We are officially less than one week out from the 2023 NBA Draft, so with the NBA season officially in the books and the draft now days out, it's time to grab the magnifying glass and inspect closer how draft night might unfold and what we think will happen. One thing we know: Victor Wembanyama will be the No. 1 pick to the San Antonio Spurs. Lock it in. The drama, as ever, centers around who goes No. 2 and No. 3 ... and so on.
In some order, Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson are believed to be the most in play at No. 2 for the Charlotte Hornets, with the one not selected most likely to get scooped at No. 3 by the Portland Trail Blazers. Those domino decisions will create another effect, with Houston at No. 4 and Detroit at No. 5 also very much up in the air.
In our first two-round mock look-ahead for next week, our projections mirror the betting markets -- for now -- with Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson off the board for the Rockets at No. 4 and Cam Whitmore falling to Detroit at No. 5. However, even with the draft so close, keep in mind right now projections are more about ranges than definitive landing spots. So Amen could go between No. 4 and No. 7; Whitmore between No. 4 and No. 10; Jarace Walker between No. 4 and No. 8; and so on.
Am I going to be right about some landing spots? Well, yes, thanks to some combination of dumb luck and some expert tea-leaf reading. But most likely I will be way more wrong than right below. For this exercise I will fall on the knife and sacrifice some accuracy to lay out where I think prospects could go and in what ranges -- for all 58 picks (the Bulls and 76ers both forfeited second-round picks for violating league rules governing the timing of free agency discussions.)
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Let's jump in!
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
I'm setting the over/under on time spent on the clock for the Spurs here at 1.6 seconds, and I am hammering the under. Wembanyama has long been the favorite to go No. 1, and the Spurs will do what everyone expects and make him the first pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Alabama
• 6'7"
/ 200 lbs
Smoke immediately rising out of Charlotte following the lottery and in the weeks since suggests that Miller is the pick here, though Scoot Henderson should be -- and I believe is -- very much in play. The addition of a 6-9 wing in Miller who can be a dynamic offensive weapon next to LaMelo Ball is plenty enticing for the Hornets.
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Round 1- Pick 3
In a three-star draft, Portland nabs the last remaining of the big three in Henderson, the athletic G League Ignite lead guard who projects as a potential franchise building block. The fit next to Damian Lillard might not be a perfect one, but passing on his star potential at three -- aside from getting a massive haul -- would be shortsighted.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Realistically there are several names involved here at No. 4 and the Rockets' potential interest in James Harden this offseason could tilt their preference. But in a vacuum, Thompson presents the most long-term upside here as a homerun swing. He has superstar athleticism and a silky smooth game with passing and playmaking that makes him appealing, though his shot remains a work in progress.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Cam Whitmore
SF
Villanova
• 6'7"
/ 230 lbs
Detroit can establish an identity here and make a statement with either Whitmore or Jarace Walker, both of whom I think are the 1-2 preferences for the Pistons if on the board. Whitmore's a competitive wing who would help continue to establish the culture as a reinforcer and grinder next to Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Arkansas
• 6'7"
/ 200 lbs
When you think of Black the word immediately connected with him is "connector." He'd be a huge addition for the Magic who are now building around Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, giving them someone who can play selflessly on offense and embrace his role on defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Houston
• 6'7"
/ 235 lbs
Walker will be in play as early as No. 5 on draft night so the Pacers scooping him here at No. 8 would present great value. He's a ready-made combo forward with a massive reach who can be a difference-maker on defense and adds passing, playmaking and feel you more frequently get with a shooting guard or wing than a power forward.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
What direction Washington goes here remains a major mystery, and with Black -- long considered a potential Wizards fit -- off the board, I like the idea of taking a swing on the other Thompson twin. Some evaluators believe he has the same or even higher upside of his brother, Amen, and his scoring mindset and improved playmaking makes for a fun NBA projection as a do-it-all wing.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
UCF
• 6'9"
/ 215 lbs
Hendricks is a fast-rising prospect who presents immense upside in this range with a 6-9 plus-wingspan. He brings amazing defensive versatility and shooting and has the movement ability to develop into a foundational piece as Utah retools its roster.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Kentucky
• 6'3"
/ 195 lbs
Dallas could -- and I think, should -- be thinking of ways to best maximize its pieces around Luka Doncic, and for my money Wallace is the best bet here. He's a great defensive playmaker who can play on or off the ball and brings playmaking to the game as a potential secondary creator.
