Well, Week 2 was one of the weirdest weeks in the NFL I can remember. And for a minute, it felt like I had it all figured out. I was the only CBS Sports expert to have the Vikings covering against the Eagles on Thursday night, and, I'm not going to lie, I was feeling myself a little bit. But the gambling gods sure do know how to humble a guy.
It was a forgetful slate with a lackluster 5-10-1 ATS mark on the weekend. The Giants did us no favors as one of my locks of the week, allowing the Cardinals to build up a 20-point, first-half lead before mounting a comeback and failing to cover. We also could've done without the Packers melting down against the Falcons, and, of course, Sean McVay handing us an L in the final seconds with a needless field goal against the 49ers.
It happens. As much as we'd like it to be the case, you can't profit every week. What we'll do now is dig in and hope to strongly bounce back in Week 3. Let's go to work.
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 4-6
ATS: 14-17-1
ML: 19-13
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I know it's only Week 3, but it does feel like New England's season hangs in the balance a bit. They are 0-2 for the first time since 2001 and if they have any shot of playing meaningful games in December, they'll need to get in the win column. Fortunately for them, they get a Jets team that doesn't have Aaron Rodgers under center, but Zach Wilson. Bill Belichick has had his way with the young QB throughout his career, owning a perfect 4-0 record against him, and has forced Wilson into seven interceptions with a 50.6 passer rating. New York's defense will be a challenge for Mac Jones and the Patriots offense, but they are capable of putting up points (and could even get some from the defense). New England also has a 5-0 ATS record in their last five meetings against the Jets.
Projected score: Patriots 24, Jets 17
The pick: Patriots -2.5
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Anthony Richardson is currently in the concussion protocol as I write this, but I'd like the Ravens no matter if it's Richardson or Gardner Minshew under center in this spot. Lamar Jackson looks like he's in midseason form with his stellar performance last week against the Bengals and welcomed back star tight end Mark Andrews with a touchdown throw. Rookie Zay Flowers also looks like he's going to be a legitimate difference-maker for this offense right out of the gate. With everyone else in the division sort of meandering, now is the time for the Ravens to build up a bit of a cushion. I think Indy is simply going to have trouble keeping pace with what should be a good day for the Ravens offense after Indy was just sliced up by rookie C.J. Stroud for 384 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore gets its first 3-0 start to a season since 2016.
Projected score: Ravens 30, Colts 20
The pick: Ravens -7.5
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I'll admit, this line is a bit fishy with Miami sitting as less than a touchdown favorite but I'll bite. The Dolphins are establishing themselves as a legitimate playoff team in the early goings and have arguably been the most impressive team in the AFC thus far. Last week's win over New England wasn't flashy, but I did think it showed that they can win in multiple ways and not simply rely on a deep attack headlined by Tyreek Hill. Meanwhile, I think this could be one of the first times this season that Sean Payton seriously considers putting Russell Wilson on the shelf. I don't see a world where he can keep up with this Dolphins offense, and if he starts to force things and registers a few turnovers there will be plenty of camera shots of backup Jarrett Stidham. Miami has covered in four straight games coming into Week 3, which is the longest active streak.
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Broncos 20
The pick: Dolphins -6.5
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
I think Bryce Young is going to be a solid quarterback in the NFL, but he's a bit too green at the moment so we'll pick on him a bit here. As you might expect with a rookie under center, Carolina's offense hasn't been prolific. Young's 4.2 yards per attempt is the third lowest by any quarterback through his first two games in NFL history. The Panthers are tied for the lowest-scoring offense in the league and are 28th in yards per game. That'll be a welcome sign for a Seattle defense that hasn't been overly impressive and ranks in the bottom three points allowed, total yardage and passing yards. That said, I think the tiebreaker between those two lackluster sides of the ball for those clubs is that this game will be played at Lumen Field, which has historically been one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL for the Seahawks. I was also encouraged by Geno Smith in Week 2 and expect him to look more like the 2022 version of himself this week, especially against a banged-up Panthers defense.
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Seahawks -5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
The big takeaway from Pittsburgh's win over the Browns on Monday night is that they might have the best defense in the NFL. Whenever they needed a big stop, they got it. Whenever they needed a turnover, they got one and and turned it into points. The main question for the Steelers is the offense, which couldn't get out of its own way against Cleveland. Believe it or not, they had zero (!!) offensive snaps inside the Browns' 30-yard line in Week 2 and STILL WON. That's thanks to those defensive turnovers and a 71-yard touchdown by George Pickens. While those defensive scores are not sustainable, I do think Kenny Pickett will have easier sledding against a Raiders defense that has allowed the highest completion percentage (81.7%) through two games by any team in NFL history. The Steelers are also 5-0 ATS in their last five prime-time games.
Projected score: Steelers 23, Raiders 20
The pick: Steelers +1.5
Rest of the bunch
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Giants 20
The pick: 49ers -10.5
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Projected score: Lions 28, Falcons 23
The pick: Lions -3
Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders
Projected score: Bills 30, Commanders 17
The pick: Bills -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 30, Chargers 27
The pick: Vikings PK
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Projected score: Saints 24, Packers 23
The pick: Saints +2
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Projected score: Titans 24, Browns 21
The pick: Titans +3.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 30, Texans 20
The pick: Jaguars -9.5
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Bears 17
The pick: Chiefs -13
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 16
The pick: Cowboys -12
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected score: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Eagles -5.5
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
Projected score: Rams 23, Bengals 21
The pick: Rams +2
