After an extended period of big-money events, the PGA Tour's Florida Swing wraps up this week with the 2023 Valspar Championship near Tampa. The battle for world No. 1, which Scottie Scheffler claimed with his Players victory, takes a back seat as many lesser-known players tee off Thursday at Innisbrook Resort. Sam Burns has won the past two years and aims to become the first golfer since 2011 to win an event three straight times. Reigning major champions Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick, as well as three-time major winner Jordan Spieth, are among the players trying to prevent him from pulling it off. The Copperhead Course, a favorite among PGA Tour players, also will challenge the likes of Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Thomas as the 10-1 favorite in its latest 2023 Valspar Championship odds. Spieth (12-1) and Burns (15-1) are right behind, followed by Fitzpatrick (18-1) and Bradley (22-1), as favorites in the Valspar Championship 2023 field. Before making any 2023 Valspar Championship picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. The expert is up almost 17 units this season, meaning a haul of nearly $1,700 for $100 bettors. He is having a profitable season in both outright picks and head-to-head matchups.

McDonald nailed the Farmers Insurance Open, backing Homa (25-1) as his top choice. The expert also just missed a massive 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. He hit another 25-1 shot at the Houston Open, taking Tony Finau to win. The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outrights, including a monster 250-1 payout on Hudson Swafford at The American Express. Anyone who follows McDonald's advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Valspar Championship field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald's PGA picks and analysis.  

Top 2023 Valspar Championship expert picks

One stunning prediction from McDonald: He is fading Fitzpatrick, who is among the favorites and tied for fifth at Innisbrook last year. The Englishman "doesn't look like that player anymore," the expert says. Fitzpatrick has missed three cuts in his past five outings and has one top-10 finish in seven events. The 28-year-old, whose only PGA Tour victory was the 2022 U.S. Open, ranks 168th in strokes gained approach and 177th in proximity to the hole. With success on the Copperhead Course heavily reliant on the approach game, McDonald expects him to struggle this week.

On the other hand, McDonald expects a strong outing from Bradley and is backing him to win. The 36-year-old ranks 30th in both scoring average and strokes gained total and is ranked 22nd in the world. He won the Zozo Championship in October, one of four top-10 finishes this season. Bradley was the runner-up to Burns in 2021 at Innisbrook, so he knows his way around the course. He missed the cut last week, but McDonald isn't worried. "I am not too concerned," he says, "given the long-term form Bradley has displayed on both the coasts of the United States." See who he is backing at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Valspar Championship golf picks

McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship and has tabbed a couple of longshots, including one who comes in at massive odds around 150-1. This golfer is "quietly playing some great golf," the expert says, and he put in a strong putting performance at Innisbrook last year. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Valspar Championship golfers should you target or avoid? And which golfer in the Valspar Championship 2023 field could bring a monster payday of around 150-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald's top prop picks for Valspar Championship 2023, all from the expert who is up nearly $1,900 on his PGA Tour picks this season.

2023 Valspar Championship odds, field, top contenders

See McDonald's picks, best bets and predictions here.

Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
Keegan Bradley +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2400
Justin Rose +2700
Adam Hadwin +2800
Denny McCarthy +3000
Davis Riley +3100
Brian Harman +3100
Justin Suh +3700
Wyndham Clark +4000
Ben Griffin +4100
Brandon Wu +4100
Gary Woodland +4100
J.T. Poston +4200
Maverick Mcnealy +4800
Byeong Hun An +5000
Jhonattan Vegas +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Nate Lashley +5000
Victor Perez +5000
K.H. Lee +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Joel Dahmen +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Stephan Jaeger +6500
Ben Taylor +6500
Trey Mullinax +6500
Luke List +6500
Ryan Gerard +6500
Ben Martin +6500
Tyler Duncan +6500
Beau Hossler +6500
Nick Taylor +6500
Robby Shelton +6500
Joseph Bramlett +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Garrick Higgo +8000
Lee Hodges +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Ludvig Aberg +8000
S.H. Kim +9500
Charley Hoffman +9500
Eric Cole +9500
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Pierceson Coody +10000
David Lingmerth +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Kramer Hickok +11000
Erik Van Rooyen +11000
Russell Knox +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Adam Schenk +11000
Cameron Champ +11000
David Lipsky +11000
Greyson Sigg +11000
Nick Hardy +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Carson Young +12000
Chad Ramey +12000
Chesson Hadley +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Sam Stevens +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Kevin Kisner +14000
MJ Daffue +14000
Nico Echavarria +15000
Harry Higgs +16000
Michael Kim +16000
Adam Long +16000
Kevin Tway +17000
Matt Wallace +17000
Martin Laird +17000
Peter Malnati +17000
Harry Hall +17000
Carl Yuan +17000
Luke Donald +19000
Dylan Wu +19000
Patton Kizzire +19000
Matthias Schwab +21000
Vincent Norrman +21000
Ryan Moore +21000
Kevin Streelman +21000
Erik Barnes +21000
Ryan Armour +21000
Austin Cook +21000
Doug Ghim +21000
Brian Stuard +21000
Augusto Nunez +21000