Draft week is finally here, so here's a final projection for the first round, which will occur Thursday, April 27. While the running back position has been devalued over the years as the NFL becomes more and more of a passing league each season, Texas rusher Bijan Robinson -- one of the draft's unanimously-graded first-round prospects -- soars up the draft board to become the first top 10 selection at his position since 2018, all thanks to a head coach who once transformed Derrick Henry's career.
The Green Bay Packers, now the owners of the 13th overall pick after trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets on Monday, draft a position in Round 1 they have neglected for 20 consecutive drafts. Plus, the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills both trade up to bolster their offenses. However, only the Bills will see the prospect they choose start for them in 2023.
Keep reading to see all the first-round selections, and remember: There are only 31 picks in this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Young will become the first Alabama player selected No. 1 overall in the Common Draft Era (since 1967) and the second quarterback listed under 6-foot selected in the first round in the Common Draft Era (Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, first overall in 2019). Young's game is well worth the risk of taking someone with his build. General manager Scott Fitterer talked about a hypothetical nutrition plan as well as a strength and conditioning plan for a quarterback with Young's frame. This is the guy Carolina wants.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
C.J. Stroud has the potential to end up being this draft's best quarterback when it's all said and done given his physical tools and his polish coming out of college. There's been plenty of smoke around the Texans taking Will Anderson Jr., but in the end, Houston decides it doesn't want to play against Stroud twice a year in the AFC South should he drop to the Indianapolis Colts at four.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
During his three college football seasons from 2020-2022, Anderson Jr. totaled 207 quarterback pressures, 71 quarterback hits, 58.5 tackles for loss, and 34.5 sacks. Do you know what all of those stats have in common? They all rank as the most in the nation since the 2020 season. Anderson is one of the best edge-rushing prospects in the past five years, and he gives new Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon his newest top pass-rusher. The Cardinals opt to take the draft's top defensive player and eschew trade offers from other teams.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Richardson probably has the best athletic gifts of any quarterback in this draft class, but he's unrefined as a passer, as his 55% career completion percentage in the college would indicate. That mark would give him the fourth-lowest collegiate completion percentage of any first-round QB taken in the 21st century. Richardson can learn the ropes from Gardner Minshew, a quarterback who already has a year in new head coach Shane Steichen's system after spending the last season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
The off-field legal issues are known. As a player on the gridiron, Carter's production makes him the best defensive player on Georgia's back-to-back national title teams that were loaded with NFL talent, leading the way with 66 pressures and 15.5 tackles for loss the last two seasons. Watching him in person against TCU in the College Football Playoff National Championship game, it was mind-blowing to see his fluidity as he smoothly moved Horned Frogs offensive linemen out of the way with ease.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
Witherspoon possesses fantastic field vision, anticipating throws and jumping passing lanes by reading a quarterback's movements. He is extremely agile in coverage downfield with plenty of speed to keep up on vertical routes. Witherspoon plays with an attitude and plenty of energy as a willing, physical tackler, not something that can be said of all cornerbacks. He plays with the kind of attitude a Dan Campbell defender needs to bring to the table.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
One of the many things that impresses me about Wilson is how he can be just as willing and disruptive of a defender against the run as he is when chasing a quarterback dropping back to pass. Wilson never gives up on a play, and with his 6-foot-6 frame, he could continue to grow and become an even more physically imposing defensive force. Wilson would be a nice complement across from Maxx Crosby.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Bijan Robinson led the NCAA with 113 tackles avoided in 2022, the most by an FBS player in the last five seasons. He's an every-down back who can be a true weapon as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. He's one of the best prospects in this draft, regardless of position, which leads to him becoming the first RB drafted in the top 10 since Saquon Barkley went second overall in the 2018 raft. Arthur Smith built a successful ground-and-pound offense around Derrick Henry in Tennessee that yielded an AFC Championship Game appearance in 2019. Atlanta makes this pick to ease Desmond Ridder into the role of NFL starting QB the same way it did with Matt Ryan by signing Michael Turner back in 2008.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Justin Fields got sacked 55 times in 2022, tied for the most along with Russell Wilson. What a better way to fix the issue than by drafting Skoronski, Pro Football Focus' highest-graded pass blocker (93.0) in all of college football in 2022?
