It goes without saying that everything we're discussing here is based on too little information. In fact, most of what we saw Thursday will quickly be forgotten. But when we finally have real baseball again, how can we resist digging in right away, analyzing what perhaps ought not to be analyzed?
You know you're doing it yourself, so the least I can do is do it along with you. Let's just agree to try to do it responsibly, mkay?
Speaking of doing things responsibly, one opening day development that didn't happen on the field -- and in fact forced players off of it -- was a health and safety situation. The Nationals are dealing a COVID-19 outbreak, with multiple players having testing positive, and so their opener against the Mets on Thursday was postponed.
At last report, there was some hope the two teams would be able to resume play Saturday, but if last season is any guide, these outbreaks often need 5-10 days to run their course. It would suggest not only that this weekend's series against the Mets in jeopardy but also that next week's against the Braves is. Make sure to back up whatever players you have on those three teams and err on the side of caution when setting your lineups.
Now then, for the actual baseball stuff ...
We talk opening day winners and losers, plus waiver wire adds on the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast. You can follow us to make sure you get the latest episodes when they drop on Apple and Spotify.
Disgraceful aces
Early in the day, I was getting some blowback for pushing Shane Bieber so hard in Round 1. He allowed three earned through two innings, his velocity was down, and it was all happening against a bad Tigers club.
But, um ... it was snowing outside.
I'll never understand how athletes continue to perform at a high level in freezing temperatures, when their muscles are stiff, they can't grip worth a darn, and everything feels heavy and slow. Bieber, though, rose to the occasion, recovering to throw four scoreless innings while striking out 12 in what turned out to be a quality start. If that's him at his worst, you'll take it.
And as the day played out, it became clear he was one of the few aces to perform anywhere close to expectations. Some of the lowlights include ...
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I'm going to save us some time here: They're fine. I suppose it's possible one or two of them aren't, but there's no way we could determine it from this one outing. Bad outings happen to good pitchers all the time, and it's not so uncommon to see them happen right out of the gate as they transition from buildup mode to competitive mode.
What matters more than the actual performance is what contributed to it, and whatever red flags popped up for these pitchers are easy enough to explain away.
Two did show a concerning drop in velocity: Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty. But like Bieber, they were pitching with the temperature in the 30s and snow falling off and on. All four of the pitchers who started in those conditions -- Bieber, Castillo, Flaherty and Matthew Boyd -- saw their average velocity drop 2-3 mph. That's a strong enough correlation for me.
"It's definitely pretty hard to throw in the cold," Castillo said. "I tried to breathe on my fingers to keep my hands warm. The one thing I didn't feel was my face."
Afterward, manager David Bell said he didn't see anything concerning. I would tend to agree.
It's true Kyle Hendrick's velocity was also down a little, but when he's typically throwing 87 mph, what difference is 85, really? And while Clayton Kershaw's velocity was down a bit from 2020, it was comparable to what he averaged in 2019. He deserves a pass for pitching at Coors Field anyway.
The other two, Brandon Woodruff and Yu Darvish, had absolutely nothing wrong with them, as far as I can tell. It was just one of those days.
So again, these underperforming aces are, in all likelihood, fine, and if someone in your league is panic selling any of them, I'd buy. The opportunity to add another high-end hurler won't often present itself during the season. People tend to cling tightly to them.
Chasing saves
-- Initial indication from the Padres is that Mark Melancon is the closer. Emilio Pagan was the one with all the buzz coming out of camp, but he worked the seventh inning and left-hander Drew Pomeranz worked the eighth. It all played out beautifully, with each working a scoreless inning, and I suspect manager Jayce Tingler won't be looking to shake things up for as long as that continues. It's worth noting that two left-handed hitters were due up in the eighth, when Pomeranz came in, but the same was true for the ninth.
-- For the Blue Jays, Rafael Dolis pitched the eighth inning of a tie game and Jordan Romano the ninth, which would seem to establish them as the setup man and closer, respectively. But Julian Merryweather pitched a scoreless 10th inning for the actual save and looked brilliant doing it, striking out the side on 11 pitches, his fastball hitting 99 mph. It doesn't mean he's about to leapfrog Romano, but he's another name to file away in case Romano falters.
