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There is a plenty of anticipation ahead of the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on Sunday. Last year's NASCAR at Dover race ended up being a monumental one, with Alex Bowman getting the checkered flag as four Hendrick Motorsports drivers placed 1-2-3-4. Hendricks will be well-represented yet again at "The Monster Mile," but victory is far from guaranteed. Chase Elliott, who placed third last year, is the only Hendrick team member with a win this season, making the playing field level heading into NASCAR at Dover 2022. The NASCAR Dover green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 (stream now on FuboTV).

According to Caesars Sportsbook, Kyle Larson leads the way at 4-1 in the 2022 NASCAR Dover odds, with teammates Elliott and William Byron at 8-1, while Bowman is at 10-1. Martin Truex Jr. leads the non-Hendrick brigade at 15-1. Before scouring the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Dover predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 12-7 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then last month it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Dover 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The Florida native has six top-fives over his last eight races and two Cup Series victories, including a checkered flag at Talladega last weekend. No racer has more wins or top-fives on the season, which has boosted Chastain to No. 3 in NASCAR projected playoff points.

Chastain also has a track record of success at Dover Motor Speedway dating back to before he joined the Trackhouse Racing Team. He has two top-three Dover finishes while on the Xfinity Series and had his best Cup Series race at Dover last season, when he placed in the top-15. Given his success this year with Trackhouse, he is primed to make this his best race yet at Dover, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 starting grid. Byron also has two victories this season and will enter Sunday's NASCAR Dover race sitting third in the standings.

However, the 24-year-old has finished 15th and 18th in his last two starts and been outside the top 10 in four of his seven career starts there in a Cup car. Byron has been competitive at Dover, but doesn't have a win in 10 career starts at the track scattered over his NASCAR Cup Series (seven), NASCAR Xfinity Series (two) and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (one) career.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Dover picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the DuraMAX Drydene 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 odds

Kyle Larson 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-2
Chase Elliott 8-1
William Byron 8-1
Alex Bowman 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Ross Chastain 15-1
Tyler Reddick 18-1
Christopher Bell 22-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Brad Keselowski 60-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Ryan Preece 200-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1