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From
Chicago Bulls
Round 1 - Pick 11
Jett Howard
SG
Michigan
• 6'6"
/ 215 lbs
There might be questions about what Howard can bring to the table beyond his shooting, but there are zero questions specifically about his shooting. That gives him an elite trait to bring to the table here for the Magic, something that would fit neatly around Banchero and Wagner.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
No one has a clue what OKC will do here at 12 -- Bilal Coulibaly, Kobe Bufkin, Dereck Lively all make sense if they stand pat -- but Miller is one that is at least worth watching in this range. He averaged a double-double last season with the G League Ignite and checks a lot of boxes physically for what the Thunder like in prospects: long frame, big wingspan, big IQ, multipositional.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Kobe Bufkin
SG
Michigan
• 6'5"
/ 195 lbs
The belief for Toronto is that they may look to add to their weapons in the backcourt to potentially protect themselves from Fred VanVleet's potential departure. Bufkin is a combo guard who had a breakout second half of the season for Michigan and has the scoring ability to fill it up at every area of the court to go with sound defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Indiana
• 6'5"
/ 215 lbs
NBA teams are always on the hunt for combo guard/creators like Hood-Schifino, and he flashed enough on both ends at Indiana to push for a potential lottery spot in this year's draft. Great frame, really good defensively, and knows how to attack and make plays off the bounce. His shot needs to become more developmentally consistent but the tools here are undeniable.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Coulibaly helped himself in a big way the last month in helping lead Mets 92 to the Pro A Finals. Playing next to Victor Wembanyama for gave him a huge spotlight to shine as a long wing with great athleticism who has shown improvement as a shooter.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Duke
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
Whitehead does not come without his own downsides -- he had two surgeries in the last year on his foot and played the season at Duke dealing with complications from that -- but he's a big swing worth taking for the Jazz, who can afford to be patient. The former top-five recruit has star potential as an athletic marvel who flashes big-time scoring potential.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
UCLA
• 6'6"
/ 226 lbs
Twenty-two-year-olds don't frequently climb this high in drafts, but Jaquez could be an exception. He's a savvy, experienced guard who can be a creator and scorer and embraces his role as a defensive playmaker to boot. One of the toughest prospects in the class who battled through injuries and still produced at an All-American clip.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Gradey Dick
SF
Kansas
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
Tall wings who have the ability to shoot it -- and do so successfully in the multitude of ways Dick can shoot it -- don't come around every draft. His game is tailor-made for an NBA role player with room to grow into more.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Duke
• 7'1"
/ 230 lbs
Best player available here is Lively, the one-and-done Duke big man who was among the most effective rim-protecting players in all of college hoops last season. He's still got some growing to do as an offensive weapon, but his defensive impact is a foundational piece of his game that will translate, and there is a wave of momentum at his sails during the pre-draft process that makes me think this will present real value for the Dubs.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Baylor
• 6'4"
/ 185 lbs
If you squint a bit at George's game you'll see some shades of Bradley Beal in terms of what he can do as a scorer and combo guard. George impressed NBA teams at his pro day in Chicago during the NBA Draft Combine and appears to be on the rise, though he is a bit of a polarizing prospect with a wide range of draft outcomes.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 21
Kris Murray
PF
Iowa
• 6'8"
/ 220 lbs
Murray had a breakout season for Iowa averaging north of 20 points per game while showing off range as a 3-point shooter. He's a combo forward who brings versatility, polish and size.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Colby Jones
SG
Xavier
• 6'6"
/ 207 lbs
One of my favorite prospects in this class. Jones is one of those players who can fade in and out of games, then you look up and he has 10 points, seven assists and eight rebounds. Impacts winning in a variety of ways.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 23
Ohio State
• 6'5"
/ 235 lbs
As a four-star prospect ranked 85th in his class, Sensabaugh wasn't even on the one-and-done radar entering the season. But his production with Ohio State is tough to ignore. Uses his big frame well and smashed in his role as a rotation piece hitting 40.5% of his 3-pointers on the year.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Connecticut
• 6'5"
/ 190 lbs
No player in this class is more skilled as a spot-up shooter than Hawkins, whose ability to be his own offensive hub because of his space-creation is underrated and under-appreciated. He profiles as a Duncan Robinson-like talent with better defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Santa Clara
• 6'4"
/ 205 lbs
One of the big winners of the NBA Draft Combine, Podziemski, coming off a breakout season in which he won Co-WCC Player of the Year honors at Santa Clara, goes No. 25 here as a plug-and-play combo guard who can add scoring, playmaking and toughness right away.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 26
Marquette
• 6'7"
/ 230 lbs
Prosper played so well on the first day of scrimmages at the combine that he pulled out of the second day, showing so much as an energetic combo forward that he likely solidified himself as a top-30 pick in this class. A really athletic, long forward who can shoot and impact winning with effort.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 27
Arkansas
• 6'2"
/ 185 lbs
A nagging knee injury cost Smith Jr. real exposure to showcase himself on a big stage this season after carrying momentum into the season as a potential top-three pick. But the No. 1 recruit from the 2022 class, an immensely talented scorer and slasher, is still someone I think teams will be glad to bring in and develop, and in this range he'd be a no-brainer. This is likely his floor, and it's hard to see him falling past the mid 20s.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 28
A developmental wing with real skill and a defensive baseline, Rupert hails from the NBL's New Zealand Breakers as an intriguing long-term talent worth gambling on in this range. He has incredible movement skills and flashes serious upside as a creator and downhill driver. Lots of tools to like.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 29
Indiana
• 6'9"
/ 245 lbs
Big men who don't shoot 3-pointers don't pop off the page as definite first-rounders, and yet Jackson-Davis by most measures appears to be an anomaly. He's a dominant interior scorer and rebounder who shows great touch and makes great plays as a passer, and there is optimism in NBA circles that he will in time develop into a floor-spacer.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 30
South Carolina
• 6'9"
/ 210 lbs
Not the most appealing profile coming off a disappointing season at South Carolina, but Jackson, the youngest prospect in the class and a former No. 1 recruit, has a subset believers in NBA circles and could sneak into the first round despite an underwhelming pre-draft process.
