The halfway point of the 2023-24 NHL season is coming up this weekend, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape now that we have a nice sample size. Most teams still have some reason to think they could reach the postseason, but some have a much better shot than others.
When it comes to playoff locks, the Winnipeg Jets are about as close to a sure thing as you can get. They are atop the NHL, and they are playing some fantastic hockey with one of the best goaltenders in the game erasing the few mistakes that do occur. It's been an impressive first 40 games in Winnipeg.
It's not quite as comfortable for most of the other 31 teams in the NHL, and there are a lot of playoff coin flips out there. The Seattle Kraken have won seven games in a row, but they are still a long way from securing a playoff spot. The Detroit Red Wings got off to a good start, but their chances have taken a major hit in recent weeks.
There is still a lot of hockey left to play, and a lot can change over the next few months, but the playoff implications will only get more significant with each passing day. Let's take a look at each team's postseason chances, according to MoneyPuck, in the newest NHL Power Rankings.
Expected goals and goals saved above average data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Biggest Movers
7
Kraken
5
Stars
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 99.5% | The Jets have been one of the NHL's biggest surprises this season, and they now sit atop the NHL. The most encouraging part is this success hasn't been driven solely by Connor Hellebuyck playing at a superhuman level. Don't get me wrong, he's been great, but Winnipeg has been smoking opponents at five-on-five. The Jets own 52.0% of the expected goals and 63.9% of the actual goals. | -- | 52-24-6 |
| 2 |  | 99.4% | Over the last few weeks, the Panthers have been scorching hot. Florida has won eight games in a row. Sam Reinhart keeps scoring at an insanely high rate. Aleksander Barkov is the clear Selke Trophy favorite. Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett are finally starting to get their offense going. The Panthers look just as strong as they did throughout their Stanley Cup Final run, and they have solidified their playoff chances. | 5 | 52-24-6 |
| 3 |  | 99.5% | If you had told me Vancouver's playoff chances would be nearly 100% in early January, I would have assumed you were a time traveler from 2010-11. Instead, the Canucks have been excellent this year. The team's top players are living up to that billing, especially Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko, and they have the Canucks at the top of the Pacific Division. Vancouver's PDO is still unsustainably high, but even if the squad does cool off at some point, there is plenty of room between them and that final playoff spot. | -- | 50-23-9 |
| 4 |  | 98.8% | Colorado isn't exactly getting top-notch goaltending this season. The duo of Alexandar Georgiev and Ivan Prosvetov have combined to allow 8.49 goals above average, but that hasn't mattered because Nathan MacKinnon is playing as well as he has ever played. MacKinnon has 12 goals and 18 assists in his last 15 games, and his 66 total points are second only to Nikita Kucherov. Naturally, this means the Avs are a virtual playoff lock. | 1 | 50-25-7 |
| 5 |  | 95.5% | For the second season in a row, the Bruins are answering quite a few preseason questions. Boston has continued to roll even without Patrice Begeron at the heart of the locker room, and David Pastrnak's Hart-caliber performance has a lot to do with that. He's been excellent, along with the goaltending tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. The Bruins' five-on-five metrics haven't been as strong as last season, but they are still very much in the Stanley Cup mix. | 1 | 47-20-15 |
| 6 |  | 95.5% | For the second season in a row, the Bruins are answering quite a few preseason questions. Boston has continued to roll even without Patrice Begeron at the heart of the locker room, and David Pastrnak's Hart-caliber performance has a lot to do with that. He's been excellent, along with the goaltending tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. The Bruins' five-on-five metrics haven't been as strong as last season, but they are still very much in the Stanley Cup mix. | 2 | 55-23-4 |
| 7 |  | 97.7% | The Stars have struggled a bit in Jake Oettinger's absence, but they are still playing like one of the league's best teams. For example, Dallas is just 3-3-1 in its last seven games, but they own a 65.4% expected goals share at five-on-five over that stretch. That said, things won't get any easier for the Stars after star defenseman Miro Heiskanen suffered an injury that will force him to miss significant time. Dallas just needs to get him healthy in time for the playoffs because the postseason looks like an incredibly safe bet here. | 5 | 52-21-9 |
