Update: The first College Football Playoff Rankings of 2016 have been released. Click here to view them.

Original story

As we have for the past several weeks, ahead of the first College Football Playoff Rankings release on Nov. 1, we are predicting what the top 25 will look like Tuesday night.

Here, we try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.

What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after.

With all of that in mind, here is how I think the top 25 will look this week.

Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here.

1. Alabama: The Crimson Tide had the week off to get ready for a trip to LSU this week. That looming Iron Bowl matchup is looking scarier every week, though.

2. Clemson: Deshaun Watson led another comeback, this time at Florida State. The Tigers' schedule strength and quality wins give them the nod over Michigan for now.

3. Michigan: The Wolverines got a fight from Michigan State but came away unscathed. Michigan is just treading water until they get a shot at Ohio State.

4. Texas A&M: The Aggies played the Aggies from New Mexico State last week in a game that served no purpose other than to damage their strength of schedule. The next few games aren't going to help much either.

5. Washington: The Huskies' passed their first big test of the season in a seven-point win at Utah. Down years for Stanford and Oregon have hurt their schedule, which still measures significantly worse than the other major undefeated teams.

6. Ohio State: Northwestern gave the Buckeyes a tougher test than expected. The challenge gets tough when Nebraska shows up this week.

7. Louisville: The Cards had to come from behind to win at Virginia, but they aren't clicking on all cylinders quite the way they were before losing to Clemson.

8. Wisconsin: The Badgers keep pounding away with the latest victim being formerly unbeaten Nebraska. They have only lost to Ohio State and Michigan and may get another crack at one of them eventually.

9. Penn State: After the big win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions came out a little flat against Purdue but ran it up in the second half to the tune of 45 points and an easy win.

10. Auburn: The Tigers are flying under the radar a bit, but their only losses so far have come to Clemson and Texas A&M at home. They are starting to dominate opponents and could be the toughest opponent left on Alabama's schedule.

11. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers nearly knocked off Wisconsin in Madison. Now they get a shot at Ohio State, which hasn't looked like world-beaters the past three weeks.

12. Florida: The Gators pulled away from Georgia to win the World's Largest Cocktail Party. A loss by Tennessee has Florida firmly in control of the SEC East.

13. West Virginia: The Mountaineers' defense finally broke at Oklahoma State and so did their hopes of an undefeated season.

14. North Carolina: UNC is tied for first in the ACC Coastal division with Virginia Tech, but the Hokies hold the tiebreaker. The Tar Heels should be favored in each remaining game.

15. Colorado: The Buffaloes celebrated their week off by taking over first place in the Pac-12 South. They finish with three out of four at home, including the game that could decide the division against Utah at the end of the year.

16. LSU: Firing Les Miles seems to have worked out OK. Ed Orgeron's tryout for the permanent head coaching job gets its biggest test this week when Alabama visits.

17. Oklahoma: The Sooners are the last team to be undefeated in Big 12 play, and that doesn't figure to change this week at Iowa State

18. Tennessee: It's been a bad week at Tennessee. The Vols were upset at South Carolina for their third loss in a row and running back Jalen Hurd announced that he is transferring.

19. Virginia Tech: The Hokies control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal after winning at Pitt.

20. Florida State: The Seminoles had Clemson on the ropes but couldn't finish the job. There haven't been too many years lately where November rolls around and they are looking up at Syracuse and Wake Forest in the standings.

21. Boise State: The Broncos lost at Wyoming on a strange play -- a fumble through the end zone for a safety. They are the highest rated non-major in this projection, but it won't do the Broncos any good if they don't win the league. They need the Cowboys to lose twice to make that possible.

22. Western Michigan: The Broncos are going to have a hard time overcoming their strength of schedule. Northwestern playing better football over the last month is helping, but may not be enough.

23. Utah: The Utes came up short at home against Washington. If not for a loss at Cal, we could still be talking about this team as having an outside shot at the playoff.

24. USC: The Trojans are the third three-loss team on this list. All three have played great schedules, which is why they are here.

25. Baylor: The Bears lost for the first time this season at Texas. Baylor's strength of schedule is by far the worst of any major conference team at this point of the season.