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Round 2
Mock Draft
Round 2
Round 2 - Pick 31
Connecticut
• 6'6"
/ 209 lbs
Jackson is a first-round talent if he shoots even a slightly-below average clip from 3-point range. Do-it-all glue guy and winner who isn't afraid to do the dirty work.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 2 - Pick 32
Ben Sheppard
SG
Belmont
• 6'6"
/ 190 lbs
Sheppard had a tremendous pre-draft process and starred at the NBA Combine, showcasing his shooting ability. He plays hard on both ends and could bring some underrated value in this range.
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Round 2 - Pick 33
Pepperdine
• 6'7"
/ 195 lbs
A long wing with intriguing physical tools who had a huge season last year with Pepperdine, Lewis looks like a worthwhile bet on long-term potential given his big frame and inside-out scoring ability.
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Round 2 - Pick 34
Kobe Brown
SF
Missouri
• 6'7"
/ 252 lbs
No player evokes more Draymond Green vibes than Brown does in this class. He's a big forward with guard skills who plays physical and brings versatility on both ends of the floor and is coming off a career year as a 3-point shooter.
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Round 2 - Pick 35
Noah Clowney
PF
Alabama
• 6'9"
/ 210 lbs
It'd be a stunner to see Clowney fall out of the first -- much less to No. 35 -- particularly in a class short on bigs. But in this mock he does indeed slip to No. 35, where Boston scoops him up as a developmental piece with room to grow behind Robert Williams.
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Round 2 - Pick 36
Houston
• 6'2"
/ 195 lbs
Sasser is a smidge undersized to project as a starting NBA guard but he's a flamethrower scorer who can get to his spots and has the dynamism to be an on- and off-ball threat in a rotation.
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Round 2 - Pick 37
Amari Bailey
SG
UCLA
• 6'3"
/ 185 lbs
I have Bailey ranked top-20 on my board so this is just value hunting here at 37. He had a great pre-draft process and flourished at the combine playing as a scorer and facilitator, and there's a lot of untapped potential here in what he can be as a combo guard in the NBA.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 2 - Pick 38
Jalen Wilson
SF
Kansas
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
Sacramento decision-makers seem to value winners who produce big at the college level and Wilson checks both those boxes. He was a key piece of KU's title winner two years ago and is a tenacious rebounder for his position who has made developmental strides as a shooter each season in college.
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From
Utah Jazz
Round 2 - Pick 39
Vukcevic is a sneaky late-first round contender who could be an appealing long-term investment for Charlotte if it's thinking long-term. He put up big numbers in the Adriatic League this season and acquitted himself nicely in his showing in Chicago for the combine, showing off deep range and a nice bag of offensive tricks for a 7-footer.
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From
Dallas Mavericks
Round 2 - Pick 40
Seth Lundy
SG
Penn State
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
On a team looking to bolster its roster with cheap contributors to maximize its title window, Lundy would make a lot of sense here for the Nuggets. He scored in bunches at the combine against some good competition and shot a career-best 40% from 3-point range last season at Penn State.
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Round 2 - Pick 41
Tennessee
• 6'8"
/ 197 lbs
Should Charlotte be thinking longer term, Phillips could be a nice gamble at No. 41, as I think he could've been a first-round talent in 2024 had he returned to college for another season. He tested as one of the most explosive athletes at the Combine and has the physical tools you like in a big wing, though it's hard to see him being much of a contributor early in his career.
