Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks take on Nikola Vucevic and the Orlando Magic in Game 4 on Monday afternoon in the 2020 NBA Playoffs. The Bucks lead the best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin after consecutive wins, with the Magic aiming to bounce back in this matchup. Jonathan Isaac (knee), Mo Bamba (post-COVID) and Michael-Carter Williams (foot) are out for Game 4, with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Melvin Frazier (back) listed as questionable.
Tip-off is at 1:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Bucks as 13.5-point favorites, down half a point in the latest Bucks vs. Magic odds. The over-under for total points is 225, down half a point as well. Before making any Magic vs. Bucks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Magic spread: Bucks -13.5
- Bucks vs. Magic over-under: 225 points
- Bucks vs. Magic money line: Bucks -1100, Magic +700
- MIL: Bucks are 5-6 against the spread in their last 11 games
- ORL: Magic are 5-6 against the spread in their last 11 games
Why the Bucks can cover
This is an exceptionally favorable matchup for Milwaukee's already dominant defense. The Bucks led the NBA in points allowed per possession this season, also setting the pace by leading in defensive rebounding and shooting efficiency allowed. In contrast, Orlando's offense is below-average even at full strength, ranking in the bottom 10 of the NBA in points per possession and effective field goal percentage.
Milwaukee's offense hasn't been clicking on all cylinders to this point in the bubble, but the Bucks are finding their footing against Orlando. Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton bring star power to the proceedings, and Milwaukee should take advantage of a Magic defense that is below-average in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Why the Magic can cover
The Magic are giving up a considerable amount in roster talent, but Orlando is attempting to bridge the gap with scheme. Steve Clifford's team is very strong on the defensive glass, and Orlando's defensive approach produces quality results in contesting shots near the rim. The Magic also create turnovers and keep opponents off the free-throw line, both of which are areas the Bucks are closer to average than elite.
Offensively, Orlando has enjoyed success in this matchup with a strong assist rate and a more-than-acceptable 55.8 percent true shooting. The Magic also know this is an important game in attempting to spark a comeback in the series, with the Bucks knowing they have a larger margin for error overall.
How to make Bucks vs. Magic picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Middleton and Evan Fournier projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick here.
So who wins Magic vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Magic spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.