The NASCAR Cup Series returns to California for the second road race of the season at Sonoma Raceway when the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 gets underway on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET. One driver in search of his first Cup Series victory that could push for the win on Sunday is Tyler Reddick. Now in his fourth season, Reddick finished fifth at the first road course stop this season in Austin, but should you consider him among your NASCAR at Sonoma best bets?
Road courses don't afford NASCAR drivers the same sort of opportunities that wider superspeedways do, but Reddick is 18-1 in the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds listed on Caesars Sportsbook. Should you back the youngster, or are more experienced veterans like Kyle Larson (5-1), Kyle Busch (10-1), or Martin Truex Jr. (17-2) better options? Before scouring the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Sonoma picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.
In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again last week when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Sonoma (see tickets at StubHub) race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 leaderboard.
Top 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Chase Briscoe, even though he's a 16-1 long in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Briscoe carries an element of high risk-high reward, as he's finished no better than 20th in five of his last seven races. However, Briscoe has captured two poles and won earlier this season at Phoenix.
Briscoe is still within the top 15 of the NASCAR Cup Series standings, and despite his sometimes disappointing finishes, he's run more than 52 percent of his total laps inside the top 15 of the field. Even more impressively, Briscoe is ninth among all drivers in total fastest laps this season (154). In last year's Toyota/Save Mart 350, Briscoe finished 17th after starting 25th, and he could be a big threat to improve on that this weekend, as he has three top-10 finishes in seven Cup Series road course races.
And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 17-2, fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 lineup. Truex is a three-time winner at Sonoma Raceway and was the gold standard for road racing in NASCAR for several years but it seems as if he's been surpassed by Elliott and Larson recently.
It's been nearly three years since Truex's last road win (at Sonoma) and he's only been inside the top five in two of his last eight road races. It's a form of stock car racing that more and more drivers are familiarizing themself with and it appears that Truex has lost his edge to an extent. He's also winless on the year and only has two top-five finishes in 15 starts this season.
How to make 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Toyota/Save Mart 350 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season.
2022 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott 9-2
Kyle Larson 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 17-2
Ross Chastain 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
A.J. Allmendinger 14-1
Austin Cindric 14-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Chase Briscoe 16-1
Denny Hamlin 16-1
Tyler Reddick 18-1
Christoper Bell 18-1
Daniel Suarez 20-1
Kurt Busch 22-1
William Byron 22-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Kevin Harvick 35-1
Erik Jones 60-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Justin Haley 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Brad Keselowski 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Austin Dillon 125-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse 300-1
Todd Gilliland 500-1
Ty Dillon 750-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Josh Bilicki 2500-1
Joey Hand 2500-1
Scott Heckert 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
