We are hot off the heels of a hectic Week 6 in the NFL. Both undefeated teams fell after blowing double digits leads on the road and there was nearly another major upset on Sunday night but the Bills were able to outlast the Giants at the final second. While we still have the Chargers and Cowboys on deck on Monday night to complete the Week 6 slate, it's never too early to see what Week 7 has on deck for us.
Below, we'll get our first glimpse of all the Week 7 matchups and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.
Note: Cincinnati, Dallas, Tennessee, New York Jets, Carolina, and Houston are all on the bye in Week 7.
Week 7 early odds
(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaguars -1 | 41.5 | Jaguars -112, Saints -109 | |
Bills at Patriots | Bills -8.5 | 42.5 | Bills -404, Patriots +322 |
Buccaneers -2.5 | 40 | Falcons +117, Buccaneers -138 | |
Ravens -2.5 | 44.5 | Lions +115, Ravens -137 | |
Browns -2 | 39 | Browns -129, Colts +108 | |
Raiders -3 | 40.5 | Raiders -155, Bears +131 | |
Commanders at Giants | Commanders -1.5 | 41.5 | Commanders -125, Giants +105 |
Rams -3.5 | 42.5 | Steelers +146, Rams -172 | |
Seahawks -8 | 46 | Cardinals +303, Seahawks -386 | |
Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs -5.5 | 50.5 | Chargers +201, Chiefs -246 |
Packers -1.5 | 44.5 | Packers -123, Broncos +103 | |
Eagles -2.5 | 52.5 | Dolphins +118, Eagles -140 | |
49ers -7 | 45 | 49ers -321, Vikings +254 |
Notable movement, trends
Jaguars at Saints
One of the big storylines going into this game will be the status of Trevor Lawrence, who left Sunday's win over the Colts due to a knee injury. He'll reportedly undergo tests this week and if he's unable to make the quick Thursday turnaround it'd be C.J. Beathard who'd get the start. Still, Jacksonville is a slight 1-point road favorite for this matchup in New Orleans. The Jags are 4-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans -- who lost to the Texans on Sunday -- has yet to cover at home.
Raiders at Bears
The Raiders pulled out the win over the Patriots, but it didn't come without a key injury. Jimmy Garoppolo departed this game after suffering a back injury in the second quarter and was taken to a local hospital for precautionary measures. Veteran Brian Hoyer came in for the injured Garoppolo and helped lead Las Vegas to the win. Meanwhile, the Bears are also dealing with an injured quarterback as Justin Fields reportedly suffered a dislocated thumb in his throwing hand and is set to undergo an MRI on Monday. Given the injuries to both starting quarterbacks, it's not surprising to see this total drop from 42 to 40.5.
Browns at Colts
The Browns enjoyed one of the biggest upsets of Week 6 by taking down the previously unbeaten 49ers with P.J. Walker under center. Of course, it remains to be seen if Deshaun Watson will be healthy enough to make his return for this game or if Walker will get another start following that impressive win. Even with that QB situation still in flux, Cleveland is a 2-point road favorite over Indy, who'll again be starting Gardner Minshew for the injured Anthony Richardson. The Colts fell to Jacksonville on Sunday to drop to 3-3 on the year. Indy is 1-2 ATS at home this season while the Browns were unable to cover their lone road game of the year in Week 2 against Pittsburgh. Scoring isn't expected in this contest with a total set at 39, the lowest of the Week 7 slate currently.
Bills at Patriots
Buffalo narrowly escaped a major upset at the hands of the Giants on Sunday night, fending off what would have been a game-winning touchdown by Tyrod Taylor at the goal line in the final second of regulation. The Bills have been a mediocre bet so far this season with a 3-3 ATS record, but are 8.5-point road favorites as they're set to travel to Foxborough for a division matchup against the Patriots. New England dropped to 1-5 (SU and ATS) on the season with their loss to the Raiders. Bill Belichick's team is 0-3 ATS at home this season while the Bills are 1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Commanders at Giants
Washington took down the Falcons on Sunday thanks to a three-touchdown performance by Sam Howell. That victory brought them back to .500 on the season and now they get a key NFC East matchup at MetLife Stadium against a Giants team that did show some spirit on the road by nearly upsetting the Bills. The Commanders are a narrow 1.5-point favorite over their division rival and have already covered one NFC East game this season while New York is 0-1 ATS within the division. Washington is also tied with a league-best 3-0 ATS record on the road.
