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The American Express 2022 is set to begin Thursday with the first tee times at 11:40 a.m. ET, and the updated odds from Caesars Sportsbook have shifted some of the favorites heading into the tournament. Last year's champion, Si Woo Kim, opened at 50-1, but has inched closer to the top and is now 40-1. Patrick Cantlay, who was already 9-1 and second-favorite to win, has even made a tiny push forward to 8-1 in the updated 2022 American Express odds.

Cantlay has only played one event so far this season, but he showed well for himself in the recent Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this month. His steady play to a fourth-place finish has clearly inspired bettors to get behind him when he joins the field this weekend. Who are the best value and sleeper PGA picks this week? Before locking in any 2022 The American Express picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

Earlier this season at the 2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, the model was all over Viktor Hovland (18-1) winning his third PGA Tour title. 

At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure's best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.

In addition, McClure's model was all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm's (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing.  

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that The American Express 2022 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2022 American Express leaderboard.

The model's top 2022 The American Express predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at The American Express 2022: Tony Finau, a two-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barley cracks the top-10. The 32-year-old had a strong showing at this event last year, securing a top-five finish in 2021. Finau recorded a total of eight top-10 finishes last season, which included a victory at the Northern Trust. 

However, Finau has struggled early this season, finishing T-45 or worse in three of his last four official events on the PGA Tour. Finau's putting stroke is one of the main reasons for his early season struggles. In fact, he enters this week's event ranked 222nd in strokes gained: putting (-1.135), 115th in overall putting average (1.607) and 151st in one-putt percentage (38.10), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in The American Express 2022 field. 

Another surprise: Talor Gooch, a 33-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. With so much attention focused on the difficulty of the first tourney venue at the Stadium Course at PGA West, a resourceful player like Gooch should find success. 

This season, he's second on the tour in strokes gained around the green, at 5.54, and is currently on the fourth-longest run of sand saves, with eight in as many opportunities. Since winning the RSM Classic in November, he salvaged a 15th-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but he'll be motivated to show better than in his last tourney, when he finished 27th in the Sony Open in Hawaii.

How to make 2022 The American Express picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 30-1 or higher who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win The American Express 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 American Express leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.

2022 The American Express odds

Jon Rahm +600
Patrick Cantlay +800
Scottie Scheffler +1800
Tony Finau +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Corey Conners +2200
Abraham Ancer +2800
Patrick Reed +3000
Matthew Wolff +3000
Russell Henley +3300
Talor Gooch +3300
Seamus Power +3300
Will Zalatoris +4000
Si-Woo Kim +4000
Cameron Tringale +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Rickie Fowler +5000
Alex Noren +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6600
Charles Howell +7000
Carlos Ortiz +7000
Brian Harman +8000
Gary Woodland +8000
Adam Hadwin +8000
Cameron Champ +8000
Luke List +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Russell Knox +9000
Adam Long +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Michael Thompson +10000
Andrew Landry +10000
Jason Day +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Brendan Steele +10000
Brendon Todd +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Chez Reavie +10000
Harold Varner +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Patrick Rodgers +10000
Lanto Griffin +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Emiliano Grillo +12500
Patton Kizzire +12500
Hayden Buckley +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Aaron Rai +12500
Henrik Norlander +12500
Doug Ghim +12500
Kramer Hickok +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Danny Lee +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Troy Merritt +12500
Vincent Whaley +12500
Zach Johnson +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Tom Hoge +12500
Hudson Swafford +15000
Robert Streb +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Martin Laird +15000
John Huh +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Chad Ramey +15000
Brandt Snedeker +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
C.T. Pan +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Adam Schenk +17500
Harry Higgs +20000
Nick Taylor +20000
J.J. Spaun +20000
Dylan Wu +20000
Greyson Sigg +20000
Nick Hardy +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Cameron Young +20000
Sahith Theegala +20000
Hank Lebioda +20000
Sepp Straka +20000