Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look to continue a magical playoff run on Wednesday. The Heat won Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena on Sunday evening, executing a brilliant second half comeback. That result knotted the best-of-seven series at 1-1 against the Denver Nuggets. The series now shifts to Kaseya Center in Miami for Game 3, with the Heat in a strong position with home-court advantage.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as the 3.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -3.5
- Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 213 points
- Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -160, Heat +135
- DEN: The Nuggets are 23-25 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 21-28-2 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets have two-way strengths, even as Denver is reeling following a late collapse in Game 2. Denver is allowing only 1.12 points per possession in the playoffs, a strong overall figure, and the Nuggets are securing 76.4% of available defensive rebounds in postseason games. The Nuggets are also giving up only 10.1 second-chance points per game, and Denver's offense is uber-elite. Denver is leading all playoff teams with a 119.5 offensive rating in the playoffs, and the Nuggets scored 1.24 points per possession in Game 2.
Denver converted 52% of field goal attempts on Sunday, and the Nuggets have the best true shooting mark (59.7%) in the playoffs. Denver is shooting 49.3% from the field, 38.2% from beyond the arc, and 81.7% from the free throw line during the postseason run, and no team is averaging fewer turnovers (11.5 per game) than the Nuggets. The Nuggets also lead the league with 51.1 points in the paint per game, and Denver puts consistent pressure on opponents from every tier of the floor. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's offensive output was the central key of Game 2. The Heat scored 1.29 points per possession on the way to a road victory, with Miami shooting 17-of-35 from 3-point range and committing only 11 turnovers with 28 assists. Miami was incredibly resilient, erasing a double-digit deficit, and the Heat have now won 10 games as a betting underdog in this postseason. In the 2023 NBA playoffs,
Miami is shooting 39.2% from 3-point range and averaging twice as many assists (24.1 per game) as turnovers (12.1 per game). That leads to a 115.9 offensive rating, with Jimmy Butler averaging 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. On the other end, Miami is giving up only 1.12 points per possession and holding opponents to only 32.6% shooting from 3-point range. That 3-point variance has fueled Miami's overall success, but the Heat are exceptionally well-coached and adept at creating havoc. See which team to pick here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.