Julian Merryweather, 97mph Fastball & 79mph Changeup, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/vPXKABfaga
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2021
-- Left-hander Gregory Soto got the Tigers' first save chance, and seeing as only one lefty (Josh Naylor) was due up in the ninth inning, it didn't seem like handedness factored into the decision. Of course, Soto served up a two-run homer to Roberto Perez, nearly blowing the lead, but because he ultimately secured the save, I'll still call him the front-runner for now. For what it's worth, Bryan Garcia was warming up when the game ended, potentially to bail out Soto. Jose Cisnero, another closer hopeful, pitched earlier in the contest.
-- The Indians didn't have a save chance in their loss to the Tigers, but their presumptive closer, James Karinchak, still pitched, working a scoreless eighth inning with the team trailing by three. He walked one, throwing just nine of his 17 pitches for strikes, which is of course the rub with him. It's possible manager Terry Francona was just getting him some work with the team off Friday, but I'm taking it as an early sign Francona is leaning more toward Nick Wittgren or Emmanuel Clase as his closer.
-- Despite manager Derek Shelton's insistence that he didn't want to use Richard Rodriguez in the ninth inning, that's exactly what he did against the Cubs, and the right-hander predictably got the job done, striking out two while walking one. Chris Stratton, another closer candidate, was shaky in the eighth inning, but up-and-comer David Bednar, who dominated this spring, struck out two in a perfect seventh.
-- The Braves didn't have a save chance in their extra-inning loss to the Phillies, but Will Smith was the one who worked the ninth. Here's how that went down:
Will Smith struck out the side with the game tied in the ninth. He's the closer, clowns.
— Scott White (@CBSScottWhite) April 1, 2021
-- Diego Castillo got the first save for the Rays, striking out two in a scoreless ninth inning, with fellow right-hander Peter Fairbanks working the eighth. Those two are the leading candidates for saves with Nick Anderson undergoing Tommy John surgery, but there isn't a team more committed to the closer committee than the Rays.
-- No clarity yet for the Twins. Taylor Rogers, the left-hander who had been the team's go-to in the ninth inning the past two years, worked the seventh in this one. Alex Colome, who they brought in this offseason to steady the role, allowed three unearned runs on two hits in the ninth, blowing the save. Colome will surely get more chances -- he's fairly proven as a closer, after all -- but will he get all of them? I have my doubts.
-- Greg Holland, who's purportedly the closer for the Royals, came in to record the final out in the eighth inning and then struggled in the ninth, prompting manager Mike Matheny to bring in Wade Davis. Davis looked good, striking out both of the batters he faced and averaging the most he has on his fastball since 2018, when he recorded a career-high 43 saves. Matheny mixed it up last year before settling on Trevor Rosenthal and may end up doing the same this year.
-- Speaking of Rosenthal, he's beginning the year on the IL because of shoulder fatigue. It doesn't sound like a serious issue -- more about him having trouble bouncing back from outings after missing much of spring training with a groin injury -- so you shouldn't blow out your FAB budget in pursuit of left-hander Jake Diekman. But he is the most likely choice for the ninth inning while Rosenthal is sidelined.
-- It sounds like Alex Reyes is at least in the mix for saves to begin the season, with manager Mike Schildt telling the media Thursday that they shouldn't be surprised if the right-hander works late in games. Of course, this is the same manager who declared Kwang-Hyun Kim the closer just before the start of last season, and you see how long that lasted. Reyes is a hard thrower with big bat-missing ability, making him a more natural fit for the role, but the Cardinals also have a plan to get him to 100 innings this year, hoping to return him to the starting rotation next year. In the long run, I still think the job falls to Jordan Hicks, who's working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
You love to see it
The pitching duel of the day was between two hurlers who got some buzz this spring for altering their pitch selections. Both of them followed through on it to fantastic results:
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Sandy Alcantara made more extensive use of his changeup than ever, creating an effective counter to his 98-mph fastball, and it was responsible for six of his 16 swinging strikes, more than he had in any start last year. If he emerges as a legitimate bat-misser to go along with his ground-ball tendencies and penchant for working deep into games, he'll really be onto something.
Tyler Glasnow, meanwhile, featured this slider/cutter hybrid 34 percent of the time. It's brand spanking new:
Tyler Glasnow, Filthy 89mph Slutter. 😷 pic.twitter.com/WK9o7GjOkD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2021
The rich get richer, right?
