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Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors dropped Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals to the Boston Celtics on Thursday evening. That result swung home-court advantage in the series, with three home games remaining for Boston. However, the Warriors have Game 2 at home on Sunday as they will look to find momentum. Boston is riding high after erasing a double-digit deficit in the second half of the series opener.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 4.5-point home favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 215 in the latest Celtics vs. Warriors odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Celtics vs. Warriors match-up, be sure to see the NBA Finals 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the 2022 NBA Finals on a stunning 88-59 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Warriors vs. Celtics picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Celtics spread: Warriors -4.5
  • Warriors vs. Celtics over-under: 215
  • Warriors vs. Celtics money line: Warriors -200, Celtics +170
  • Warriors vs. Celtics tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • GSW: The Celtics are 13-6 against the spread in playoff games
  • BOS: The Warriors are 9-8 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston's defense remains uber-elite. The Celtics led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, and Boston is allowing only 105.7 points per 100 possessions in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Boston had six blocked shots and seven steals in Game 1, and the Celtics held the Warriors to only 26 points in the paint in the opener. Opponents are shooting only 43.3 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from three-point range against Boston in the postseason, and the Celtics are allowing only 20.2 assists per contest.

The Celtics also led the league in field goal percentage allowed (43.4 percent), three-point percentage allowed (33.9 percent), two-point percentage allowed (49.7 percent), and assists allowed (21.6 per game) during the 82-game regular season marathon. Boston also created 13.8 turnovers per game in 2021-22, with Golden State having the second-worst offensive turnover rate (15.0 percent) in the league this season. 

Why the Warriors can cover

Boston led the NBA in defensive rating this season, which is certainly noteworthy, but Golden State is also elite on that end of the floor. The Warriors finished No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating (106.6) during the regular season, with top-three marks in the NBA in three-point accuracy allowed, two-point accuracy allowed, assists allowed, and field goal percentage allowed. Golden State also ranked in the top 10 of the NBA in turnover creation, steals per game, points allowed in the paint, and second-chance points allowed this season.

The Warriors are securing almost 74 percent of available defensive rebounds in the playoffs, and opponents are shooting only 44.5 percent against Golden State. In Game 1, Golden State also showcased its offensive ceiling, converting 19 three-pointers, securing more than 35 percent of available offensive rebounds, and producing 26 second-chance points. 

How to make Celtics vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 212 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.