The 2022 NBA Draft is now less than two months away. Unlike some years, there is still no consensus projected No. 1 overall pick as franchises seem genuinely split on whether the first player off of the board should be Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren, Duke's Paolo Banchero, Auburn's Jabari Smith or Purdue's Jaden Ivey. They're all very different players with different bodies and skill sets. I could make an argument in favor of any of them. But, at this point, after watching each player perform for an entire season of college basketball, I'm leaning slightly toward Holmgren because he's the most unique of the group and, I think, the prospect with the highest ceiling.
Yes, I know he's very thin.
No, I'm not sure that'll ever significantly change.
But focusing too much on Holmgren's slight frame feels a little like how so many people focused too much on Luka Doncic's lack of athleticism in advance of the 2018 NBA Draft. Was it something to be considered? Sure. But locking in on that led to some discounting the fact that Doncic was doing unprecedented things for a player his age in Europe, which is my way of saying that locking in on Holmgren's body can distract from the fact that the 7-foot center just did unprecedented things for a player his age in college. He's an incredible rim-protector who can, on the offensive end, bounce it and shoot it comfortably and confidently. It's not a stretch to suggest we've never seen a prospect quite like Holmgren. So I'm just going to trust that his slight frame won't keep him from being the kind of NBA star his talent indicates is possible. If the Houston Rockets do indeed win the lottery, they should select Holmgren first.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
I understand the concerns about Holmgren's slight frame — but he's such a unique talent that I'd be uncomfortable passing on a 7-foot legitimate rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. I was somewhat skeptical before his one year with the Zags but saw enough in 32 games to become a believer.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Banchero is probably the safest option at the top of this draft. He's a big, strong and skilled forward who could be the key to quickly returning the Magic to a place of relevance.
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Round 1- Pick 3
Smith still needs to develop in lots of ways because at this point he's mostly just a 6-10 shooter on the offensive end of the court. But he's such a great shooter for a player his size, and a great athlete and competitor in general, that there's no reason to seriously doubt the idea that he could create an incredible duo with Cade Cunningham in Detroit.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Ivey is an explosive athlete who plays big and is capable of attacking the rim in a variety of ways. As the Thunder continue to add interesting young pieces, the former Purdue star would be a great option at this point in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Murray is a switchable big who can guard in space and consistently make shots from the perimeter. What he does, at his size, is perfectly suited for the modern NBA and would fit well with an Indiana franchise that needs to add talent in the frontcourt.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Even though he enrolled in January and was eligible to compete, Sharpe never played at Kentucky in part because the people around him wanted to protect his status as a projected top-10 pick. Unless he really bombs in workouts, it's hard to imagine the explosive athlete going much lower than this considering he's a gifted scorer with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender on the wing.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
I'm higher on Agbaji than most simply because I don't understand what's not to like about a 6-5 athlete who is a plus-defender on the wing and excellent 3-point shooter. Once you get past the top-tier prospects in this draft, the Kansas star makes as much sense as anybody.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 8
Davis went from a mostly anonymous power-conference player to a candidate for national player of the year in his sophomore season at Wisconsin. An ankle injury limited the 6-5 guard down the stretch, but he showed enough before that to justify his status as a projected lottery pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Duren isn't really the type of floor-spacing big franchises prefer these days, but he's such a physical specimen and great athlete that there's probably a place for him in the top 10 of this draft. At worst, he should be a terrific rim-running and rim-protecting center who alters shots and dunks everything.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Mathurin was the star of Arizona's team that won the Pac-12 and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-6 wing is an impressive athlete and above-average shooter who could lighten the scoring load on Bradley Beal in Washington.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
It took Griffin a little while to get comfortable at Duke because of a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect his ability to show his athleticism. But the wing eventually showed glimpses of why he's a lottery talent, mostly by proving to be a fantastic 3-point shooter who made 44.7% of his 4.1 attempts from beyond the arc per game.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 12
Sochan is the rare sub-100 high school recruit who could be a one-and-done lottery pick. His ability to guard multiple positions in multiple ways is among the reasons he's a tantalizing prospect who is one of the most versatile players available in this draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Williams, like fellow projected lottery pick Duren, is more of a traditional big than a modern big. But any franchise in need of a rim-protector and lob-catcher — like Charlotte — would have to consider him at this point in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Branham is a shooting guard with good size and great length who really flourished in the second half of the season. While shooting 41.6% from the 3-point line, the one-and-done standout became the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and a legitimate lottery option for his home-state franchise.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 15
Eason was a breakout star at LSU after transferring following a so-so first season at Cincinnati. He's a versatile frontcourt option — i.e., somebody very different than the player I have projected to Charlotte with the 13th pick — who can guard multiple positions and punish defenses in transition opportunities.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
 