-- Ketel Marte, whose power evaporated on him last year after a monstrous 2019, got off on the right foot this year by homering, doubling and singling twice. He had a strong showing this spring, too, batting .341 (14 for 41) with three homers and seven doubles.
-- Another spring standout for the Diamondbacks, Josh Rojas, started at shortstop and batted leadoff. He went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts, though, so mixed bag there.
-- Marcus Semien batted leadoff for the Blue Jays and Cavan Biggio second. They went a combined 0 for 10 with five strikeouts, but their high placement in the lineup improves their chances of making a worthwhile Fantasy contribution, provided they keep those spots.
-- Teoscar Hernandez had one of the most impressive home runs of the day, sending a Gerrit Cole slider 437 feet. He went 3 for 4 overall. I'm skeptical of his 2020 breakthrough given that it happened over a small sample and with some putrid plate discipline, but this is obviously a nice start.
-- Byron Buxton showed the extent of his potential, hitting a 456-foot home run and also stealing a base. His power production took a big step forward last year, though it once again came in an injury-plagued campaign. He should be productive for as long as he's healthy.
-- Michael Taylor's Royals debut couldn't have gone any better. He went 3 for 5, including an opposite-field homer, and showed off his defensive chops by gunning down a runner at home plate. Health and plate discipline have derailed him in the past, but making more contact is a point of emphasis for him this season. Having ditched a leg kick, he hit .333 (13 for 39) with two homers and a 1.053 OPS this spring.
-- Kenta Maeda wasn't his usual model of efficiency, needing 88 pitches to get through 4 1/3 innings against the Brewers, but he was effective enough and leaned on his slider as much as he did during his breakthrough 2020, throwing it 43 percent of the time.
-- Ke'Bryan Hayes picked up where he left off last September, hitting a laser into the Wrigley Field bleachers off Kyle Hendricks.
162 games of Ke’Bryan Hayes SIGN US UP.
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 1, 2021
(🎥 @AlexFast8)
pic.twitter.com/ViIWFNIy9u
He stood out for his exit velocity this spring, too, when he hit .431 (22 for 51) with 10 extra-base hits.
-- Max Fried had a so-so opener against the Phillies, allowing two earned runs on six hits with two walks and eight strikeouts in five innings. His 18 swinging strikes, though, were a career high, which is especially notable given the way his strikeout rate dipped last year. The velocity was up on all of his pitches, too, so it's something to monitor.
-- It would seem like former Giants ace Madison Bumgarner picked up where he left off last year, allowing six earned runs in four innings at the Padres, but more notable is that his velocity bounced back to 2019 levels after nosediving last year. He's not worth rostering as of now, but perhaps we shouldn't bury him just yet.
-- Gavin Lux started at second base for the Dodgers with right-hander German Marquez on the mound, but he apparently isn't in a straight platoon with the right handed-hitting Chris Taylor, who got the start in left field. A.J. Pollock was the odd man out, and the distribution of at-bats between the three figures to be a subject of interest for the foreseeable future.
-- Garrett Hampson started in center field with Chris Owings at second base against left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Owings ended up reaching base four times, including once on a triple, and swiping two bags, but he's the less likely of the two to find his way into more at-bats. Both Ryan McMahon and Sam Hilliard were on the bench for this one but figure to start against righties.
-- Reds rookie Jonathan India got the start at second base as expected and went 2 for 4 with a double. He hit .313 (15 for 48) with three homers, five doubles, two steals and a 1.045 OPS to win the job this spring.
-- Rookie Kyle Isbel, the Royals' surprise right fielder to begin the year, had a strong debut, going 3 for 5 with three singles, but he struck out in his other two at-bats. He doesn't have much of a minor-league track record, and my expectations are minimal. But he's speedy with some pop.
-- If you're buying the Nick Castellanos breakout like I am, you love to see him go 3 for 5, including this laser into the left field seats:
Nick Castellanos with a deep drive to left...