| 8 |  | 85.9% | Given where the Oilers were just a month ago, it's pretty astounding that their playoff chances are now climbing toward 90%. That is a testament to the job Kris Knoblauch has done since taking over as head coach, but it's also a testament to the fact that Connor McDavid is the very best player in the world. He has been terrific, and his chemistry with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman has been lethal. Not only are the Oilers a real playoff threat, but they are a huge Cup threat too. | 1 | 49-27-6 |
| 9 |  | 96.7% | It's safe to say that the Hurricanes have found their groove after a lackluster start, and their playoff chances are creeping up toward 100%. It's probably no coincidence the team's recent run of form aligns with Andrei Svechnikov getting his scoring touch back. Svechnikov battled injury earlier in the season, and he scored just one goal in his first 16 games. In his last nine games, Svechnikov has found the back of the net eight times. | 2 | 52-23-7 |
| 10 |  | 91.4% | The Leafs aren't quite a lock to make the playoffs, according to these chances, but they are very close to becoming one. Of course, just reaching the postseason isn't the goal for this Toronto team anyway. The Maple Leafs got out of the first round last year, but they got all of one win after that. It's time to make hay while the sun shines, and a leveled-up William Nylander with a fresh contract in his hand should help in Toronto's Cup quest. | 4 | 46-26-10 |
| 11 |  | 89.0% | I would have expected the Golden Knights to be closer to 100%, but they haven't exactly looked like world beaters over the last month. In that time, they are 6-7-0 with a minus-5 goal differential and very pedestrian five-on-five metrics. The goaltending has been pretty poor in Adin Hill's absence, and Chandler Stephenson is still going through it. Once Hill gets healthy, I'd expect Vegas to get back on track, though. This is just a bump in the road. | 3 | 45-29-8 |
| 12 |  | 93.1% | The Golden Knights aren't the only Pacific Division team dealing with issues right now. The Kings have been in rough shape lately too, but their problems have been in the goal-scoring department. Quinton Byfield hasn't found the back of the net since Dec. 23, and Pierre-Luc Dubois hasn't scored since Dec. 27. Despite some of the scoring deficiencies, the Kings are still in great shape to make the playoffs and go on a run. | 2 | 44-27-11 |
| 13 |  | 86.3% | New Jersey has a pretty good lineup on its injured list these days. Jack Hughes. Timo Meier. Ondrej Palat. Dougie Hamilton. It's a who's who of, "We can't afford to lose this guy for very long." Injuries have plagued the Devils all season, which explains their relatively low playoff chances, at least when compared to preseason expectations. New Jersey needs to get healthy and stay healthy, otherwise it will be in a dogfight for an Eastern Conference playoff spot. | -- | 38-39-5 |
| 14 |  | 49.1% | The Kraken have now won seven straight games, and this streak isn't just attributable to improved goaltending from Joey Daccord. He has been great, but Seattle has also started to improve some of its underlying metrics. Considering the Kraken looked dead in the water a few weeks ago, this is an impressive turnaround, and they are very much in the Western Conference playoff race. | 7 | 34-35-13 |
| 15 |  | 82.2% | I was surprised to see the Penguins' chances so high given their inconsistency throughout the season and the fact that the race for the Eastern Conference wild card spots will likely be a slugfest the rest of the way. Having said that, it's hard not to see the Penguins as one of the favorites to land a playoff spot out of that group. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still playing at a high level, and there aren't many middle-of-the-pack teams that can compete with a duo like that. | 5 | 38-32-12 |
| 16 |  | 24.4% | Ever since their six-game winning streak last month, the Predators have been stuck in neutral, and it has hurt their playoff chances with teams surging behind them. Although the team in front of him has been inconsistent, Juuse Saros has turned in some uncharacteristic duds of late. He has now allowed 3.71 goals above average this season, which puts him at 61st among all goaltenders. | 1 | 47-30-5 |
| 17 |  | 37.3% | The Flyers are still very much alive in the playoff race, but the chances of Cutter Gauthier playing for the team that drafted him No. 5 overall in 2022 are 0.0%. In all seriousness, the Flyers did well to get Jamie Drysdale and a second-round pick for a prospect who didn't want to sign with the organization. Does that affect Philly's playoff chances? Not really, but it needed to be addressed. | 5 | 38-33-11 |
| 18 |  | 21.5% | The Coyotes have been a great story, and their win over the Bruins on Tuesday was as fun as they come, but these chances show the uphill battle they have in order to reach the postseason. Arizona has a young roster, and it is in a very crowded Western Conference field. The Yotes' best bet will be if Connor Ingram remains a Vezina Trophy candidate the rest of the way. | 2 | 36-41-5 |
| 19 |  | 17.3% | The Islanders are a classic case of a team kept afloat in the standings thanks to the loser point. The Isles have won 18 games and lost 22, but they still occupy the first wild card spot. If they had gotten some unlucky bounces in a handful of those games, I could buy them as a playoff contender. However, a 48.5% expected goals share at five-on-five doesn't exactly scream juggernaut. | 2 | 39-27-16 |
