Any week where you are over .500 against the spread picking NFL games has to be considered a good week. Right?
It's two straight above .500 for me after a lull in early December, as I went 8-7-1 last week, making my season record 114-118-7. I would love to finish above .500 for the regular season, so this is a big week -- even if it's a tough one.
My best bets on the Pick Six Podcast were 2-3-1 last week, with the tie coming on the Over in the Tampa Bay-Detroit game because of two missed extra points and a missed chip-shot field goal late. That takes my season record with the best bets to 55-39-1.
Let's try and keep the winning ways going with my overall picks, but like I mentioned above, I think this is a challenging week with some teams resting players and others playing to win. Motivation can be key in a lot of these games, so deeper analysis has to be in play.
The Colts need this to have a chance to make the playoffs, but also need help. They blew a lead to the Steelers last week, but they won't blow one here. They lost to Jacksonville in the opener, but this won't be close. The Jaguars are bad. Colts big.
Pick: Colts 31, Jaguars 10
What picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? And which heavy favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up nearly $7,900 on its top-rated picks.
If the Titans win, they win the AFC South. Pretty simple. But this is a second straight road game, and the defense is awful. But the good news is the Texans defense is just as bad. Look for Derrick Henry to run his team into the postseason but Deshaun Watson will keep the Texans around.
Pick: Titans 31, Texans 27
The Bucs are playing to lock up the fifth seed -- if that's what they want. Atlanta has played tough lately and almost beat the Bucs two weeks ago. But Tampa Bay will be focused here, while the Falcons probably are thinking about time off. Atlanta is playing a second straight road game as well. Bucs big.
Pick: Buccaneers 33, Falcons 24
The winner of this game will need Washington to lose later in the day to win the NFC East. The Giants have been struggling in a big way the past few weeks, while Dallas has come alive on offense with Andy Dalton. I think it stays that way as Dalton and the Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
This game means nothing in the playoff chase. The Patriots have been awful the past two weeks, while the Jets have won two in a row. The Jets will play hard and tough here to keep the streak alive. New England has the worse offense right now. Jets take it.
Pick: Jets 23, Patriots 21
The Chiefs are locked into the top seed in the AFC, so they will likely rest players. The Chargers have come to life the past three games and would love to end on a winning streak. I think they do. Justin Herbert wins another one.
Pick: Chargers 33, Chiefs 23
This is a game featuring two teams going home, but the Lions are a total mess. They were lifeless against the Bucs, and will likely play here without Matt Stafford. The Vikings were blown out by the Saints last week, but they will bounce back in this one. Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 31, Lions 21
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Mason Rudolph will be starting for the Steelers at quarterback. Do they want the Browns in the playoffs? The Steelers still have a chance for the second seed, but they are passing on playing Ben Roethlisberger. That's a big break for Cleveland. With that as a backdrop, the Browns will win and make the playoffs.
Pick: Browns 24, Steelers 16
The Ravens are in the playoffs with a victory, and they have been playing well the past few weeks. The run game continues to power this team, which will be the case here. The Bengals won't slow down Lamar Jackson. Ravens take it.
Pick: Ravens 31, Bengals 17
The Bears might need this to get into the playoffs (they can still get in if the Cardinals lose), while the Packers need it to lock up the top seed. Green Bay is rolling right now, which will make it a major challenge for the Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers will lock up the MVP with a big-time performance in this one.
Pick: Packers 30, Bears 21
If the Bills win this, they will lock up the second seed. Josh Allen is playing great right now, but the Miami defense has been outstanding. This will be a real challenge for the Buffalo offense. The problem is Miami's offense is struggling with Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo will take advantage of that and win this one to get the second seed.
Pick: Bills 26, Dolphins 17
The Seahawks are still in the running for the top seed, so they are playing to win. The 49ers looked good last week in beating Arizona, and you know they would love to beat their rival. It will be close, but Seattle will find a way to win it late. It won't be easy.
Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
The Saints looked great in beating the Vikings last week, but the Panthers also impressed in beating Washington on the road. This Carolina team is feisty, even if it isn't playing for anything. The Saints have an outside shot at the top seed, but they will fight and scrap to get that chance with a close win here.
Pick: Saints 25, Panthers 21
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The winner is in the playoffs, while the Rams still could be with a loss. The quarterback situations are interesting. Kyler Murray is banged up, but it looks like he will go. Jared Goff is out, which means John Wolford will make his first NFL start. That will put way too much pressure on the Rams defense. Cardinals win it to get into the postseason.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 20
This is one of the games that means nothing this week. So it should be played loose and free. Look for both offenses to play well with a lot of points as the Broncos win it at home.
Pick: Broncos 31, Raiders 28
If Washington wins this game, it is the division champ. It won't be easy. Alex Smith is banged up and could be a game-time decision. That means it could be Taylor Heinicke. The Eagles have played much better on offense as of late with Jalen Hurts. The Eagles would love to spoil Washington's playoff party, and I think they will.
Pick: Eagles 24, Washington 21