The road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby rolls through Southern California when the starting gate opens in the 2023 Sham Stakes on Sunday at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif. The one-mile Sham Stakes awards Derby qualification points to the top five finishers on a 10-4-3-2-1 basis, however the four Bob Baffert-trained horses are ineligible to earn points because of Baffert's suspension imposed by Churchill Downs. National Treasure, who is trained by Baffert, has been installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the 2023 Sham Stakes odds. Speed Boat Beach, who also is trained by Baffert, and Spun Intended, who is trained by Mark Glatt, are the co-second choices, at 5-2. Jeff Mullins' Packs a Wahlop (6-1) and Baffert's Newgate (6-1) and Reincarnate (8-1) round out the six-horse Sham Stakes 2023 field.
Post time is 6:30 p.m. ET. With six lightly raced 3-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Sunday, you'll want to see what astute racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2023 Sham Stakes picks.
Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.
Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In the 2011 Kentucky Derby, she correctly tabbed Animal Kingdom to win at a hefty 21-1. In the 2017 Breeders' Cup, she nailed 11-1 long shot Wuheida to win the Filly and Mare Turf. Last year, in a wide-open Kentucky Derby, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, she hit the Knicks Go-Medina Spirit exacta for $260.80. And in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager this year, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.
Since joining SportsLine in November 2021, her picks have cashed in the 2021 and '22 Breeders' Cup Classics, Kentucky Oaks, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, among other races. And in last year's Sham Stakes, she nailed the exacta for $156. Anyone who has followed her is way up.
Now, Yu has handicapped the 2023 Sham Stakes field, given her horse-by-horse analysis, made her picks and constructed her wagers. Head to SportsLine to see them.
Top 2023 Sham Stakes predictions
Yu, who went through the past performances and morning workouts of every horse in the 2023 Sham Stakes field, is down on the chances of the Baffert-trained Speed Boat Beach. The co-second choice on the morning line, at 5-2, Speed Boat Beach has earned $178,000 in four career starts. In his last race, Speed Boat Beach earned a game victory in the Cecille B. DeMille Stakes on Dec. 4.
But that race was on the turf, and he has yet to show he can carry his speed around two turns on the dirt. "This horse is playable but hard to love at a short price with some question marks," Yu told SportsLine. She is not including Speed Boat Beach in any of her wagers. See which horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 Sham Stakes picks
Yu's top choice is a horse who was "one-paced" in his last start. She also is high on a horse who looks "fit, confident and fast." She is including these horses in her 2023 Sham Stakes bets, and so should you. She's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2023 Sham Stakes? What fit, confident and fast horse is a must-back? What does Yu think of every horse in the race? And how has she constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Sham Stakes.
2023 Sham Stakes odds, post positions
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newgate | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | National Treasure | 2-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Speed Boat Beach | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Reincarnate | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Packs a Wahlop | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Spun Intended | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