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Eagles are a smart team, drafting players at positions with established veterans, so they don't need to scramble as those players age. Van Ness can line up on the edge or move inside and line up across from interior offensive linemen. This pick provides long-term insurance for the 32-year-old Fletcher Cox and/or the 35-year-old Brandon Graham.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Here's a plug-and-play starter along one of the more porous offensive lines from the 2022 season. Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs got rocked while taking snaps for Tennessee, so the Titans address this need with an eye toward the 2024 NFL Draft for their quarterback position.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
When healthy, Smith has some of the best explosion off the line of scrimmage of any edge rusher in this draft class. His quickness allows him to get underneath blockers quickly thanks to his ability to change directions in the blink of an eye. He's slightly undersized, but he can make a significant impact getting after the quarterback when utilized correctly.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Empowering your young quarterbacks with weapons is the way to go. It's what the Packers did in the early Aaron Rodgers years, surrounding him with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and James Jones at receiver. Smith-Njigba is one of the most polished route-runners in this draft and has solid athleticism. The Packers pair Smith-Njigba with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, giving Jordan Love a wide receiver trio he can grow alongside. Their historic streak of not selecting offensive skill positions players (an RB, WR, or TE) 20 drafts in a row ends in 2023.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Christian Gonzalez has tremendous size and speed for the cornerback position at 6-foot-1, 197 pounds while possessing a 4.38 40-yard dash, 41.5-inch vertical jump and 11-foot-1 broad jump. Bill Belichick can't resist pulling the trigger on upgrading his defense here.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
The Jets need better protection from the offensive line, especially since a soon-to-be 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers is going to be their quarterback in 2023. Gang Green allowed their quarterbacks to be pressured on 35.9% of their dropbacks in 2022, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. With Mekhi Becton's future unclear, here's one of the anchors of the back-to-back national champion's offensive line who can either fill his void or serve as the other tackle opposite him.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Murphy is one of the youngest prospects in the draft, turning 21 in January. He's got all the physical gifts required to be a dominant defensive player down the road. Ron Rivera bangs the table for Murphy to either be Chase Young's pass-rush partner or replacement, depending on how he looks post-ACL tear.
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Mock Trade from
Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1 - Pick 17
The Minnesota Vikings halt Will Levis' slide down the draft board by trading their 23rd overall pick, their 87th overall pick (third round), and their 2024 first-round selection. The Vikings put a succession plan in place for Kirk Cousins, a free agent next offseason, after seeing his inability to get past the New York Giants at home in Round 1 of the playoffs this past season. Levis gets to sit and learn the ropes from Cousins for a year before taking over as the Vikings' new starting quarterback in 2024.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey has plenty of measurables similar to Aaron Donald, the Pitt alum whose NFL Combine 40-yard dash record for defensive tackles was broken by Kancey. Kancey isn't Donald, no one in the NFL today is, but his skill set could help take the Lions' pass rush to another level.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
The most dominant offensive lineman at the Senior Bowl by all accounts was O'Cyrus Torrence. He'll be a Day One starter for the Buccaneers, blocking for whomever wins the starting QB job between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Tom Brady was running for his life behind this line a year ago, so Tampa Bay addresses the issue here.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Jordan Addison is one of the best receivers in the draft, showcasing his ability as a deep-ball receiver in 2021 at Pitt -- winning the Biletnikoff Award -- as well as his ability to dominate on intermediate and underneath routes in 2022 at USC. This pick gives Geno Smith three strong targets in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and now Addison. It's also a pick that Seattle can use as Lockett's down-the-road replacement. He turns 31 in September.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Empowering your young quarterback with weapons is the way to go. Keenan Allen will be 31 at the start of the next season and missed seven games with an injury. Flowers is one of the best pure route-runners in this draft, and he will give Justin Herbert two longer-term wide receiver options along with Mike Williams.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 - Pick 22