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From
Chicago Bulls
Round 2 - Pick 42
Because this class is so light on bigs, Nnaji could well wind up working his way into the first round. Still just 18 years old, he has a 7-foot-4 wingspan and has room to grow into a rim-running big who can finish above the rim.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 2 - Pick 43
Gonzaga
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
If Portland is serious about making a run and consolidating assets to maximize Damian Lillard's prime years, Strawther would make sense as an instant-offense addition. He shoots a smooth ball and rated in the 97th percentile last season as a spot-up shooter, per Synergy data.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 2 - Pick 44
Cissoko produced at a high level for G League Ignite last season and brings a big, long frame as a promising long-term prospect at the wing. Flashed some upside as a defensive talent given his long reach and showed some off-the-bounce appeal.
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Round 2 - Pick 45
Jordan Walsh
SF
Arkansas
• 6'7"
/ 205 lbs
Walsh is a measurables All-Star who has an excellent frame and immense defensive upside given his reach and athleticism. The knock here for him that may keep him in the second round is his shot, but he brings lots of value on D and could pay off big if his shot matures.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 2 - Pick 46
Penn State
• 6'2"
/ 202 lbs
Not the best athlete, not the most appealing measurables, but plain and simple: Pickett can give you buckets. Old-man style game who can rock you to sleep with moves and uses his leverage and angles very well. Extremely smart talent.
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Round 2 - Pick 47
Kansas State
• 6'4"
/ 230 lbs
Old prospect, but a good one. Johnson took a year away from the game dealing with a medical issue that arose at Florida, but popped back on the radar last season as a star two-way player at K-State where he shot above 40% from 3-point range and brought toughness and defense to a team that nearly made the Final Four.
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Round 2 - Pick 48
Kentucky
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
The underwhelming production at Kentucky notwithstanding, Livingston is a bet on talent and size in the hopes that he can in time mature into a rotation player. Shoots an OK ball, plays hard and has explosive athletic ability, generally traits that teams like to bet on in the second.
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Round 2 - Pick 49
Omari Moore
SF
San Jose State
• 6'6"
/ 195 lbs
Toolsy mid-major wing who had a breakout season for San Jose State last season. Big frame with a 6-foot-10 wingspan who has shown improvement as an outside scorer.
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From
Miami Heat
Round 2 - Pick 50
Jaylen Clark
SG
UCLA
• 6'4"
/ 205 lbs
Clark was one of the most well-rounded defenders in college basketball last season for a contending UCLA team. He took more 3-pointers than in each of his past two seasons combined and hit a career-best 32.9% of them.
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Round 2 - Pick 51
Dayton
• 6'7"
/ 220 lbs
Camara improved each season in college and blossomed into having a banner season last year with Dayton, functioning in essence as a No. 1 scorer and rebounder. His game projects nicely as a potential role player given his size and defensive tenacity.
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Round 2 - Pick 52
Florida
• 6'10"
/ 250 lbs
Given how thin the draft is on bigs, Castleton should be seen as a nice second-round value here for the Suns. He averaged 3.0 blocks per game at Florida last season and had a 9.2% block rate that rated top-20 among all qualifying college basketball players, per KenPom data.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 2 - Pick 53
Emoni Bates
SG
Eastern Michigan
• 6'8"
/ 170 lbs
Once viewed as one of the best prospects in all of basketball, Bates spent two seasons in college -- first at Memphis and most recently at Eastern Michigan -- where he struggled to score it efficiently and fit within a winning system. Still, there could be some late-second round interest in a player of his pedigree given how natural a scorer he is at his size.
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Round 2 - Pick 54
Arkansas
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
Council quietly led a star-studded Arkansas team in scoring last season despite taking a big step back in efficiency as a scorer. In the right role his athleticism and spot-up shooting could help him catch on.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 2 - Pick 55
Miami (Fla.)
• 6'5"
/ 194 lbs
A smooth lefty with a big game, Miller was a key piece of Miami's Final Four run who brings toughness and outside shooting to potentially operate as a depth piece in the NBA on the wing.
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Round 2 - Pick 56
NC State
• 6'4"
/ 160 lbs
I've long been a fan of Smith's game and think at No. 56 this could be nice value for Memphis to add a scoring specialist. He has a slender frame that may concern some on how he'll fit into the NBA, but there's a clear talent here with his ability to fill it up.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 2 - Pick 57
Isaiah Wong
SG
Miami (Fla.)
• 6'3"
/ 185 lbs
If loving combo guards who can create and score at all three levels is Wong, then I don't want to be right. (Work with me here.) Wong had a career year for the Hurricanes and was sensational in the NCAA Tournament as an inside-out scorer and facilitator.
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Round 2 - Pick 58
TCU
• 6'2"
/ 195 lbs
Miles had a tough showing at the Combine but he is a tough guard and winner who makes the pieces around him better. Plays with a chip on his shoulder and has the want-to to earn an opportunity to make a team.
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