| 20 |  | 42.3% | With a dramatic comeback win over the Kings on Tuesday, the Lightning only helped their playoff chances, but they are still far from being a sure thing. Tampa has just been more average than we're used to seeing this season. The Bolts have yet to really move into juggernaut mode, and that may not be coming at all. For now, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos are doing enough to keep them in the playoff picture. | 1 | 45-29-8 |
| 21 |  | 25.0% | If I had done this exercise a month or two ago, the Red Wings' chances would be much higher. Even after adding Patrick Kane to the lineup, Detroit has continued to struggle despite outshooting some poor expected goals numbers on offense. The Wings have some serious deficiencies on defense, and the goaltending certainly isn't helping that situation. It would take an unexpected improvement in that area to really improve their chances. | 5 | 41-32-9 |
| 22 |  | 5.4% | The Blues are still well within reach of a wild card spot, but their chances are extremely low. That's probably because they don't exactly profile as a playoff team, despite their record. Their 45.6% five-on-five expected goals share is one of the worst in the NHL, and their minus-15 goal differential doesn't exactly scare anyone either. The Blues seem to be hanging by a thread for now. | 2 | 43-33-6 |
| 23 |  | 20.2% | The Wild have been on quite a roller coaster in recent weeks. After a putrid start that put them behind the eight ball, they fired Dean Evason. After hiring John Hynes, Minnesota got hotter than the surface of the Sun. Now, the injury bug has struck, and the Wild are slumping again. The lack of healthy bodies and workable salary cap space have created a steep hill for this team to climb. | 5 | 39-34-9 |
| 24 |  | 15.9% | Calgary just can't seem to get out of its own way, and the team now sits at .500 exactly halfway through the season. This bleak playoff outlook probably means the Flames will have to start hitting the trade market more aggressively as they try to find suitors for some of their pending unrestricted free agents. | 2 | 38-39-5 |
| 25 |  | 12.8% | You have to give the Capitals credit for hanging around in the East, but they just don't look like a team that is really going to be in the mix in late March or early April. The underlying numbers suggest they're closer to the Blues and Blue Jackets than the Devils and Lightning. Spencer Carbery has done what he can to keep this team competitive, but the cracks are starting to show. | 2 | 40-31-11 |
| 26 |  | 9.4% | This is an all too familiar position for Sabres fans. The team is essentially out of the playoff race, and the All-Star game is still about a month away. This season has been something of a disappointment for Buffalo, even if expectations were a little too high to begin with. At least the Bills are starting to peak at the right time and will be hosting a home playoff game this weekend. | 2 | 39-37-6 |
| 27 |  | 4.4% | This might seem low for a squad that is six points out of a playoff spot with points in hand, but the Canadiens' minus-25 goal differential suggests otherwise. Montreal is still very much a rebuilding team, even if it does already have some solid young pieces in place. The Habs just need another year of really stocking the prospect pool (and some more cap space) before we can really think about them taking the next step. | 2 | 30-36-16 |
| 28 |  | 0.1% | So you're telling me there's a chance? What would have to happen for this 0.1% to come to fruition? Eight of the 16 Eastern Conference teams suddenly get transported to another dimension like something out of "The Leftovers?" We can probably just drop that tenth of a percent. | 1 | 27-43-12 |
| 29 |  | 1.5% | As someone whose preseason bold prediction was that the Senators would win a playoff round, I am really squinting to see how this almost non-existent chance becomes a reality. Hey, maybe Tim Stützle breaks out of his scoring slump, and one of Joonas Korpisalo or Anton Forsberg gets hot for 10 or 20 or 30 games. It could happen. | 2 | 37-41-4 |
| 30 |  | 0.0% | That early-season winning streak was a long time ago. The Ducks have been pretty miserable lately, and they are completely out of the playoff race. Now, the focus just needs to shift to making sure the young prospects improve throughout the rest of the season so that the team is ready to take a big step forward in 2024-25. | -- | 27-50-5 |
| 31 |  | 0.0% | The Blackhawks just lost Connor Bedard for an indefinite period due to a jaw fracture. That also means the Blackhawks just lost the only reason for anyone to watch them. The good news there is that Chicago's playoff chances are nil, so you won't be missing anything by flipping to literally any other game. | -- | 23-53-6 |
| 32 |  | 0.0% | The Sharks have now lost 12 straight games, all in regulation, so it's probably fair to say their playoff chances are 0.0%. There is always next year ... or the year after that ... or the year after that. Boy, that Macklin Celebrini looks really talented. | -- | 19-54-9 |
