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The Dallas Mavericks were finally able to get a balanced scoring effort from their lineup in Game 4 on Tuesday night, leading to a 119-109 win. They will need another strong performance if they want to keep their season alive in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Luka Doncic led Dallas with 30 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4, while Dorian Finney-Smith was one of five other players who finished in double figures for the Mavericks.

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is listed as a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 215. Before making any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 89-36 his last 125 NBA money line picks, returning over $2,900 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavs vs. Warriors, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -6.5
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 215 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -320, Mavericks +250 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors tickets: See tickets at Stubhub
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 10-7 against the spread in playoff games 
  • GSW: The Warriors are 8-7 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has two-way strengths, and the Mavericks showcased their upside in Game 4. The Mavericks connected on 20 3-pointers, making 47 percent of long-range offerings on Tuesday, and also produced 30 assists and only eight turnovers in the team's first win of the series. Dallas is averaging 26.5 free throw attempts per game in the series, boosting efficiency, and are shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs. The Mavericks are also elite in ball security, ranking in the top three of the NBA in turnover avoidance during the regular season, committing only 10.4 turnovers per game in the postseason. 

The Mavericks also have an elite player in Doncic, who is at the center of the team's attack. Doncic is leading the NBA playoffs 2022 in averaging 31.9 points per game, and that includes 33.0 points per game in the series. Doncic is also averaging 9.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game in the playoffs, and the Mavericks are stingy defensively. The Mavs finished in the top eight of the NBA in defensive rating this season, leading the league in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game). Dallas can also bank on Golden State's ball security issues, with the Warriors committing a turnover on 15 percent of offensive possessions in 2021-22.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State might be coming off a loss in Game 4, but it has still won nine of its last 10 Western Conference final games. The Warriors are also undefeated at home this postseason, with their last loss coming to Phoenix on March 30 in the regular season. They played poorly for three quarters on Tuesday, yet they only lost by 10 points and were able to rest their starters late in the game.

Steph Curry, who finished 7 of 16 in Game 4, rarely has two off days in a row. The Warriors were unable to overcome poor 3-point shooting on Tuesday-coupled with Dallas getting hot from distance-but there should be a regression towards the mean from both teams in Game 5. Golden State has covered the spread in four of its last five games and is poised to close this series out.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

For Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.