The Buffalo Bills put out the word that they were looking to move up to add to their offense and lessen the burden on Josh Allen's shoulders. Here they do so and add one of the most athletically-gifted receivers in TCU's Quentin Johnston. A beast with the ball in his hands after the catch, Johnston could serve as a huge underneath target for Allen while Gabe Davis continues to go deep and Stefon Diggs remains the team's WR1. This trio of pass-catchers would provide Allen more opportunities to gain yards through the air, lessening the need for him to take off and run, which usually leads to him absorbing big hits. Buffalo sends its 27th overall pick, its 91st overall pick (third round), and its 2024 first-round pick to Baltimore to secure Johnston's services.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 23
Porter Jr., the son of retired four-time Pro Bowl linebacker Joey Porter (a former Steeler), has high-end physical traits for a cornerback, standing at 6-foot-2 while weighing 194 pounds. That type of size and strength will allow him to physically match up with some of the NFL's best wide receivers starting in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season since he takes advantage of his frame well in press man coverage. Pittsburgh keeps it in the family with this pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Why pay up for Evan Engram when you can draft the new Evan Engram if you're the Jacksonville Jaguars? Kincaid is arguably the most polished route-runner of all the tight ends in this draft, regularly lining up in the slot. He can also make people miss after the catch. Pairing him with Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones gives Trevor Lawrence a solid arsenal of pass-catchers.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
A consensus All-American for the national runner-up TCU Horned Frogs, the Giants look to shore up the offensive line tasked with keeping new, big-money quarterback Daniel Jones upright (four years, $160 million) as well as making Saquon Barkley's franchise tag worth the spend. Avila didn't allow a single sack all of last season, and he has the versatility to play guard, center, or even right tackle if necessary.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
The Giants break the Cowboys' heart by selecting Avila, a local player who could've filled a need for them at guard. Instead, Jerry Jones settles for the most well-rounded tight end in the draft in Mayer. His all-around skillset as a blocker and pass-catcher gives them a Dalton Schultz replacement who will do more in the run game.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1 - Pick 27
Deonte Banks crushed it at the combine with a 4.35-second 40-yard dash, 42-inch vertical and 11-foot-4 broad jump while standing at 6 feet, 197 pounds. He's great in press man coverage, and he has the ability to fill the role left behind by Marcus Peters in the Ravens secondary.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
The Bengals need a new right tackle after Jonah Williams protested the move to that spot with Orlando Brown coming over in free agency as Joe Burrow's new blindside protector. It also doesn't hurt that Wright stood his ground against Will Anderson Jr. in Tennessee's victory over Alabama this past season. This selection allows Cincinnati to flip Williams for picks, removing an awkward locker room situation and improving the depth of its roster.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Pairing Bresee on the interior with Cameron Jordan and Khalen Saunders gives the Saints a strong front for their quest to get back to the top of the NFC South.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
The Eagles lost a huge piece of their defense when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson left for the Detroit Lions. Philly fills the void with the draft's top safety prospect. Branch is great when blitzing with fantastic anticipation coming off the line of scrimmage. He's fundamentally sound, and he doesn't get caught out of position very often when in coverage. He's exactly what teams look for in a safety.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
White is a pick based off of what he could be, not what he is. At 6-foot-5, 285 pounds with 34-inch arms (NFL Combine measurements), his length allows him to be disruptive by being able to cover a lot of ground quickly, resulting in tackles for loss. However, his overall technique getting out of a stance and his lack of nuance with his pass-rush moves make him more of a project than others. But if he puts it all together, White could be a force. That's exactly the kind of pick the Super Bowl champion Chiefs are in a comfortable position to make.
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