I went 3-2 on my top five ATS picks last week, but ended up on the wrong side of the legend of Joshua Dobbs. I felt good laying points with Taylor Heinicke and the Atlanta Falcons while fading Jaren Hall. But, the rookie was injured in the first quarter, and in came Dobbs to take everyone's money by scoring three touchdowns despite not knowing the Minnesota Vikings playbook or players. Absurd.
This week, the San Francisco 49ers look to snap their three-game losing streak against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Detroit Lions take their talents to L.A. and the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 300 points over the New York Giants. Here's a look at what I'm thinking in Week 10. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 19-24-2
Overall ATS record: 57-75-4
Straight up record: 76-60
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers are on a three-game losing streak, but that skid comes to an end this week. Sure, the Jaguars have won five straight contests, but over who? The Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints, the Indianapolis Colts, the jet-lagged, injured Buffalo Bills in London and the Falcons. Don't get it twisted, I think the Jaguars are a good team, but I'm betting on the 49ers to rebound with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams potentially returning to the lineup.
Brock Purdy has struggled during this losing streak, having thrown three touchdowns compared to five interceptions, but Jacksonville has the No. 23 overall defense and the third-worst passing defense. Give me the 49ers.
The pick: 49ers -3
Projected score: 49ers 27-21
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
NFL teams wearing throwback uniforms have won five consecutive games (the Giants and Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7, and the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans in Week 8). This week, the Steelers will wear throwbacks when they play host to the Packers.
Don't expect many points in this game, but that fits what the Steelers want to do anyway. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith could feast on this offensive line.
The pick: Steelers -3
Projected score: Steelers 20-14
Detroit Lions (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I know Justin Herbert's injury is on his non-throwing hand, but I feel as though he hasn't looked like himself over the past few weeks. He threw for a career-low 136 yards vs. the New York Jets Monday night, and is averaging a career-low 253.3 passing yards per game this season. Defensively, the Chargers allow the third-most yards per game (375.8), and statistically have the worst pass defense in the league (286.0 yards allowed per game).
I wish I got this line when it was DET -1.5, but I will still take it at DET -3. I have questions about the Lions as legitimate contenders, but Jahmyr Gibbs finally had his breakout game last time out, David Montgomery appears ready to return to the lineup, Sam LaPorta is the best rookie tight end we've seen in some time and Aidan Hutchinson is having quite a season on the defensive side.
Detroit is coming off its bye while L.A. is on a short week. The Lions are 6-2 against the spread this season, which is tied for the best ATS mark. In fact, Dan Campbell is 29-13 ATS since taking over as lead man of the Lions, which is the best ATS record in the NFL over that span.
The pick: Lions -3
Projected score: Lions 28-20
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Yes, the Seahawks got run off the field in Baltimore last week, but I'm not selling all my Seattle stock yet. The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss, and are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games by my count. Geno Smith and Co. should beat a wildly inconsistent Commanders team. Washington did score a win over the lowly New England Patriots last week, but I don't know how impressed we should be by that. Plus, Ron Rivera's team hasn't recorded back-to-back wins since Weeks 1-2.
The Seahawks were crushed by arguably the best defense in the NFL in Week 9, but the Commanders defense ranks bottom four in points allowed per game, 25-plus-yard plays and yards per play.
The pick: Seahawks -6
Projected score: Seahawks 27-17
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Am I insane? Yeah, probably. It's no secret my picks have been trash this year, but the Cowboys are 5-3 ATS, and undefeated ATS at home this season. Yes, 16.5 points is the largest spread of the entire season, but the Cowboys defeated the Giants earlier this year by 40 points, the Jets by 20 points, the Patriots by 35 points and the Los Angeles Rams by 23 points just a couple weeks ago.
New York just lost to a bad Las Vegas Raiders team on the road by 24 points. Now, Tommy DeVito has to lead this team into battle against Micah Parsons and a squad that has won 11 straight home games while averaging 34.4 points in those contests?
The pick: Cowboys -16.5
Projected score: Cowboys 35-10
Other Week 10 picks
Bears (-3.5) 24-20 over Panthers (Thursday)
Colts (-1.5) 17-14 over Patriots
Ravens 24-20 over Browns (+6)
Bengals (-7) 26-18 over Texans
Saints (-2.5) 23-20 over Vikings
Titans (+1) 27-24 over Buccaneers
Cardinals (+1.5) 21-17 over Falcons
Jets (PICK) 16-13 over Raiders
Bills (-7.5) 28-20 over Broncos (Monday)
