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The Boston Celtics welcome the Milwaukee Bucks to TD Garden for a win-or-go-home showdown on Sunday. The Celtics picked up a road win on Friday in Milwaukee, evening the Eastern Conference semifinals at 3-3 and setting up a Game 7. The Bucks will aim to recapture their magic from Game 5 with a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line. 

Tipoff from TD Garden is at 3:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the five-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 205.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Celtics -5
  • Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 205.5 points 
  • Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -210, Celtics +175
  • BOS: The Celtics have covered in four of their last five games 
  • MIL: The Bucks are 1-4 against the spread in the last five games
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee is capable of explosive performances on offense, and the Bucks are playing at an elite level on defense. With Giannis Antetokounmpo at the forefront, the Bucks finished in the top five of the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season, scoring more than 1.14 points per possession. Antetokounmpo put together a profile worthy of MVP consideration, and he is averaging 35.3 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game in the series against Boston. The Bucks finished in the top five of the NBA in 3-point accuracy (36.6 percent) during the regular season, with top-10 marks in two-point shooting and free throw creation. 

On defense, the Bucks have been stellar over a multi-year sample, and Milwaukee leads the NBA playoffs in allowing only 1.02 points per possession. The Bucks are securing 80.3 percent of defensive rebounds, an uber-elite figure, and opponents are shooting only 42.1 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range against Milwaukee. The Bucks are also yielding only 18.1 free throw attempts per game, and Milwaukee's core knows what it takes to win in a pressure-packed situation.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is coming off an impressive Game 6 performance where they showcased a pretty clear plan to limit Milwaukee's supporting staff. The Bucks only got 51 points on 22-of-58 shooting outside of Antetokounmpo and by making the Greek Freak the primary ball-handler in most situations, Boston was also able to force six turnovers.

Meanwhile, the Celtics got 89 of their 108 points from Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart with the trio shooting a staggering 16-of-31 from the 3-point line. The Celtics have now covered the spread in four of the last five games in this series and if they can successfully cut off Antetokounmpo's support again, they'll be in excellent shape to cover and close out this back-and-forth series.

How to make Celtics vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Bucks vs. Celtics Game 7 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.