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The Golden State Warriors can become the fifth franchise in NBA history to record 200 playoff wins with a victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night. More importantly, the Warriors can take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Western Conference finals of the 2022 NBA playoffs. They dominated Game 1, rolling to a 112-87 win after taking an early lead. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is out for Dallas, with Andre Iguodala (back), Gary Payton II (elbow) and James Wiseman (knee) ruled out for Golden State.

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is listed at -6 in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 213.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks or NBA playoff predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 87-34 his last 121 NBA money line picks, returning over $3,100 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavs vs. Warriors, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA playoff odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -6
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors over-under: 213.5 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -260, Mavericks +210 
  • Mavericks vs. Warriors tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-5 against the spread in playoff games 
  • GSW: The Warriors are 6-6 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has enjoyed two-way success in the playoffs. Led by Luka Doncic and an effective small-ball approach, the Mavericks have flummoxed the opposition, and Dallas is shooting 37.2 percent from 3-point range. The Mavericks also effectively avoid mistakes, committing only 10.5 turnovers per game. Opponents are scoring only 11.7 points per game off turnovers as a result, and Golden State has a weakness on the defensive glass with only a 71.0 percent defensive rebound rate. Doncic is a unique talent who can create mismatch advantages, and he is averaging 30.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. 

On defense, the Mavericks are holding opponents to only 1.02 points per possession in the last three games. Dallas is allowing only 33.9 percent 3-point shooting in the playoffs, and opponents are making less than 10 triples per game against the Mavericks. The Mavericks are also elite in transition defense, yielding a playoff-best 8.1 fast break points per game.

Why the Warriors can cover

It is always tough to find value betting on a team like Golden State, especially in a game following the performance that the Warriors put together on Wednesday. This line has been adjusted by more than a point, giving bettors an excellent opportunity to back the road underdogs. Dallas has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games overall and is 11-4 against-the-spread in its last 15 games against Golden State.

Doncic scored a postseason-low 20 points in Game 1, so he should bounce back on Friday night. The Mavericks have had several days to recover and get acclimated to a new city, which will put them in a good position for this contest. Golden State has only covered the spread twice in its last eight home games against Dallas, and now bettors who back the Warriors will have to deal with an inflated spread. 

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

For Game 2 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.