The 2021-22 PGA Tour season is largely on pause with many players taking time away from the game around the holidays, but another smaller-field event with a unique format takes place this week at the 2021 QBE Shootout. There will be 12 teams of two players each competing for the $3.6 million purse with play beginning on Friday at Tiburon Golf Course in Naples, Fla. The tournament began in 1989 and the two-player format has led to some sensationally low-scoring.
Harris English and Matt Kuchar have won the event three times and shot a tournament-record 37-under par last season. They're back again and are listed at 13-2 in the 2021 QBE Shootout odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Sam Burns and Billy Horschel are listed as the 4-1 favorites. Before making any 2021 QBE Shootout picks, be sure to see the PGA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in November, the model was all over Viktor Hovland (18-1) winning his third PGA Tour title.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure's best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.
In addition, McClure's model was all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm's (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 QBE Shootout field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 QBE Shootout leaderboard.
The model's top 2021 QBE Shootout predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the QBE Shootout 2021: The Max Homa/Kevin Kisner team, one of the favorites at 7-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10 of this 12-team field. Neither golfer was in the field last year. Kisner, however, played in 2018 and he struggled mightily as he was teamed up with Cameron Champ.
That duo finished last that year, a whopping 16 shots off the lead. Homa won the Fortinet Championship earlier this season, but he's been in bad form since that point, finishing T35 or worse in his next three events. That includes a missed cut at the RSM Classic in November. Kisner has struggled this season, missing the cut in two of his three events thus far. The model says they're not a strong value at 7-1, so this is a team to avoid in 2021 QBE Shootout bets.
Another surprise: The Corey Conners/Graeme McDowell team, an 11-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. They have a better chance to win than the odds imply, making them one of the PGA sleeper picks to consider this week. This is an intriguing pairing of a dynamic young talent and a veteran who knows who to win and they should compliment each other quite nicely.
Conners is a 29-year-old Canadian who became the first player to win a PGA Tour event as a Monday qualifier in nine years at the 2019 Valero Texas Open. Now he's one of the top 40 players (37) in the Official World Golf Ranking. Meanwhile, McDowell was the 2010 U.S. Open champion and is a 16-time worldwide winners who now ranks 308th in the world after ranking as high as fourth at his peak. Conners has been top 20 in strokes gained off the tee since 2018 on the PGA Tour and McDowell has consistently been one of the top 20 putters on tour by strokes gained throughout his career.
How to make 2021 QBE Shootout picks
The model is also targeting two other teams with odds of 11-1 or higher who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the QBE Shootout 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 QBE Shootout leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.
2021 QBE Shootout odds
Sam Burns/Billy Horschel 4-1
Jason Kokrak/Kevin Na 11-2
Harris English/Matt Kuchar 13-2
Max Homa/Kevin Kisner 7-1
Jason Day/Marc Leishman 8-1
Corey Conners/Graeme McDowell 11-1
Sean O'Hair/Will Zalatoris 12-1
Matt Jones/Ryan Palmer 12-1
Ian Poulter/Charles Howell III 12-1
Brian Harman/Hudson Swafford 12-1
K.H. Lee/Brandt Snedeker 16-1
Bubba Waton/Lexi Thompson 33-1