British Open 2018 odds and picks: Tiger Woods projection from same model that nailed four golf majors

The 2018 British Open, also known as the Open Championship, gets underway Thursday in Scotland at the venerable Carnoustie Championship Course, with the first group teeing at 1:35 a.m. ET. Experienced and amateur bettors alike will lock in wagers on golf's third major, which brings together the top players to compete at this challenging par-71 course known for its unpredictable weather and high scores. Dustin Johnson, currently ranked No. 1 in the world, is the favorite at 12-1 British Open odds. Several past champions, including three-time winner Tiger Woods, are among the challengers at the British Open 2018. Woods, who is listed at 25-1 odds, is one of 15 golfers going off at 25-1 Open Championship odds or shorter. 

Before you make any 2018 British Open picks on any of the big names or long shots, or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings, you'll want to see what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the 2018 Masters, predicting the career-defining victory for Patrick Reed entering the weekend. It also nailed the Masters and U.S. Open last year, calling wins for Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. Then it was all over Jordan Spieth at the 2017 British Open from the start and called his third major victory with three rounds to play.

Now that the 147th British Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the British Open 2018: Tiger Woods, a three-time champion, makes a strong run, but falls just short of winning the title.

Woods enters the 2018 British Open with a solid track record at Carnoustie: a seventh-place finish in 1999 and a 12th-place run in 2007. He's arriving in Scotland having recorded three top-five finishes this season, including a fourth place in his latest start at the Quicken Loans National.

Woods struggled at the Masters (32nd) and U.S. Open (cut) this year, but he has been in command of his putter, which will be critical on the challenging Carnoustie greens. He's 22nd on the PGA Tour in putts per round at 28.45 and has dominated putting in the first round, averaging just 27.80, good for seventh on tour. He hasn't missed a put within three feet this season (335-for-335).

Another surprise: Rory McIlroy, a top-10 player in the world and 2014 Open Championship winner, finishes well outside the top five.

The four-time major winner has struggled recently on his stops on the PGA and European tours. Although he did win the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, he missed the cut at the Players Championship and the U.S. Open. He also finished 28th at the Irish Open in a tune-up for the British Open 2018. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 16-1 premium he's commanding.

Also, the model says five other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer will make a deep run at the British Open title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 British Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the British Open projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed four of the last six majors heading into the weekend.

Dustin Johnson 12-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1
Ricke Fowler 16-1
Justin Rose 16-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Jon Rahm 20-1
Jason Day 25-1
Tiger Woods 25-1
Henrik Stenson 25-1
Sergio Garcia 25-1
Alex Noren 25-1
Francesco Molinari 25-1
Patrick Reed 30-1
Paul Casey 30-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1
Branden Grace 40-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Ian Poulter 50-1

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