 150-1
Emiliano Grillo 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Ryan Palmer 175-1
Chris Kirk 175-1
Francesco Molinari 200-1
Kevin Kisner 200-1
Cameron Davis 200-1
Martin Kaymer 200-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Thomas Pieters 200-1
Harold Varner 200-1
Kevin Streelman 200-1
Victor Perez 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Brendon Todd 200-1
Phil Mickelson 200-1
Carlos Ortiz 200-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
Bernd Wiesberger 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Henrik Stenson 250-1
John Catlin 250-1
Danny Willett 250-1
Talor Gooch 250-1
Sam Horsfield 250-1
Dean Burmester 250-1
Erik Van Rooyen 250-1
Lanto Griffin 250-1
Denny McCarthy 300-1
Harry Higgs 300-1
Thomas Detry 300-1
Antoine Rozner 300-1
Maverick McNealy 300-1
Martin Laird 300-1
Steve Stricker 300-1
Andy Sullivan 300-1
Tom Lewis 300-1
Tom Hoge 300-1
Mackenzie Hughes 300-1
Byeong Hun An 300-1
Adam Hadwin 300-1
Rasmus Hojgaard 300-1
Jazz Janewattananond 350-1
Jim Herman 400-1
Kalle Samooja 400-1
J.T. Poston 400-1
Brandon Stone 400-1
Padraig Harrington 400-1
George Coetzee 400-1
Sami Valimaki 400-1
Kurt Kitayama 400-1
Aaron Rai 400-1
Jimmy Walker 500-1
Rikuya Hoshino 500-1
Peter Malnati 500-1
Robert Streb 500-1
Brian Gay 500-1
Adam Long 500-1
Chan Kim 500-1
Hudson Swafford 500-1
Daniel Van Tonder 500-1
Richy Werenski 500-1
Takumi Kanaya 500-1
Jason Scrivener 500-1
Chez Reavie 500-1
Lucas Herbert 500-1
Brett Walker 500-1
Jason Dufner 500-1
Vijay Singh 1000-1
Y.E. Yang 1000-1
John Daly 1000-1
Brad Marek 2000-1
Sonny Skinner 2000-1
Peter Ballo 2000-1
Patrick Rada 2000-1
Greg Koch 2000-1
Alex Beach 2000-1
Stuart Smith 2000-1
Danny Balin 2000-1
Rich Beem 2000-1
Mark Geddes 2000-1
Rob Labritz 2000-1
Frank Bensel 2000-1
Omar Uresti 2000-1
Ben Polland 2000-1
Larkin Gross 2000-1
Derek Holmes 2000-1
Ben Cook 2000-1
Tim Pearce 2000-1
Joe Summerhays 2000-1
Shaun Micheel 2000-1
Tyler Collet 2000-1