Ousmane Dieng
SF
France
• Fr
• 6'9"
/ 185 lbs
Dieng is a long and skilled prospect who still needs to develop but is worth a serious look anywhere outside of the lottery. He might not contribute immediately but definitely projects as an interesting long-term investment with undeniable potential.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1 - Pick 17
 
Dyson Daniels
SG
G League Ignite
• Fr
• 6'7"
/ 199 lbs
Daniels isn't quite the prospect previous Ignite stars have been but is still a fascinating guard with size who can play with or without the ball. His jumper, at this point, is the biggest area of concern.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Kessler was arguably the best defensive player in college basketball this season while averaging 4.6 blocks per game. He's an incredible rim-protector with the potential to develop into a comfortable perimeter shooter.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Washington mostly played off the ball in his one season at Kentucky but projects as a lead guard in the NBA. Ankle injuries limited him in the second half of the season but the one-and-done Wildcat showed enough before he was hampered to solidify his status as a top-20 pick.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 20
 
Jaden Hardy
SG
G League Ignite
• Fr
• 6'3"
/ 198 lbs
Hardy didn't do much over the past year to help his draft stock — but he's still an obvious first-round talent capable of developing into a special player. Being drafted by a franchise like San Antonio would probably be the best thing for the trajectory of his career.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Brown never really became more than a role player in his one season at Baylor, which is notable and somewhat concerning. But the 6-8 wing still has the physical tools to make him worthy of a first-round pick from a Denver franchise desperate to put more talent around Nikola Jokic.
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From
Utah Jazz
Round 1 - Pick 22
The possibility of Tyus Jones leaving via free agency might have Memphis in the market for a point guard. At this point in the draft, the best option would be Chandler — the Memphis-raised product who has won at every level and already has a close relationship with Grizzlies' star Ja Morant.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 23
Liddell is the type of player who could help Brooklyn's core of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons theoretically compete for a title next season. He's undersized but undeniably effective.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Moore shot above 40% from 3-point range in his final season at Duke. The bet here is that his jumper is a translatable skill, which would be valuable in a place like Milwaukee, where chasing championships is the goal for the foreseeable future.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 25
Braun is a wing with size who can guard his position, reliably make jumpers and finish in transition. He's the type of prospect who could flourish in the culture San Antonio has established.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Jalen Brunson's pending free agency could lead to a departure from Dallas, which might have the Mavericks targeting a point guard with this pick. If so, Davison, a big-dunking one-and-done athlete, would be a reasonable option.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Adding a young athlete to the backcourt wouldn't be the worst idea for a Miami franchise that just recorded the best record in the Eastern Conference. Wesley is exactly that and would be a steal at the bottom of the first round if his jumper becomes more consistent.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
With James Wiseman's potential unclear, the Warriors could target a center with their lone first-round pick. Koloko is the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year with better mobility than most bigs his size.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Baldwin was a projected top-10 pick before he more or less disappeared for a year after choosing to play for his father at Milwaukee. The Grizzlies could afford to take a big swing here and see if they hit on another pick late in the first round.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 30
 
Nikola Jovic
SF
Serbia
• Fr
• 6'10"
/ 205 lbs
Oklahoma City remains very much in rebuild mode with a young core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey. Adding an 18-year-old international prospect like Jovic to the franchise could be a nice long-term move.
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