Falcons at Buccaneers
Both of these teams came out on the losing end in Week 6, but are still in the thick of the NFC South race. This game could go a long way in determining how this division ultimately shakes out with the Bucs in first place at 3-2 with the Falcons and Saints right behind them at 3-3. The Bucs are a slim 2.5-point favorite and will go against Desmond Ridder, who has yet to record a road win as a starter in the NFL. Even with the total at 40, the Under could be an intriguing play with it 9-2 between these teams this season.
Lions at Ravens
Detroit continues to flex its muscles as a legit contender in the NFC but finds itself as a 2.5-point dog as they head to Baltimore the face the Ravens. The backfield for Detroit will be a storyline to follow leading into this matchup as David Montgomery left Sunday's win over Tampa Bay due to a rib injury and first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs was already ruled out for that game due to injury. It's worth noting that Baltimore is also coming back to the United States after playing Week 6 in London and is not on the bye immediately after that international game vs. Tennessee. The Lions are tied for a league-best 5-1 ATS record, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark on the road. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-1 ATS at home.
Steelers at Rams
Pittsburgh was on the bye in Week 6, so they'll have the rest advantage against a Rams team that made easy work of the Cardinals at home on Sunday. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have covered 54.8% of their games (23-19-2) when they have the rest advantage. Under Sean McVay, L.A. is 8-8-1 ATS with the rest disadvantage. On the injury front, the possible return of Diontae Johnson could help boost the Pittsburgh offense after the wideout landed on IR after suffering an injury in Week 1.
Cardinals at Seahawks
Arizona and Seattle both fell in Week 6. While the Cardinals have been a scrappy team to begin the year and are 3-3 ATS, they are an eight-point dog on the road against a Seahawks team that is 3-2 ATS on the year. Despite that .500 ATS record, the Cardinals have struggled to cover against their division foes, owning an 0-2 ATS record against the NFC West this season.
Packers at Broncos
Green Bay was on the bye in Week 6, but they won't have as lofty of a rest advantage over the Broncos after Denver played against Kansas City on Thursday night to open up the week. The Packers are a slight road favorite, which is s spot they've yet to find themselves in so far this season. Denver is 0-5-1 ATS on the year while the Packers are 3-2 ATS.
Chargers at Chiefs
The Chargers still have their Week 6 matchup on deck on Monday night and then have the tough task of gearing up for a road game against the Chiefs on a short week. Since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs are just 12-14 ATS with the rest advantage. This season, K.C. is 4-2 ATS, which includes a 2-1 ATS mark at Arrowhead Stadium. Given the talent at quarterback, this is expected to be a high-scoring game with the total set at 50.5. However, the Under is 6-4 between these two teams (excluding the Chargers matchup with Dallas).
Dolphins at Eagles
This is the highest point total of the Week 7 slate as the oddsmakers have put this number at 52.5 between the Dolphins and Eagles. The Over is 4-2 for the Dolphins this season and the Eagles -- who were upset at the hands of the Jets -- do have an ability to find the end zone at home as the Over is 2-0 at Lincoln Financial Field this season. As for the spread, the Eagles have yet to record an ATS win at home this season while the Dolphins are 2-1 ATS on the road.
49ers at Vikings
San Francisco is coming off its first loss of the season on Sunday against the Browns but is still looked at as a touchdown favorite over the Vikings in Minnesota for Week 7. As the week moves forward, it will be worth monitoring the statuses of both Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) after they both suffered injuries in Week 6. Naturally, if either one of them were to miss the Monday night game that'd likely cause some shift in the lines. The Niners are 1-2 ATS on the road this season while the Vikings are 0-3 ATS at home.
The Sportsline model has evaluated the latest NFL odds, simulated every snap for Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season, and the results are in. We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 7 NFL picks is that the Ravens (-2.5) cover against the Lions in well over 60% of simulations. Another one of its Week 7 NFL predictions: The Rams (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Steelers well over 50% of the time. The model also says the Under (42.5) hits in almost 60% of simulations. The model has also made the call on who wins and covers every other NFL game this week and has identified TWO COVETED A-RATED PICKS! You ABSOLUTELY need to see its NFL picks for every game!