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) April 1, 2021
He had 7 HRs on inside pitches last season, T-3rd most in MLB.#Reds | #OpeningDay pic.twitter.com/SshxFqrMNl
-- Starting in left field and batting leadoff for the Giants, Austin Slater continued the trend of producing whenever he's in the lineup, homering off left-hander Marco Gonzales. He had five homers, eight steals and a .914 OPS in 85 at-bats last year and four homers, two steals and a 1.328 OPS in 25 at-bats this spring. Alex Dickerson would have started in left if a right-hander was on the hill -- and in fact, Dickerson pinch hit for Slater against closer Rafael Montero in the ninth and hit a home run of his own -- but it does seem like the Giants will need to find ways to get Slater more at-bats. I'd love to see him steal some starts from Mauricio Dubon in center field.
You hate to see it
-- The Eugenio Suarez-to-shortstop experiment is off to a pretty disastrous start. He made a fielding error in the first inning, a throwing error in the second, and by that point, Luis Castillo was buried under seven runs. Castillo is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, as is co-ace Sonny Gray, so you can see why this might not be a long-term solution.
-- It took only one at-bat for the injury bug to bite Josh Donaldson, who grabbed his hamstring rounding second base on a first-inning double. The severity isn't known, but it didn't look like just a day-to-day injury. The Twins figure to play it cautiously with him given his injury history and 35 years of age. Could the injury be prospect Alex Kirilloff's ticket to the majors? Possibly, but for now, I'd guess Luis Arraez sees the biggest increase in playing time.
-- With Willie Calhoun and Khris Davis both sidelined by injury, Ronald Guzman seemed like a good bet to start at DH following a strong spring performance, but instead, Eli White got the nod. And that was with a righty (Brad Keller) on the mound, so it wasn't even a matter of handedness.
-- Speaking of Keller, he turned in a miserable performance against the Rangers, allowing six earned runs on nine hits in 1 1/3 innings. As a pitch-to-contact guy, he's susceptible to the occasional blowup, but his ground-ball tendencies make him effective more often than not. It didn't seem like he had a great feel for his slider in this one.
-- Conventional wisdom says that you should never start German Marquez at home, which is understandable given his career 5.10 ERA there vs. 3.51 on the road, but this time, it was six walks did him in. He was lucky he didn't get up more than one earned run considering, especially against the Dodgers, but throwing strikes normally isn't his problem. You'll want to play it cautiously with him for now, especially since his next start is also at home.
-- Freddy Peralta, already awarded the fifth starter job, relieved Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff and threw two 53 pitches over two innings. He was a little shaky, issuing three walks, but also recorded all six outs via the strikeout. He still lines up to take the fifth turn in the rotation thanks to some off days, but it makes you wonder if the Brewers will give him a conventional starter's workload. He only has so many innings in the tank, after all.
-- Mitch Garver went hitless in five at-bats, striking out three times. It was much like what we saw from him last year, when injuries were largely blamed. Less of that, please.
-- Nick Senzel left with a shoulder injury after a diving catch in center field, but it sounds like the injury is of the day-to-day variety. He has had shoulder surgery in the past, though, so the Reds may opt to play it cautiously.
-- We already knew White Sox manager Tony La Russa would sit rookie Andrew Vaughn for the season opener, but Angels manager Joe Maddon's decision to sit Jared Walsh was just as perplexing. He's supposed to be the starter over Albert Pujols, and seeing as the White Sox had Lucas Giolito, a tough righty, on the mound, the left-handed hitter would have been the more logical choice anyway. Walsh did struggle this spring, batting .205 (9 for 44) with just one extra-base hit.
-- Tommy La Stella was out of the lineup against a lefty, replaced by Donovan Solano at second base. If you weren't already worried that Oracle Park would neutralize this power, now there's a playing time concern as well.
Some cool moments
-- Cody Bellinger hit a home run in his second at-bat, but it didn't show up in the box score. That's because he passed Justin Turner on the base paths. Turner was retreating, thinking the ball was caught. Here's how that looked:
Cody Bellinger homers for the second out of the inning to score a run. Baseball! pic.twitter.com/VVxTBvrhLy
— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 1, 2021
It was officially scored a single. You can understand Turner's confusion given that Raimel Tapia had the ball in his glove momentarily, but if you lose your matchup by four points, you know who to blame.
-- Didi Gregorius made one of the most unnatural and impressive catches you'll ever see.
Didiiiiiiiii!!!! pic.twitter.com/aMf14UGKUY
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 1, 2021
There's laying out for a ball, and then there's going full cadaver, like he did there.
