The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series continues on Sunday at Road America for the 2022 Kwik Trip 250. Chase Elliott leads the NASCAR standings and is the defending champion at Road America after NASCAR made its return to the 14-turn, 4.048-mile road course for the first time since 1958. Elliott is already a seven-time winner on road courses in his career and been top-10 in both of the road races so far this season. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on NBC (stream now on FuboTV).

Elliott is the 9-2 favorite in the 2022 Kwik Trip 250 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while defending NASCAR champion Kyle Larson is next on the board at 5-1. Ross Chastain won at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season and is 7-1 in the 2022 NASCAR at Road America odds. Before scouring the 2022 Kwik Trip 250 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Road America predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Road America picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Road America race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Kwik Trip 250 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Kwik Trip 250 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Daniel Suarez, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Road America odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Suarez turned in 32 top-10 finishes during the first three years of his Cup career, but a poor 2020 season in which he didn't record a single top 10 driving for the Gaunt Brothers led to him making the switch to Trackhouse Racing last season.

In his first year with the upstart team, he recorded only four top-10 finishes, but the level playing field provided by the next-gen car has vaulted the team to NASCAR forefront. Suarez captured his first career win in his 195th career start at Sonoma earlier this month and has two other top-five finishes under his belt. Suarez also has two other top-five finishes on road courses in his career. See which other long shots to back here.

And a massive shocker: A.J. Allmendinger, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 Kwik Trip 250 starting lineup. The current NASCAR Xfinity Series points leader notched a win at the Indianapolis Grand Prix last year while being used as a road specialist and has been running a part-time Cup schedule for Kaulig Racing this season.

However, the results simply haven't been there for the 40-year-old veteran. Allmendinger had one top-10 finish in St. Louis and has finished 19th or worse in the other seven races he's started. That includes a 33rd-place finish in a road race at Circuit of the Americas and a 19th-place finish in a road race at Sonoma earlier this month. He's been at his best in the Cup series on road courses, but the equipment hasn't been up to snuff in 2022. See which other favorites to fade here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Road America picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Road America odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Kwik Trip 250 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Road America odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Kwik Trip 250 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 Kwik Trip 250 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)

See full NASCAR at Road America picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Chase Elliott 9-2
Kyle Larson 5-1
Ross Chastain 7-1
A.J. Allmendinger 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 12-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
Austin Cindric 15-1
Christopher Bell 15-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Daniel Suarez 15-1
William Byron 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Chris Buescher 35-1
Kevin Harvick 35-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Brad Keselowski 50-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Aric Almirola 200-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse 500-1
Bubba Wallace 500-1
Todd Gilliland 500-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Kyle Tilley 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 1000-1
Joey Hand 1000-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Loris Hezemans 1000-1